Legislative Leaders Want the Districts They Approved to Be Used

RALEIGH, N.C. -- Legislative leaders asked a three-judge federal panel Friday to order that state House and Senate districts approved last year by the General Assembly be used in this year's elections.

In a motion filed by the state Attorney General's Office, House Speaker Jim Black and Senate leader Marc Basnight asked that maps drawn three weeks ago by a Johnston County judge be barred from use because they would harm minority voters.

Like a "golden goal" in World Cup play, Attorney General Cooper appears headed to win the redistricting fight for the Dems with this overtime stunner. Bill Cobey and the gang that couldn't shoot straight caught flat-footed by this spectacular give and go. The three judge panel now must merely head in the corner kick to shock the entire GOP establishment.

The elimination of the second primary (40 per cent rule) has long been the kryptonite bullet in this entire equation. Without this additional tilting of the playing field, Black candidates stand even less chance of being elected in what is increasingly becoming a more conservative state. By arguing that the elimination of the second primary hampers Black candidates, the AG once again skillfully plays the race card at the most opportune moment.

Of course the GOP could argue that a second primary could be held -- if the state is willing to move back state House and Senate elections (or even all the elections.)

Wake up Bill Cobey! Give the Dems their second primary -- don't permit this aggressive attack to break down your weak defensive efforts. Besides you need more time to raise all the money you have promised State House and Senate candidates if they run.

Money you don't have. Imagine the looks on the faces of those poor marginal candidates when all the support they have been promised doesn't arrive.

The elimination of the second primary will help a trio of GOP federal candidates -- Boyd, Dority, and Snyder.

RINO Boyd, running in the new 13th District GOP primary, must raise serious money soon to avoid being overwhelmed in the media intense market by Grant. He cannot win in a runoff as the few Smith supporters unlikely to back the tobacco candidate but he may be able to pull in 35 plus per cent and catch a miracle.

Conservative candidate Dority in the First District will be outspent at least 3-1 after the Dems have their primary. He needs the dynamics of no runoff to produce opponents Cole or Davis. Dority continues to confidently predict "intangibles" will split the Black vote in the Dem primary -- resulting in a favorable opponent for him.

Jim Snyder is the greatest wild card in a North Carolina federal election since George Wallace in 1968 and 1972. He more than any other factor will determine if Ms Dole wins the NC senate seat for the GOP. Snyder with the capability to crash and burn the entire Dole campaign yet he gets no respect from the state party.

Bad move Mr Cobey.

With the second primary option dismissed, Snyder begins to set the end game for having the minor candidates endorse him as now the idea of massive splits in the primary voters forcing said runoff no longer exists. Each one that does so provides Snyder favorable publicity while allowing the oft-dismissed candidate one last opportunity to blast Ms Dole's reticence.

Dr Fisher to be in the race to the end and Parker to be last in endorsing Snyder and bringing his very conservative backers on board.

The three judge panel and Jim Snyder holding all the cards. With three open federal seats (NC-1, 13 and Senate) the GOP on the cusp of being swept. Should the redistricting revert to the old lines and the Republicans fail to win at least the State House then look for a conservative revolution within the party following such a statewide debacle.

The moderate GOP country club set gambling it all on one throw of the dice. History will judge them poorly should they fail.

The argument that the elimination of the second primary (runoff) hurts minority candidates is disingenuous (big surprise) in at least two areas.

First, the lack of runoffs has been necessitated by the stalling tactics of the Democrats.

Second, and more importantly, the lack of a runoff would help more black candidates than it would hurt. In districts where a majority, or a near-majority, of these eligible to vote in a Democratic primary are black, the point is moot; in most cases, a black would win the nomination, runoff or not. In a more racially diverse district, a black candidate might well lead the first primary if the "white vote" were split among two or more white candidates, but might well lose a runoff. Could it work the other way? Sure, if there were two or more black candidates splitting the black vote, and only one white candidate. But history has shown us, at least insofar as statewide N.C. races are concerned, that black candidates often lead the first primary, but lose in a runoff. I'm not aware of the reverse ever having taken place.

Lack of black success in runoffs was in fact the driving force behind the elimination of the state law requiring a runoff (should the second-place finisher call for one) in any case where no candidate receives 50% or more of the vote. The threshold was reduced to 40%, so that a candidate who leads a three-way primary by 42-32-26 is declared the nominee. I believe there have been several black candidates -- Howard Lee of Chapel Hill, for one -- who would have been the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate or for Governor had the 40% threshold been in place in years past, but who lost in runoffs after leading the first primary. And it follows, it seems to me, that total elimination of runoffs would more often benefit black candidates than it would hurt them. No reason to think that the dynamics would be different in districts than in statewide contests.

It should also be remembered that Judge Jenkins' districts, both N.C. House and N.C. Senate, have more minority-friendly districts than the existing maps. Of course, the folks who are hurt by the Jenkins maps are the good old boy (white) Democrats such as two notables in the Charlotte area, T. LaFontine ("Fountain") Odum, and Aaron Plyler. The latest Democratic ploy is nothing more than a delaying tactic. They're still casting around to find some court or judge, somewhere, somehow, to order that the elections be held using the 1992 districts. Their hypocracy hardly need be commented on.

Jomini, I don't know where you come up with these breathless musings, but you've completely missed the boat on this one.

Snyder has some growing support among activists, but his campaign is being managed by people whose credentials lack luster. He is an absolute unknown outside of the activist circle, and his share of that group is not as large as Dole's. He has no cards to play and there will be no end game.

This is not the first time in political history that a presumptive frontrunner has built a commanding lead but still had to face several opponents. That hardly leads to an end game. This one will end as all the others have, with the candidate with money and organization and name recognition carrying the day. Dole will win big in the primary and go on to bury Bowles OR Blue in the general. Any end games played by minor candidates will go unnoticed by the electorate.

As to black candidates, Southern is absolutely right. There are many areas where blacks win routinely, without second primaries. This argument is not as strong as you think.

Finally, poor Greg Dority. He won't get outspent 3 to 1. It'll be more like 30 to 1. He has yet to show the dedication to grassroots organization that he must have to make a dent in a very tough district.

But I suspect that you already know that.

This is a little complicated, so please let me know if I am correct in my interpretation. "We know it's against the law, but please allow it because this is the only way we can get blacks in office." Is that pretty close?

Yes, but it's more complicated than that. The bizarre, attenuated, erose districts drawn so as to contain "minority majorities" are an unfortunate fact, mandated by the Voter Rights Act. The dirty little secret is the formula for the continued election of white "good old boy/gal" Democrats. It is an increasingly delicate balancing act in State Legislatures and County Commission Boards across the country, but perhaps especially in the South. In North Carolina, at least, to be elected (or, more often, to hang onto a seat), a white Democrat must have a substantial number of blacks in his district, as Republicans have cornered a majority of the white vote across the economic spectrum; but not so many blacks as to nominate a black candidate in the Democratic primary. Charlotte area examples: Senator Aaron Plyler of Union County; Senator T. LaFontine ("Fountain") Odum of Mecklenburg County; and House Majority Leader Jim Black of Mecklenburg County. All have contrived to have districts drawn containing JUST enough blacks to keep them elected, but not enough to take a primary from them.

And, of course, the same dynamic is at work in the U.S. Congressional redistricting, where the N.C. General Assembly is attempting to oust 8th District Republican Robin Hayes by removing some black Charlotte neighborhoods from black Democrat Mel Watt's district (he has "blacks to spare"), and appending them to Hayes's district.

The thrust of the first post is that the Dems are suddenly in the position of a European futbol attacker on a set corner-kick play, musings of Snyder and Dority notwithstanding. Should the Dems strike a golden goal with the three judge panel then the entire GOP campaign at the state level may collapse. The analogy being that the header off a corner quite similar by rapidly redirecting the kinetic energy of the kick against the flow of the field.

The GOP for all its glory this year was not prepared for an argument based on the elimination of the 40 per cent rule. The Dems in a position to win should their striker execute.

Politics, like World Cup soccer, mainly boredom fashioned by moments of high drama.

I think you and everyone in the mainstream are reading Jim Snyder wrong. I don't claim to know who is running his operation and no doubt they lack the credentials of the L Street gnomes, however...

The activists battling for Jim Snyder that are sleeping in unfurnished apartments in Lexington and canvassing Capitol Hill for money have a devotion and dedication that Ms Dole or Mr Bowles could only dream of in their followers. The Snyder crowd is trying to outwork the Dole organization and each day they bring new converts to the fold -- they are growing exponentially.

The point in the original post was that Snyder is gaining a position where he can "determine" Ms Dole's fate. Snyder scoring with conservative elements in the eastern part of the state. Without those voters in November Ms Dole cannot win -- regardless of what Mr Rove and the rest of the DC percentage players wish to believe.

Ms Dole's gamble is that by ignoring Snyder -- and ignoring the growing passion and spiritual calling of the Snyder flock -- his influence diminishes in this key swing vote area. I may be mistaken, but I believe she is manevering to such a tack that the later arguments about GOP solidarity and winning conservative Democrats will come out as flat as her new television commercials.

Without the conservative vote she cannot win. Regardless of the credentials of the Snyder team -- they will never quit and never sell out the conservative cause. Deal those cards!

As far as candidate Dority, the post mentioned him being outspent 3-1 "after" the primary. The guy will be lucky to raise 50 K and must hope that Cole presents a strong enough challenge to Ballance that both of them will soon begin spending cash before the primary.

Dority an interesting character in that his purpose is to make the Dems spend cash in a Congressional race that normally is not competitive. Every dollar that Ballance and Cole spend is a dollar Bowles does not receive to spend against Ms Dole. Dority's record in political campaigns overseas suggests his endgame strategy will be to effect a complete collapse of his opponent as happened to the SP in 1996 and Dodik in 2000.

Whatever happens with the court, the Black vote must be effectively neutralized by the GOP strategists. The Dems very clever to already be playing the race card -- should their header find the net in the coming fortnight, they will have led with an ace.

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