Posted on 05/28/2002 6:31:33 AM PDT by Theodore R.
Democrats seek balance in South Dennis Camire / Times Washington Bureau Posted on May 28, 2002
WASHINGTON - Democratic political power in the South, shattered by Republican victories in the 1990s, could increase in this year's elections - but not by leaps and bounds.
Democrats were written off too quickly in the 11 states of the former Confederacy, and they are moving slowly back into contention, said Wayne Parent, a political scientist at Louisiana State University. Four Southern states have their primaries in the coming month: Alabama and Mississippi on June 4 and South Carolina and Virginia on June 11.
In the past few years, Democrats have won back governors' mansions in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Virginia. At the same time, Democrats held onto at least some control in many of the state legislatures, allowing them to reshape congressional district lines in their states.
"What happened to the Republicans in the South is that they don't have the power in the state legislatures that Democrats have, so when the lines were drawn, the Democrats ruled the day," said Hastings Wyman, publisher of the Southern Political Report.
Earl Black, a political scientist specializing in Southern politics at Rice University, said Republicans and Democrats are both minority parties in the South.
"There is not a majority party, but the Republicans are better off than they once were because they were hopeless minorities," he said. "Now they are competitive, but the Democrats are weakened compared to what they had in the past when it was just a solid Democratic region."
One reason the GOP hasn't been able to establish a one-party dynasty in the South, even given its conservative bent, is its traditional Southern issues have been severely reduced in their influence, Wyman said.
Among the GOP's once-hot issues:
- Foreign policy in the fight against Communism.
- Race since Democrats nationally pushed integration.
- The economy with a Republican push for capitalism.
"The issues that propelled the Republicans forward have all receded," Wyman said.
And while some social issues such as gun control and abortion resonate well throughout the region, Southern Democrats have been able to craft their own positions in tune with voters and distance themselves from their national party's liberal stand. Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-LA, is strongly supports abortion and appears a shoo-in for reelection.
"Probably Republicans will still win more than the Democrats do, but the momentum has slowed down and shifted slightly toward the Democrats," Parent said.
But how much Democrats will improve their political clout in this year's elections is open, especially in House races - where some court challenges to congressional redistricting still are being worked out - and Senate races.
"Just as this has been an incumbent redistricting year, it's mainly going to be an incumbent re-election year," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "You will have a few incumbents defeated, but it's just a handful - certainly a handful compared to an average redistricting year."
Of the 125 House seats in the region now, Republicans control 72, Democrats hold 52, and an independent has one.
With the congressional redistricting based on Census 2000, the South is gaining six House seats this year - two in Florida, two in Georgia, one in North Carolina and two in Texas - and giving up one in Mississippi.
Most political experts expect Democrats to pick up no more than a half dozen seats after the elections in the South - but it could easily go the other way.
Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, said Georgia is the best case for Democrats to improve their chances of controlling the House.
That's because the state's U.S. House delegation is now eight Republicans and three Democrats. But after redistricting under Democratic Gov. Roy E. Barnes and the Democratic-controlled Legislature, Democrats expect the state delegation to be 7-6 in their favor after the election.
"That is a net change of six seats and that would be the biggest change expected of any American state next November," Merle Black said.
Republicans tried the same thing in Florida where they controlled the governorship and the Legislature, but best guesses show them picking up only two seats there. The GOP also is expected to add two more seats in Texas.
Ten of the 11 Southern states also will have Senate races this year with the GOP defending eight of them - four are open because of GOP retirements. But Democrats may not be able make inroads except in Texas and Arkansas. Texas has a competitive race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Phil Gramm, and incumbent Sen. Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., may face a tough race against the Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Mark Pryor.
Republicans also have a shot at incumbent Sen. Max Cleland, D-Ga., being challenged by incumbent Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss and Georgia state Rep. Bob Irvin, also a Republican.
Seven of the region's states - two with incumbent Democrats and five with incumbent Republicans - also are holding governor's races this year, but without much room for either side to make significant gains.
The best bet for Democrats is in Tennessee where Republican Gov. Don Sundquist, who can't run again because of term limits, is waging a battle for tax increases with the state Legislature, Sabato said. Also Sen. Fred Thompson is retiring, giving Democrats a chance at another open seat.
Democrats are doing well except for Alabama Gov. Donald Siegelman, who is being challenged heavily, Sabato said.
Even Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., was sanguine about Republican political progress in the South this year.
"It may slip back a little bit, but we're going to continue to make progress forward," Lott said. "The Republican Party is closer to where people are in the South."
Replace "Communism" with "terrorism" and this issue hasn't gone away at all.
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