Isidore Stationary--Likely to Start Move\ing Very Soon

National Hurricane Center/Wunderground/NOAA ^ | September 23, 2002 10:00 pm CDT | National Hurricane Center

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Isidore Advisory Number 32 Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 23, 2002 ...Isidore still stationary and barely a tropical storm but likely to start moving very soon... A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Veracruz. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Isidore. At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Isidore was located near latitude 20.5 north...longitude 89.3 west or about 40 miles...65 km...south-southeast of Merida Mexico. Isidore remains nearly stationary. However a slow northwestward motion is expected to begin very soon...bringing the center back into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Further weakening is likely as long as the center remains over land...but Isidore should begin to strengthen after it moves over water. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles ...280 km from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches. Very heavy rains continue to affect the Yucatan Peninsula...other portions of eastern Mexico...and the northern portions of Central America. Additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are likely. Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is likely in areas of onshore winds over the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and elsewhere along the coast of Mexico from campeche westward to near Veracruz. Tides are running 1 to 2 feet above normal along much of the remainder of the Gulf Coast...and this combined with large swells generated by Isidore may cause some coastal flooding and beach erosion. Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...20.5 N... 89.3 W. Movement ...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT...Tuesday. Forecaster Pasch

Computer Model Forecast 31A Tue Sep 24 12AM GMT

Computer Model Animated Fields

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Loop (Large)

Satellite Loop (Small)

[NautiNurse]

New thread with links to conserve bandwidth

[NautiNurse]

Ping list ready?

[Dog Gone]

Latest update

[NautiNurse]

Meanwhile, Lili is getting closer. Moving W at 17 mph. 60 mph sustained winds, with strengthening predicted. 1006 MB

Lili Storm Track Models

[Dog Gone]

Tropical Storm Isidore Discussion Number 32
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2002

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Isidore has 
moved very little over the past several hours.  It is still expected 
that a mid-tropospheric ridge will build to the east of the tropical 
cyclone...and force a generally northward motion over the next 
couple of days.  Guidance from the NCEP global forecast 
system...GFS...shows a somewhat faster motion and is a little to the 
east of the previous model run.  It is not clear what is causing 
this change...but perhaps some of the earlier observations from the 
NOAA G-IV jet have been assimilated in the 18z run of the GFS.  The 
jet data should be completely utilized in the next...ooz...run so we 
shall soon see whether the faster and more northeastward motion is 
confirmed.  For this advisory...the forecast track is adjusted to 
the east and is slightly faster than that from the previous 
advisory...but is still a little slower and west of the new GFS 
track.  The 36-48 hr forecast points and wind field suggest that a 
Hurricane Watch may be required for the northern Gulf Coast on 
Tuesday morning...provides Isidore starts to move soon.

Isidore is barely a tropical storm...if at all.  Strongest winds are 
probably confined to a few spots in the coastal waters around 
Yucatan...and the system will probably be downgraded to a depression 
on the next advisory.  However since there is weak vertical shear 
and a broad area of upper-level anticylonic outflow over 
Isidore...re-intensification should commence once the center moves 
back over the water.  The big question is how much Isidore will 
re-strengthen.  As noted earlier...this depends largely on how soon 
the tropical cyclone's inner core is re-established.  Once that 
happens...assuming it does...significant strengthening is possible.  
Bearing in mind the great uncertainties in intensity forecasting... 
Isidore could be near category two strength as it approaches the 
northern Gulf Coast.

 
Forecaster Pasch

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial     24/0300z 20.5n  89.3w    35 kts
12hr VT     24/1200z 21.8n  90.0w    40 kts
24hr VT     25/0000z 23.5n  90.7w    50 kts
36hr VT     25/1200z 25.4n  91.2w    65 kts
48hr VT     26/0000z 27.5n  91.5w    80 kts
72hr VT     27/0000z 32.5n  90.0w    30 kts...inland

[NautiNurse]

Waiting for Izzie to move is like waiting for grass to grow--on second thought, my grass has grown more than this storm has moved in over 24 hours.

[Ditter]

The only comment I have about this hurricane that is mired in the Yucatan jungles is "issy done"? I hope he is done!

[Diddle E. Squat]

Strike probabilities(in %) for now through Thursday evening from the NHC:


CEDAR KEY FL - 2
ST MARKS FL - 4
APALACHICOLA FL - 5
PANAMA CITY FL - 7
PENSACOLA FL - 11
MOBILE AL - 13
GULFPORT MS - 15
BURAS LA - 18
NEW ORLEANS LA - 19
NEW IBERIA LA - 21

PORT ARTHUR TX - 18
GALVESTON TX - 16
FREEPORT TX - 14
PORT O CONNOR TX - 10
CORPUSCHRISTI TX - 5
BROWNSVILLE TX - 3

[NautiNurse]

The NHC is sure sticking to their position on Thursday U.S. landfall.

[seeker41]

Thanks for the update, went grocery shopping tonight just in case.

[seeker41]

Thanks for the update.

[Charles Henrickson]

The Perpetual Storm.

I think Janet Reno will get to Tallahassee before Isidore will.

[blam]

Thanks for the update. New Orleans has the highest strike probability.... (I wouldn't have guessed that.)

[blam]

..Correction...New Iberia, La. has the highest strike probability.

[DentsRun]

For a storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, Isidore is sure getting a lot of attention. Here in Los Angeles even the most gentle April shower (not that we have many showers in April) is invariably classified as a storm. I wouldn't mind a real storm for a change. All we've had for the last 600 days is continual sun, lots of heat, white skies and today, the worst smog I've seen in 20 years.

[NautiNurse]

Looks like things are starting to move again.

The center of Izzie is over the Yucatan coast. Moving NW at 9 mph, expect a gradual increase in forward speed today, along with a turn to NNW, then N.

All computer models forecast a Louisiana landfall (ok, one sneaks into MS).

[NautiNurse]

Meanwhile, the current forecast for TS Lili shows a Friday arrival at Camp Gitmo.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Thank you very much for the ping.

[NautiNurse]

Lili is forecast to be a hurricane in 36 hours, and Kyle in 48h.

[Dog Gone]

Tropical Storm Isidore Discussion Number 33
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 24, 2002

 
satellite images and surface observations from Merida Mexico 
indicate that the poorly defined center of Isidore is about to move 
back over water...just north of that site.  A reconnaissance plane 
checking the area over water around the Yucatan Peninsula measured 
5000-foot flight-level peak winds of 76 knots to the east-northeast 
of the center and a dropsonde measured 44 knots at the surface. 
Therefore initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 knots in this 
advisory.  Isidore has a very large circulation and because the 
cyclone lacks an inner core...the strong winds are well removed from 
the center. Both...the large scale environment and oceanic 
conditions are very favorable for restrenghtening. However...it is 
not known how long it will take for the boundary layer and the inner 
core to recover from all the time the cyclone has been over land.  
Past experience with other tropical cyclones suggests that it would 
take about 36 to 48 hours. Some intensification is indicated but it 
is highly unlikely that Isidore regains its former intensity.    

As global models forecast...a subtropical ridge is developing over 
the western Atlantic and is begining to steer isodore toward the 
northwest about 6 knots. A gradual turn to the north-northwest and 
north around the periphery of the ridge with a gradual increase in 
forward speed is expected. The tropical cyclone should be nearing 
the northern Gulf Coast in about 48 hours. This is in good agreement 
with most of the track guidance.

A Hurricane Watch for portions of the northern Gulf of mexcico will 
probably be issued later this morning.