Posted on 07/25/2002 5:27:33 PM PDT by RCW2001
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| JULY 26, 2002 | | current issue | back issues | subscribe | |
Us and Dems: Jews Still Not Voting GOP
By IRA FORMAN"It seems clear that, come November 7, hundreds upon thousands of Jews will be violating the Eleventh Commandment: Thou shalt not vote Republican."
"There is an evolution away from the [notion] that it's immoral to vote conservative, or that you must as a Jew vote Democratic."
"Jewish voters... are finding the Republican Party increasingly attractive."
The above declarations could have been lifted from any one of scores of op-eds, news articles or analysis pieces that have appeared in the national media over the last two months. But they were not. They are quotes from conservative spokesmen, pulled from stories published during the last three decades in such periodicals as the National Journal and The New York Times.
But despite these 30 years of prediction of a Republican realignment in the Jewish community, the last ten years have witnessed a resurgence of Jewish support for Democratic candidates. According to the one definitive survey of American Jewish voting, the VNS exit poll data from the 1972-2002 elections, Jews have gone from voting 2-1 Democratic in the 1970s and 1980s to 3-1 or 4-1 in the 1990s and the 2000 election.
From this data, one might assume that this phenomenon — ongoing false predictions of Jewish Republican voting — is more a reflection of the wishful thinking of Republican Jews who have been wandering in the political wilderness for 80 years than of any real sustained voting patterns.
The first clue to this wishful thinking is the changing reasons given over time for the impending shift in voting patterns. In the past we were told that Jews were becoming Republicans because they were becoming the wealthiest subsection of American society and thus were beginning to vote their pocketbooks. Later, when the rise of incomes did not induce rising Republicanism, we were told that Jews would switch to the GOP because of increasing antagonism between the community and African American Democratic politicians like Jesse Jackson. Now we are asked to believe that the reason for the "coming" change in allegiance is because Republicans and the Christian right love Israel and Democrats don't.
A second manifestation of this wishful thinking is a willingness to distort reality and engage in blatant double standards. An example of this new type of "analysis" that purports to find reasons for Jews becoming Republicans was a column published in The New York Times in April of this year titled "Democrats v. Israel." In this "analysis," Democratic Majority Leader Tom Daschle was charged with sabotaging pro-Israel legislation. Not only was the charge completely false, but Daschle was the one who broke the logjam blocking the "Israel Solidarity" legislation that passed both the House and Senate in May.
Moreover, many of the conservative analysts who derided former Democratic president Bill Clinton for policies such as refusing to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem or for trying to forge a peace agreement at Camp David in 2000 are the same folks who are strangely silent as Republican President Bush continues the Clinton policy on the embassy move and as his administration takes up the banner of creating "Palestine" as part of their own sponsorship of a peace process.
Finally, these analysts are unmasked by their creative use of voting statistics. Rather than rely on the one universally accepted set of Jewish voting data — the VNS exit polls — these folks fall back on fatally flawed partisan research, using studies with sample sizes that are so small that they are meaningless, or citing mayoral election statistics to prove changing partisan proclivities. The latter method is particularly misleading. Even in earlier decades when Jews were voting 90% Democratic in congressional and presidential elections, they continued to sometimes vote for Republican candidates for city offices — the same pattern we are seeing today. Local issues, not partisan affiliations, drive municipal elections.
When all is said and done these Republican Jewish predictions are wrong because they avoid examining the basic structure of American politics. At the beginning of the 21st century, the Republican Party draws the base of its support from the religious right. Thus 90% of the agenda of the GOP is diametrically opposed to the agenda of 90% of American Jewry.
As long as the Tom DeLays of the Republican Party accompany their support for Israel with the advice that "Christianity offers the only viable, reasonable, definitive answer" to life's questions, American Jews will find a viable, reasonable and definitive rationale to vote for pro-Israel Democratic alternatives.
Ira Forman is executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council and co-editor of the "Jews In American Politics" (Rowman & Littlefield, 2001).
That poll of young Jewish voters seems also in line with ones I've seen speaking of the black electorate. So in addition to anti-Christian bigotry, the older Jews (like blacks) still carry their outdated views of the political climate. Many still think that Republicans are the party of John Birch. As I said on another thread, many older blacks have never forgiven Republicans for Barry Goldwater's opposition to the Civil Rights Act. Perhaps younger, more open minds will see how things have changed since then.
Here's hoping. I have known many older people of all races, religions and ethnicities who still view politics through the prism of the era they came of age in. Unfortunately, for them, these were ages of Democratic dominance (30s-70s) and conservative retreat.
That's the sad part, too since most of these people have no idea that their views of morality, government waste, etc. are completely scorned by the Democratic party of today. I do hope more will change but am somewhat skeptical about mass change.
Not only that, but Forward's purpose is in part to be a voice of the Left.
Nevertheless, I don't think we're to the point where we will see much of a Jewish shift to the right. But I hope I'm wrong.
Still, what you say is good news.
Then again, the blame for the sorry political situation in New York lies not with Jews, but with white Catholics who outnumber them considerably in my state.
Oh yes, the big bad wolf of the GOP until Ashcroft came along to demonize. Guess they are dragging up all of the supposed boogie men since the election is so close.
What I'm hearing is that most won't vote this time round. Still find the Dems issues repulsive. But post 9/11, feel betrayed by Republicans.
Not getting into whys and hows, just the sad facts. Leftists like Jim Zogby and other left leaning Arabs are bound to take advantage of this feeling and try to drive the Arab/Muslim vote over to the Democrat line.
Muslims are much more socially conservative than the average American Jew on most issues. Few, unfortunatly, see past the blinders unfotunatly imposed by 9/11 to realize this.
OTOH, Palestinians couldn't ask for a better friend than the Dems and Clinton.
I can see them just waffling back and forth with the political issue of the day.
Then, 9/11... What to do? Going to decades to recover the positive feeling for the Republicans.
BLatant Lie.
British Jews break even.
In Israel, the left has not held a majority of the Jewish vote since 1977. It has been put in power each time thanks to the 15-20 % of voters who are Arab.
I could go into NYC politics, where Jews have voted for a Republican in the last 3 elections, twice against a Jewish Democrat.
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