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I agree.

This was just an attempt to gather information from various online sources I've been looking at into one brief listing. Predicting election outcomes is a shaky science at best -- case in point, the 2000 Presidential election.

My own personal view and prediction is that Democrats Bob Torricelli (NJ) and Tim Johnson (SD) will lose their seats to their Republican challengers. It's possible that Democrat Jean Carnahan will lose her seat to Jim Talent, but I don't think that's a safe bet at this point. It's also possible that the Republicans may lose one seat in Arkansas Senator Tim Hutchinson, so that might be offset anyway.

In any case, I think it's a relatively safe bet that we're looking a 51-48-1 GOP Senate next year.

I would say that our Republican Senator, in Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith is quite vulnerable. Oregon has elected Dem Gov. several elections running and went to Gore, by a thin margin, in 2000. The state is trending Dem.

I got a "non-partisan" brochure at my house from the Sierra Club urging me to vote for Bradburry, the Dem, today. What a joke campaign finance reform is if 401(c) can put out a blatently political add like that. Not that I care.

I certainly hope you're right. As you say though, predictions this far out on races this close are really iffy. If I were forced to bet today, I'd bet the net change at +/- 1 seat.