GERMAN ELECTION (Running Thread): Schroeder by a Nosehair

Die Welt- translated ^ | 9/22/02 | Die Welt

[RobFromGa]

Election turnout probably smaller than 1998

Large opinion

Berlin/Rostock (dpa) - with the election to the Bundestag a smaller participation than before drew four years starting from 1998 lay it Germany far with 82,2 per cent in the late Sunday afternoon. However the returning officers reported high letter voter at the same time of a ratio. Everywhere the letter voters were not already taken in account. Thus a factor of uncertainty remained existing.

As one inquires around approximately three hours before locking of the polling stations resulted in, to against 15.00 o'clock in most Lands of the Federal Republic a clearly lower election turnout was registered. In Saxonia-Anhalt the participation lay at this time approximately 15 points under the values of the yearly 1998, in other Lands of the Federal Republic up to eight points. Also in the capital went to Berlin with herbstlich to cool weather clearly less voter to the urns.

On the other hand there was the tendency in few other Lands of the Federal Republic also to an easily higher election turnout - in such a way in Schleswig-Holstein and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where at the same time a new federal state parliament was selected.

In Saxonia the returning officers spoke first of a surprisingly large resonance, then the interest decreased/went back however clearly. Also in Bavaria the choice encountered in the first hours in some cities a substantially larger interest than 1998. There the participation up to 12 per cent points in the comparison rose to the same time before four years. Against noon this tendency decreased/went back likewise, of a clear minus was later spoken. It was similar in North Rhine-Westphalia and Hamburg.

From other Lands of the Federal Republic a rather weak resonance was determined. In Hessen, Thuringia, Saarland and Bremen the values decreased/went back. Also in Rhineland-Palatinate, Brandenburg and Lower Saxony the crush was smaller than 1998. In Baden-Wuerttemberg it meant: Election turnout constantly.

The polling stations for the election to the Bundestag had opened o'clock punctually at 08.00. 61,2 million Federal citizen were called to select a new parliament. With the election of the federal parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were entitled to vote about 1.4 million citizen.

After last inquiries and prognoses to the exit the SPD with Federal Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was appropriate for the election to the Bundestag scarcely before the union with her candidate for the chancellorship Edmund Stoiber (CSU). Since also the smaller parties FDP and the Green were strongly estimated approximately in each case equal, the continuation of the red-green coalition was considered as uncertain. For a government majority in the parliament it could be crucial whether the Party of Democratic Socialism draws again into the Bundestag or not.

The Social Democrats set to come into the proximity of their result from 1998 to. At that time they reached 40.9 per cent of the secondary voices. CDU/CSU had slipped before four years to 35,1 per cent, their secondaryworst result with elections to the Bundestag. The Greens reached 6.7 per cent, the FDP came on 6,2 per cent. The Party of Democratic Socialism overcame the five-per cent hurdle with 5,1 per cent scarcely.

After last inquiries in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania a confirmation of the red-red coalition of SPD and Party of Democratic Socialism under head of the government Harald Ringstorff (SPD) applied as extremely probable. 1998 had the SPD 34.3, which reaches Party of Democratic Socialism 24.4 and the CDU 30.2 per cent.

[Cicero]

Yesterday an analysis was posted that said that Schroeder would gain from a high turnout, especially of women. So presumably a low turnout wil hurt him. But who knows whether the anlysis was correct?

[July 4th]

Not good...we're looking at a 301-297 seat split. That's one shaky coalition.

[July 4th]

BUT, that's a shaky coalition! :)

[eabinga]

These are calculated estimates....it will change, perhaps a lot as the evening progresses

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

Can anyone make any predictions based on this translated article with less than 2 hours to go?

my prediction is Germany will still suck

[brydic1]

The exit polls are now all over the place. It looks like a Florida situation.

[eabinga]

Maybe they will have the BIG coalition Stoiber and Schröder..

[RobFromGa]

"Get out of Stoiber's House!!!"

[The Person]

As I read it, based on exit polls, Schroeder will get about what he got last time (or at least slightly better than his opponent), but because that will be far short of a majority, much depends on how the small parties shake out.

That's how I read it.

[Lessismore]

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2274521.stm

German left leads poll


Schroeder looks set to return to power

Exit polls indicate a razor-thin victory for Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD) in the German general election.

Exit poll
SPD: 38%
CDU: 38%
Greens: 9%
FDP: 7./5%
PDS: 4%
Source: ZDF television

With their coalition partners, the Greens, they have 47% of the vote, the polls say, compared to 45.5% for the traditional pairing of conservatives and liberals.

The gap between the SPD and the conservative Christian Democrats is the smallest in post-war history.

The result caps a remarkable recovery for the chancellor's party, which was five per cent behind the conservatives in the polls at the beginning of August and looked set for certain defeat.

Personalities

Mr Schroeder's confident handling of the country's flood crisis last month, and his outspoken opposition to war against Iraq gave his party a last-minute boost.

Personalities played a bigger role than in any previous German election, and issues a smaller one.

This was the first German election in which the two leading candidates for chancellor, Mr Schroeder, and conservative leader, Edmund Stoiber, took part in televised presidential-style debates.

Though these were expected to favour the charismatic, media-friendly Mr Schroeder, some observers judged Mr Stoiber the winner in the first of the two debates.

Throughout the later stages of the campaign, Mr Stoiber was unsuccessful in his attempts to make the SPD's unimpressive economic record the main issue in voter's minds.

[eabinga]

Now if the commies get another seat, and a big coalition is out of the question, then there can be no government. REELECTIONS!!

[eabinga]

Nazi Parties (REP and NPD together): 1%

[SkyRat]

I know "Herbst" is Fall, so herbstlich might be fall-like? I guess urns are the ballot boxes?

Yes and Yes

[RobFromGa]

Maybe they will have the BIG coalition Stoiber and Schroeder

Just call it the Anti-American coalition and you can get a 100% agreement.

[eabinga]

[eabinga]

37.1
39.1
9.4
7.2
4.2

[southernnorthcarolina]

How is it looking in Weimar?

My very capitalistic dog wants to know.

[mrs9x]

Ok, I don't see how the BBC says that Schroeder is definitely back in power. 37.1% for the SPD plus 9.4% for the greens = 46.5%. 39.1% for the CDU + 7.2% for the FDP = 46.3%. Add in the individual seats, and it is extremely close, but not necessarily a victory for the left

[inkling]

How do you say "dangling chad" in German?

[tomahawk]

The Greens are doing better than expected. This means that at least 10% of Germans are certifiably nuts.