Posted on 09/28/2002 6:43:03 PM PDT by editto
SENATE 2002
Key Races
Here is a compiled list (summary and short analysis) of some key races in the Senate.
The races I've listed are: AR, CO, IA, MN, MO, NH, NJ, NC, SC, SD, TN, TX.
Also included are projections from various online sources.
Sources: Washington Post, C-SPAN.org, CNN.com, ABCNEWS.com, CBSNews.com. Council for a Livable World (CLW), MyDD.com, Cook Political Report, Various campaign websites
Arkansas
Senate history: 1 term (1997-present) Washington Post: leans Republican ABC, CBS, CLW: Toss-up Cook: We expect this contest to go down to the wire and don't see either candidate opening up a comfortable lead. |
Arkansas House: 1991-1994 MyDD.com: Projected Democrat win. |
Colorado
Senate history: 1 term (1997-present) Washington Post, ABC, CBS: Toss-up CLW: Republican narrowly favored MyDD.com: Projected Republican win. Cook: Our guess is that Allard maintains a slim lead but is well under 50 percent. |
No prior elected office (attorney) Ran against Wayne Allard in 1996. |
Iowa
Senate history: 3 terms (1985-present) Washington Post, CBS: leaning Democrat ABC: Democrat favored CLW: Democrat narrowly favored MyDD.com: Projected Democrat win. Cook: Although Harkin continues to maintain an advantage here, Ganske has closed the gap and this is a high single-digit competitive race that borders on but doesn't quite fall into the Toss Up column. |
U.S. House: 1995-present |
Minnesota
Senate history: 2 terms (1991-present) Had previously pledged to only serve two terms, but now seeking third term. Washington Post: leaning Democrat ABC, CBS, CLW: Toss-up MyDD.com: Projected Democrat win. Cook: This race is in the margin of error today, regardless of whether Wellstone or Coleman is ahead and is destined to go down to the wire. |
Mayor of St. Paul (1993-2002) |
Missouri
Senate history: 1 partial term (2001-2002) Appointed to fill term of late husband Mel Carnahan. Missouri law has prompted this special election, and Carnahan is running to complete the remaining four years of her term. Washington Post: leaning Democrat ABC, CBS: Toss-up CLW: Democrat narrowly favored Cook: Our assessment is that Carnahan may have a lead today, but it is not much outside the margin of error Given that Missouri is a swing state, this race is likely to stay close until the end. |
Missouri House: 1985-1992 Lost Missouri Governors race in 2000. MyDD.com: Projected Republican win. |
New Hampshire former seat of Bob Smith (R)
U.S. House: 1997-present Sununu beat incumbent Sen. Bob Smith in New Hampshires primary election. Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CLW: Toss-up MyDD.com: Projected Republican win. Cook: [This race should prove to be] very close and could easily go either way. |
New Hampshire Senate: 1990-1996 |
New Jersey
Senate history: 1 term (1997-present) ABC, CBS, CLW: Toss-up MyDD.com: Projected Democrat win. Cook: [I]t appears that Torricelli will be in for the most difficult race of his career [W]e have moved the race to the Toss Up column. |
No prior elected office (professor, businessman) Washington Post: leaning Republican
|
North Carolina former seat of Jesse Helms (R)
No prior elected office U.S. Sec. of Transportation (1983-1987) Dole is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Jesse Helms. Washington Post, CBS: leaning Republican ABC, CLW: Republican favored. MyDD.com: Projected Republican win. Cook: This should be a competitive general election, but Dole begins with a lead and the race stays in the Lean Republican column. |
No prior elected office Small Business Admin. Dir. (1993-1994)
|
South Carolina former seat of Strom Thurmond (R)
South Carolina House: 1993-1994 Graham is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Strom Thurmond. Washington Post, ABC: Republican favored CBS: leaning Republican CLW: Graham narrowly favored Cook: Sanders is a solid candidate who will keep this race competitive. Graham, though, currently holds the advantage in the race and as long as he does not make a serious mistake, he is in a good position to win the seat. |
No prior elected office (professor, attorney) MyDD.com: Projected Democrat upset win.
|
South Dakota
Senate history: 1 term (1997-present) Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CLW: Toss-up Cook: We continue to believe that this is a race that will be decided by a small number of voters This race is as close as they get. |
U.S. House: 1997-present MyDD.com: Projected Republican win. |
Tennessee former seat of Fred Thompson (R)
Tennessee Governor: 1979-1987 Alexander is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Fred Thompson. Washington Post, CBS: leaning Republican ABC: Republican favored. CLW: Republican narrowly favored MyDD.com: Projected Republican win. Cook: The race has defied the conventional wisdom since the day it started and thus is worth watching pretty closely. Having said that, Alexander begins the general election with the advantage but it is considerably less than it was several months ago. |
Tennessee Public Svc. Cmsn.: 1973-1979 |
Texas former seat of Phil Gramm (R)
Bexar County District Judge: 1984-1990 Cornyn is seeking to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Phil Gramm. Washington Post: leaning Republican ABC, CBS, CLW: Toss-up Cook: [This race] has a very long way to go and remains a toss up. |
Texas Secretary of State: 1994 MyDD.com: Projected Democrat win. |
9.24.2002
SANDERS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE: Garin-Hart-Yang leaked the following poll yesterday, and The Hotline has dutifully picked it up. Note that this poll ran while the "Council for a Livable World" ad was running, but before the flag burning ad went up on TV. If Sanders is closing, it's no wonder that Lindsey is going negative.
From the Hotline
SOUTH CAROLINA: Sanders Poll Has Graham Lead Down To Single Digits
A Garin-Hart-Yang (D) poll, conducted 9/18-19 for ex-College of Charleston pres. Alex Sanders (D), surveyed 600 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4% (Hotline sources, 9/23). Tested: Sanders and Rep. Lindsey Graham (R-03).
General Election Matchup
9/18-19
Graham 46%
Sanders 38
DK/Other 16
Current Name ID
Graham 91%
Sanders 80
8/27-30
Graham 49%
Sanders 34
DK/Other 17
5/20-22
Graham 45%
Sanders 33
DK/Other 22
3/02
Graham 49%
Sanders 29
DK/Other 22
From the polling memo: "Thanks in large measure" to TV ads which highlight "the stark differences between the two candidates on the issue of Social Security privatization," Sanders has moved to within single digits of Graham. Moreover, Sanders "definitely has the potential to grow his support once he further increases" his name I.D. Among the "subsample" of voters "who recognize both candidates, the trial heat further narrows" to Graham 46% Sanders 42% (Hotline sources, 9/24).
5:46 PM
The source for this is the Wyeth Wire.
What if we had an elction and no one showed up?
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