Posted on 07/02/2002 5:58:16 AM PDT by Constitution Day
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Nobody invited Fred Clifford to the backyard party local Democrats threw for Sen. John Edwards last week in Manchester even though it was just four houses away.
"Edwards is here?" Clifford, 52, said in astonishment. He was puttering around his porch in the working-class neighborhood, wearing a worn, faded T-shirt. With applause from the nearby event drifting through the air, Clifford offered his opinion even before the question was asked.
"I hope he runs for president."
Clifford, a union activist with a bushy walrus mustache continued in his full Yankee accent: "He's got it all. He's got looks, plus he's capable, plus he's got Ted Kennedy helping him."
Power brokers at the highest levels of the Democratic Party are encouraging Edwards as he considers a run for the White House for 2004. A recent run of high-profile news stories - including a glitzy profile in The New Yorker - is helping him, too.
Clifford, who said that Kennedy is his "hero," remembers reading about the young senator from North Carolina in The Boston Globe.
Al Gore seriously considered Edwards as his vice-presidential running mate in 2000, but that may not be enough this time around. Asked by the Winston-Salem Journal if he would consider the vice-presidential nomination in 2004, Edwards had a quick answer.
"It's not something that I'm interested in."
As for whether he will run for president, Edwards - like other Democrats considering the race - has said that he won't make up his mind until early next year. Even if he does choose to run, he could still drop out of the race after primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa and concentrate on re-election to the Senate.
Republicans are fond of suggesting that Edwards is on a runaway ego trip.
Still, consideration of Edwards as a serious contender has been under way for some time. When Gore was studying potential running mates, a team of private investigators reviewing Edwards' career turned up no smoking guns.
Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, said that major players in the Democratic Party have told him that they rate Edwards as the candidate with the most potential to beat President Bush.
"It's like they all had a meeting, and they picked Edwards," Sabato said.
Jack Germond, a veteran political columnist for the Baltimore Sun and network TV commentator, said that the names he hears the most from "savvy people" are Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Edwards.
Why?
Although Edwards has been the subject of much favorable attention, Al Gore has not.
"Gore is dead meat - believe me," said Germond. "Gore can't raise any money."
Germond said he has heard many influential Democrats voice similar thoughts. Gore had his chance; he ran a terrible campaign; and the best hope for the party in 2004 is a different face.
In New Hampshire, the sentiment was much the same.
State Sen. Bev Hollingsworth is running for governor in New Hampshire this fall, and she appeared with Edwards at several events during his recent trip. Hollingsworth said she likes Gore and that he was relaxed and came across well during a visit several months ago.
Asked about 2004, she paused, bit her lip, paused again, and finally said, "I really hope he doesn't run again."
Such emotions are part of the reason influential Democrats are willing to give Edwards such a hard look.
"He has the communication skills that Gore so obviously lacked in 2000," said Sabato.
Democrats are unlikely to consider experience as a major issue when choosing a nominee, Sabato said. That can only help a candidate such as Edwards, who has just one political win on his resume - beating Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth by getting 51 percent of the vote in 1998.
"They're going to overlook anything to get a winner in 2004," Sabato said.
On the road
In New Hampshire's living-room style political system, there were echoes of what the pundits are saying.
"What a hunk!" gushed Wendy Palm, 57, after her encounter with Edwards at a backyard pig roast in Bow. "He was standing right there!"
Palm said she wouldn't vote for Edwards just because he's handsome; he impressed her in other ways.
"I think communication is the most important thing. He has charisma," she said.
The events in New Hampshire were filled with Democratic activists, and there are certainly many people in the state who have still never heard of Edwards.
"But he's not trying to convince 100 million potential voters now. It's really trying to convince about a million," Sabato said of the likely turnout for Democratic primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa in early 2004.
"You know, a million people are not that many, if you have as much money and energy as he does," he said of Edwards, who has a personal fortune estimated to be between $20 million and $30 million.
Edwards managed seven public events in six different locations over 48 hours during the trip to New Hampshire, plus a private dinner. He has campaigned in eight states since the start of this year and has visited several others to raise money. He has visited all 100 counties in North Carolina since taking office in 1999.
His political-action committee, the New American Optimists, raised more than $1.39 million in its first six months of operation, and some of his own money could help in the early stages of a campaign. Edwards also hired Tracey Buckman, a Washington fundraising consultant who was the national finance director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign in 1998. He has also hired a former aide from the Clinton White House.
"He's been clicking through the turnstiles on schedule," said Ferrel Guillory, the director of the Southern Politics, Media and Public Life program at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
"People said he wouldn't be able to impress Democrats outside of North Carolina, and he has. People said he wouldn't be able to raise money outside the state, and he has. And people said he wouldn't be able to put together a national campaign team, and he is," Guillory said. "This is still a fairly long shot, but it's pretty amazing progress."
The message
Edwards' stump speech consists of basic Democratic positions on health care, the environment, education and equal opportunity. But the way he works a crowd is a sharp contrast to more reserved politicians such as Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., or Daschle.
Edwards talks about his small-town roots, and "the heart of the American dream," hard work and the opportunity to build a better future for your children. He draws chuckles from crowds when he says the lobbyists who line the halls of the Senate "are always so glad to see you."
Edwards learned how to connect with people as a trial lawyer, and now, when he rolls up his sleeves and starts to make emphatic gestures with his hands, he comes across as genuine.
At all the speeches in New Hampshire, Edwards got the greatest response when he challenged Attorney General John Ashcroft for suggesting that people who criticize the Bush administration are helping terrorists.
"It's an outrage for an American to say something like that," Edwards said. "People like Ashcroft are wrong."
"Dangerously wrong," one person called back, prompting the crowd to erupt in spontaneous applause.
"And we are not going to be suppressed by some attorney general who disagrees with us," Edwards added, to more cheers.
At the home of New Hampshire state Rep. Linda Foster and her husband, Scott, people squeezed into the small living room as rain broke up the backyard party.
The sofa is covered in blue gingham; a copy of the New Yorker profile of Edwards is on a trunk; and red, white, and blue paper plates are on the kitchen table. A sign reads: "Parking for Democrats only. All others will be towed."
After the talk, Scott Foster said he was impressed when Edwards answered one question with an "I don't know."
"A lot of politicians will give you an answer, even if they don't know that it's right," said Foster.
Bumps in the road
During the speeches in New Hampshire Edwards repeatedly suggested that things aren't going as well as they should be in the battle against terrorism.
"It sort of feels like the Marx Brothers are running security," he said, asking if the FBI would "know serious foreign intelligence if they saw it?"
Edwards suggests that there are simple solutions to the threat, such as infiltrating terrorist cells and having more people gather intelligence on the ground. "We can get safe," he said.
His answers to questions about terrorism were much different last month, though. When asked about any advance warnings about the Sept. 11 attacks that members of congressional intelligence committees may have had, Edwards changed his tune several times. On Good Morning America, he said "there should have been bells and whistles going off" before ducking a question asked later by the Journal about whether the Senate Intelligence Committee failed to respond properly.
Although people in New Hampshire said they were worried about future attacks, most feared that the challenge is far more complicated than Edwards suggests.
Sabato wondered whether the small-town roots that Edwards draws on so successfully are also his most serious weakness when contrasted with George Bush.
"His lack of connection to the world, to international affairs," Sabato said of Edwards. "You wonder, where else has he been?"
Staff members said that Edwards visited Britain and Africa before joining the Senate and toured Israel and Egypt in August 2001. And he made a whirlwind tour of Central Asia in January. But that trip was a prime example of the restrictions that come with being a U.S. senator.
Edwards mentions during stump speeches that he visited Afghanistan; he doesn't say that security on the trip was so tight that the plane landed about 10 p.m. and left about 2 a.m. the next morning. None of the senators on the trip saw the light of day in Afghanistan.
Polls show that most voters approve of the job that Bush is doing, and in 2004 he will be able to campaign as a battle-tested president, not a hopeful who thinks he can handle the stress.
"He's had on-the-job training that few have had," Sabato said of Bush.
As Edwards develops more of a voting record in the Senate, there's also more for special-interest groups to attack. The National Organization for Women issued a blistering press release calling Edwards a "presidential wanna-be" after he voted in late May for Bush nominee Judge D. Brooks Smith in the Judiciary Committee.
Sabato said that Edwards will have to rely on more-established Democrats to get up to speed on foreign policy.
Edwards told the Journal that he spoke to Clinton at length about three weeks ago and that's he has talked to Gore twice in the last few months.
But down at the grassroots level of the Democratic Party, Edwards is making friends, too.
Clifford, the New Hampshire activist with the bushy mustache, is rooting for the Edwards' long shot.
"I hope he makes it," Clifford said.
Kevin Begos can be reached in Washington at (202) 662-7672 or at kbegos@mediageneral.com
This story can be found at: http://www.journalnow.com/wsj/news/federal/MGBTBXFI33D.html
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Like they say, when you can fake sincerity, you've got it knocked.
Edwards' stump speech consists of basic Democratic positions on health care, the environment, education and equal opportunity.
Strip away the down-home moderate veneer, and all you get is another Big Government liberal Democrat.
And I don't care if I offend the women here on FR. Female voters vote on looks over substance in a great majority. You can shout "I don't" over and over all you want, but deep down you know its true. The #1 issue with the majority of female voters is a mans apperance.
Says it all right there for me!! If Edwards wins here in NC, I'll be suprised
See my post above. Edwards will fair well here.
Click... if you DARE!
On the Road: Edwards Photo Gallery
They care not one bit about anything but his looks and his birthplace.
Sorry female FReepers, but its true.
I've gotta go with PL on this. He's absolutely right.
Even my wife thinks he's good looking.
Normally Mrs. CD's taste is impeccable (ahem), but she has had a lapse in judgement here.
A graduate of the Venus/Mars Academy I see.
He'd look better with a pie in is smarmy face.
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