Poll: Forrester's lead still solid in Senate primary

The Courier Post Online ^ | May 30, 2002 | ALAN GUENTHER

[Exit 109]

As candidates for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination head into the home stretch for Tuesday's primary election, self-made millionaire Douglas Forrester maintains a solid lead, according to a poll released tonight.

Forrester has support from 39 percent of the likely Republican voters surveyed, trailed by former newscaster Diane Allen, with 26 percent, and state Sen. John Matheussen of Gloucester County, with 14 percent, according to the Survey/USA poll conducted for KYW-TV and the Courier-Post.

[Exit 109]

Latest polling data.

[ambrose]

All three of them sound like squishes.

[TheGrimReaper]

My November projection:
Incumbent democrat
Probable criminal
It's New Jersey

Torricelli wins in a landslide.

[Exit 109]

They are what they are.

Any good news from your end of the county on your governor's race?

[Exit 109]

Torricelli wins in a landslide.

Um . . . no. Torch is still pulling under 50% in all polling at this stage of the game. Roughly 1/3 of the electorate says they WILL NOT vote for him.

That stinks for an incumbent. Make no mistake about it, this guy is vulnerable this year.

[Exit 109]

In a hypothetical matchup, Allen trailed Torricelli by a narrow margin, 43 percent to 41 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

Forrester trailed Torricelli by 10 percent, and Matheussen trailed by 12 percent.

These 3 candidates are 'relative unknowns'. As I said, the Torch is vulnerable.

[TheGrimReaper]

I would like to share your optimism.
Has NJ ever had a republican US Senator?

[Exit 109]

Oops. That would be country.

[Captainpaintball]

What is Forresters REAL occupation? He does SOMETHING, right? Is he in office supplies, oil, chain stores?

The reason I ask is because the Courier Post calls him a "self-made millionaire", and in other cases, just plain 'ol 'millionaire'. It is clearly an attempt to paint the frontrunner as an "eeeeeevil rich Republican" hopelessly out of touch with the average, Courier Post reader. It's absoulte garbage. I'm voting for him, and I will likely join his campaign in some way--we cannot allow a root cause of Sept. 11th to win re-election.

[Exit 109]

We try in the optimism department. Remember though, that the Torch is also weak on the defense issue. We were hit hard on 911 (my town lost 36 people that day). Attitudes here are different than they were a few months ago.

Last GOP sentator from this state was, if I remember correctly, Clifford Case (first elected in the 50's, served through the 70's).

[Paleo Conservative]

How expensive is it to win a US Senate race in NJ? I've heard that there are no TV stations in the state so all ads have to be bought in either the New York City or Philadelphia media markets.

[Exit 109]

All questions can be answered here: Forrester2002.

[Exit 109]

Running a statewide campaign in this state is a nightmare. We have some local media (2 NJ 'statewide' tv stations, via cable, some local radio stations), but the NY (north, central portions of the state) and the Philly (southern, the 'other' central portions of the state) predominate. The NY media market is the most expensive in the country.

And, for such a small state, we have huge variations between regions. We also have a large amount of unaffiliated voters, who are notorious for making up their minds at the last minute.

Trying to remember from the '00 race. For some reason, I think Corzine spent somewhere along the lines of 36 mil for that seat. Now, Franks didn't lose that year by a huge margin, and he had a small fraction of that to spend. So if you're smart with your message and spending you can be effective.

[ambrose]

Not really... Davis is going to overwhelm Simon.

[Coop]

Torricelli wins in a landslide.

I don't think so, Tim.

[Coop]

Sure. Okay. That would explain Davis losing in four of five polls. That would also explain three different polls showing Davis with a 50+% disapproval rating, and another poll showing 47% would not re-elect Davis. That would also explain the Political Oddsmaker listing Gray-out as only having a 51.7% chance of re-election. Wow, that's impressive.

Gray-out's got a ton of money, but Simon's not a poor boy. Davis can be beaten.

I just absolutely love all the folks writing Simon off when ALL the data points to just the opposite. Whether it happens or not remains to be seen, but CA FReepers should be working hard for Simon's campaign.

[VeritatisSplendor]

Thanks for the post. I ran the poll, and it's my quotes you highlighted!

Forrester has been a town councilman and a state auditor, I believe -- so he has experience in both the legislative and the executive branches of the government as well as his business experience. His ads are making this clear enough.

I personally am voting for Matheussen because he is the only pro-life candidate. But I'd gladly support Forrester against Torricelli.

[VeritatisSplendor]

Oops -- I should have read the rest of the article. Forrester was assistant treasurer, not auditor. And he was also a mayor!