Posted on 09/22/2002 8:01:54 AM PDT by jpsb
The other active thread has getting a little long and loading slow. lot's of graphics.
But the big question for all Gulf Coast Freepers is "Will Isidore Turn North?" Three of five computer models say yes. Any expert care to way in? What would cause a turn to the north? How would we recogise the early signs of a change in direction. etc, etc, etc.
SUNDAY MORNING: ISADORE SHOULD MOVE OVER YUCATAN, DOES ANYONE ELSE SEE THAT?
I am convinced Isadore is going ashore this afternoon and tonight over the northwest Yucatan. The storm is embedded in a flow that is almost parallel to the coast, but with the weakening of the southern side of the storm over land, the northern side remains intense and literally forces a turn to the southwest. This means that the center should turn southwest and maybe even south. The more it does this, the less west it will get, and so the greater the chance for the hit on the United States. Only a straight west path argues for the Mexican coast now. The more southwest it goes, the less west it goes, and with the changes taking place it means that the storm will not be far enough west for it to avoid the rising heights to the east. Therefore the European is still my model of choice and the UKMET has come around to it.
This means option number 2, big storm hit Thursday or Friday, most likely Louisiana or a bit further east is the idea. By big storm I mean a strong 2 or a three 2. I think the Yucatan will take at least 30 mb out of this. However since final landfall is still at least 4 days away, there is a chance it could come back to the 934 it has hit this morning. In any case the idea is that this turns into a rapidly moving rainstorm coming right through the area that needs rain the worst from the last couple of months. Thats been my story and I am sticking to it.
Elsewhere..madness takes control. Height rises are starting over the northwest Caribbean as the pinwheel upper low is lifting out. US models continue to insist there will be development out of this some way or another. The call here is that this will be an appendage of low pressure riding north mid and late week in tandem with Isadore. Still, there is obviously something going on in there as its not just the leftovers of Isadore.
Kyle looks to me like it will stay well out. Again United States models have decided to take this west to Bermuda. This does not look very likely to me, though it can be blocked. The next threat to the states is out system at 11 and 52, which looks like a tropical storm . I have no changes on this from previous posts below.
LA/MS/AL Freepers--the odds historically are with a strike in your direction. Other storms have continued into Mexico. I like that one the best.
Three of them have it tracking in the general direction of Brownsville, one towards Beaumont, TX, and one towards Lafayette, LA. The others have it moving slowly north, but don't have it approaching land by the end of the forecast period.
I'm not able to judge what weather factors are likely to develop that will steer the storm; I can only speculate about what I'm reading.
In general, I'd say that the storm seems most likely to begin veering NW toward south Texas in the next couple of days, and we'll just have to keep watching it. If it ever starts moving in a due northerly direction then I think it's extremely likely to land a punishing blow to the upper Texas gulf coast or Louisiana by late in the week.
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