Republicans Lead in House Races - Barely

NewsMax ^ | 9/27/02 | Limbacher

[aristeides]

If things keep going the way they are now, the Republicans may get something like 30 out of the 40 competitive seats. Add 20 (30 minus 10) to a lead of 10 among the safe seats, and that gives you a House majority of 30.

[ecomcon]

Big Time bump.

[billhilly]

We are a wee bit optimistic aren't u? &^D

[VRW Conspirator]

...wrote Times reporter Adam Clymer who notes that the unusually small number of competitive districts gives the Democrats fewer opportunities to achieve the net gain of seven seats they need to regain the control they lost in the Republican landslide of 1994.

Check the source.

[BlackRazor]

FYI

[1L]

Check the source.

Good point. But some idiot journalists are just wrong and stupid. Other idiot journalists are wrong because they are biased, so anything they write should be ratcheted toward conservatives. I.E., if they say we will pick up 20 seats, you can bet that's true, but it will be more like 25 or 30.

Now, the question is, which kind of idiot clymer is.

[js1138]

Get the real thingy.

[BluH2o]

Say what you may ... but I remember 1994 (Clinton's first midterm) and the 'Rats got their butts kicked big time. It was the first time, as I recall, in forty years the republicans managed a majority in Congress. Clinton, after enormity of the loss sank in, was reduced to running around the country declaring he was still "relevant"! Don't think Bush will have that problem.

[jmaroneps37]

This is Democrat psyops ( military term for psychlogical operations) I've done some research on these races and I get, worst case we pick up 3 seats - this is the number that Denny Hastert uses so you know it's low. The most likely outcome is plus 11, and if all falls into place we get 16 new seats. W and Rove are "Nationalizing" this election and it's working very well.

[Torie]

Sorry, the GOP will NOT be gaining 20 seats in the House this cycle. A gain of about 10 is about tops. More likely it will be close to 0, say 0-5.

[Torie]

Every close race goes GOP eh, along with a couple not so close?

[aristeides]

To go from a majority of 6 to a majority of 30, you only need to pick up half of 24, i.e., 12 seats, not 20.

[hchutch]

I'd figure in the range of 5 to 12 seats in the House.

In the Senate, I figure a net gain of four.

We will lose Hutchinson, but we take out Johnson, Carnahan, Cleland, Wellstone, and Torricelli. If we get REALLY lucky, we bump off Harkin and hold Hutchinson's seat.

Chafee may or may not bolt, so that gives us a 52-46-2 arrangement. Enough to confirm judges. Better case is the 54-44-2 alignment, but I'm not sure we succeed on that front.

[Torie]

Ya I get mixed up between number of seats over a majority, and the number of seats difference between the parties, which is twice as much. It gives me a headache.

[kcvl]

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[KQQL]

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[Congressman Billybob]

This article repeats the central -- and I think deliberate -- mistake from the Times article by Adam Clymer, yes, that "clymer." The recognized experts on congressional races are Rothenberg (honest Democrat) and Cook (honest Republian). Neither was asked how many seats are "in play," which they define as "expected to have a winning margin of less than 5%."

Had they been asked, they both would have said about 20 seats, not the 40 that clymer claims without giving any basis. And to take control of the House with a one-seat margin, the Democrats would have to take 70% of the races that are in play.

For an article which is far more factual than the clymer-Times one (and therefore the NewsMax one which is based on that), and which does reference Cook and Rothenberg on this essential point, try the first link below, and be sure to click on the revised Table 1.

Congressman Billybob

Click for "Til Death Do Us Part."

Click for "to Restore Trust in America"

Click for "I am almost out of ideas"

[Congressman Billybob]

I am in print with a detailed analysis that is the cover story for the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. Suffice to say, those readers insist on enough statistics to choke a horse. I come down at 5-7 Republican gain in the House. That's been my position since November of last year, here on FR.

I've also got the Senate at a Republican gain of 1-3. However, my analysis assumed that Robert ("the Un-Bribed") Torricelli would sleaze his way to victory. It now looks like the Torch will be blown out, making my estimate for the Senate off by one.

Check the first link below.

Congressman Billybob

Click for "Til Death Do Us Part."

Click for "to Restore Trust in America"

Click for "I am almost out of ideas"

[wimpycat]

It doesn't seem to be looking too good for the Democrats right now, but the elections are five weeks away. A lot can happen in five weeks. What are your thoughts on what sorts of things can go wrong for the Republicans between now and November 5th, and how likely are they to happen?