SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AS TD BERTHA MOVES SOUTH INTO GULF OF MEXICO

National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center ^ | August 6, 2002 | National Hurricane Center

[varina davis]

Statement as of 7:30 PM EDT on August 6, 2002

...Amended to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Cristobal... For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristobal...located about 335 miles east of Jacksonville Florida.

Tropical Depression Bertha is located near LaFayette Louisiana and is moving slowly southward. This system is producing locally heavy rainfall....especially east of the low-level center.

It is possible that the depression could move back over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and become a more significant tropical cyclone by Thursday. For more information...

[varina davis]

Looks like TD, once TS Bertha is trying for a comeback in the Gulf of Mexico after making landfall in Louisiana. All interests along the gulf coast need to be alert.

[blam]

Lafayette, Louisiana Radar

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

ummm, I live down here and havent heard that

[blam]

"ummm, I live down here and havent heard that"

LOL, all I did was post the radar map. (I live in Mobile and hadn't heard it either)

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[Alas Babylon!]

No, I went to your link and they are NOT reporting this. The National Weather Service has issued its LAST alert on Bertha, according to their web site:

BERTHA HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SSW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE SW. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 20 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB.

[deport]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA
   Public Advisory    

---

000
WTNT32 KWNH 062054
TCPAT2
ZCZC NFDTCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KWNH DDHHMM 

TROPICAL SUMMARY NUMBER 10 FOR T.D. "BERTHA"
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD
4 PM CDT TUES AUG 6 2002

...T.D. BERTHA IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EAST OF
THE CENTER OVER PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BOGUE
CHITO RIVER NEAR BUSH LA... THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER NEAR FOLSOM LA...
AND THE BOGUE FALAYA RIVER NEAR COVINGTON LA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER PEARL RIVER... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WHICH IS
APPROXIMATELY 34 MILES NORTH OF LAFAYETTE LA. 

BERTHA HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SSW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK  TO THE SW.  THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING IT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB.    

AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  STREAM FLOODING AND PONDING OF ROADWAYS REMAINS A
THREAT.   
SELECTED 30 HOUR STORM RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 1 PM CDT ARE
LISTED BELOW.
LOCATION                      AMOUNT
=========                     ========
MCCOMB-PIKE COUNTY, MS        4.79"
TYLERTOWN-2WNW, MS       5.36" THROUGH 7AM 24 HOUR TOTAL
PASCAGOULA-LOTT, MS      1.42"     
FRANKLINTON-5SW, LA           7.49" THROUGH 7AM 24 HOUR TOTAL
ANGIE, LA                     4.04" THROUGH 7AM 24 HOUR TOTAL
NEW ORLEANS-LAKEFRONT, LA     0.42" 
MOBILE, AL                         1.12"             

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...30.7N...92.0W. MOVEMENT...DRIFTING
TO THE SSW OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 11 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE
NEXT TROPICAL SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. 

HILDERBRAND/KELLS/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

[dennis1x]

weather idiots annoy me....

first of all, bertha, it read "more significant", much different than significant.

second of all, the "c" storm, it is not "paralleling florida" it is moving completely AWAY from florida

weather idiots annoy me.

[Humidston]

11 MPH????

You gotta be kidding!

[ItisaReligionofPeace]

Idiots annoy me.

[Lucas1]

Actually the C storm is not moving totally away from Florida. The movement over the past three days has been more southward. This has been against what the Hurricane Center has been predicting. A new center may be forming under the heavier convection. The storm actually is moving parallel to the coast of Florida...as it continues to move southward. Florida is not out of the woods yet...nor is the Southeast United States. I would be careful who you call an idiot...they were not wrong in their statement about the C storm...

[eastforker]

If it does drift back into the gulf,wich is likely on its current movement,we may catch hell here in houston.

[dennis1x]

yes they are...just wait..

[varina davis]

SEE PUBLIC ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.

Excuse. Go to the above for the report.

[varina davis]

Actually the C storm is not moving totally away from Florida. The movement over the past three days has been more southward. This has been against what the Hurricane Center has been predicting. A new center may be forming under the heavier convection. The storm actually is moving parallel to the coast of Florida...as it continues to move southward. Florida is not out of the woods yet...nor is the Southeast United States. I would be careful who you call an idiot...they were not wrong in their statement about the C storm...

Thanks, Lucas1. The NHC/TPC is not faring very well so far this season. It appears the LLC is now south of 30 N and the trof expected to pick it up is considerably N of the center, thus not likely to have a major influence.

Though it may not impact the Florida east coast, it certainly could and it's way too close for anyone to be cavalier about it. Thanks again.

[NELSON111]

and the trof expected to pick it up is considerably N of the center, thus not likely to have a major influence.

I very much so disagree with that statement. The trof is going to have a major influence on this storm. The trof is still to the north but digging southward fairly fast (about 40 kts). Not only will this open the storm up and slide it ENEward...it is also going to shear the system tremendously. This trof will also shear what is left of Bertha (due to the high shifting wward). The LLC of bertha is sitting along the southern coast of LA ATM. The mid level is over LFT. The shear will increase by morning.

[varina davis]

Nelson111, here is the 11 p.m. update. Please note the paragraph beginning with "however." An ENE turn is far from certain at this point.

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002

...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL STILL DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...495 KM...DUE EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

CRISTOBAL IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR... BUT THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT PRESENTLY WELL DEFINED SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT...WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[NELSON111]

We'll see. Been in the weather biz for 15 years and I know that anything is possible...but it is going to be very tough for a system like this to withstand that trof without getting the crud sheared out of it. The other thing that will impact it is the dry air it is going to suck in with the cold front...which is already in central Georgia and moving off the SC coast. I've also read the NHC mumbo jumbo enough to know (and listened to enough NHC/NWS conference calls) when they are hedging their bets. If they really thought there might be a chance...they would mention possible storm watches in the discussion (which will usually occur 12-24 hours before they issue). This will be the clue to what they think. Don't bet the house on "However".

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

you are an idiot. Weather service expects "C" storm to drift south and get picked up by the front and move out to the Atlantic.

[wardaddy]

That is much more of a threat than 11 knots but still it's not exatly ominous..yet.