Posted on 04/05/2002 6:16:44 AM PST by jraven
As DEBKA-Net-Weekly Predicted: Muslim Oil Embargo Threat Is Brandished - Influences Bush Turnaround
5 April: Friday, April 5, Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called on Arab states to enforce a one-month oil embargo against Western countries, to pressure them to stop supporting Israel. A similar call issued from Baghdad on Monday, April 1.
This following passage comes from the DEBKA-Net-Weekly, Issue 55, which was published earlier:
As oil prices soared to a six-month high, Iran and Iraq began muttering this week about aMuslim-Arab oil embargo for bending America to their will.(DEBKA-Net-Weekly predicted this development in its January 25, 2002 Issue, No. 46.)
Now, they are not thinking terms of the 1973-4 all-Arab oil embargo - but rather of combining in an Iranian-Iraqi-Saudi bloc to stand against the US-Russian partnership. This embargo would only target the United States, Russia and Israel, but not affect Japan, China and West Europe.
DEBKAfile’s Gulf sources add that Iran’s leaders, backed by Iraq - with Saudi Arabia quietly active in the wings - are hard-selling their oil embargo plan. As terrorism spreads, this hardline Muslim axis expects to apply the Arab oil embargo threat as an irresistible weapon for forcing the Bush administration to turn its back on Israel and swing its support behind Yasser Arafat.
Our oil experts point out, however, that times have changed since the 1973-4 Arab embargo. The United States is no longer solely dependent on Arab oil producers. Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the largest oil-producing bloc in the world, will not risk losing their primary source of revenue in the long term. However their threat alone is enough to throw world oil prices – expected to shoot up in the next day or two – into disarray, as well as shocking financial markets. All three producers will make sure to keep their markets in Japan and Europe - even if they have to bypass their own embargo
How about we respond with a 1 YEAR embargo on food and medicine to all OPEC countries?
Russia and elsewhere could be tapped to make up the losses, over the long term. I hope they pull the plug, it would lead to their de-stabilization (except for Iraq, of course)
Hmmm, looks like oil is down sharply today, and the Dow is up.
Could Debka be wrong???????
Yup. I heard that we (The US) only get 15% of our oil from the middle east now. It will still affect the worldwide price I assume.
There would be some short-term economic consquences, of course, but if we all co-operated, pulled together, and remain resolute, we will endure, and the long-term economic impact could be very positive.
I am not Jewish, but do not think Israel should give up one inch of land. If anything, they should take enough more to protect themselves totally and completely, and they should throw out of the land they take every single "palestinian", innocent or terrorist.
I also think we should send back to their country of origin, any visitor or immigrant from Arab lands who do not immediately condemn the abhorrent behavior of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, etc, etc,etc.
And, no more food, medicine, aid, or trade with any of these countries, period, until they "get a clue" about minding thier own business.
My reason for being so angry? They are behaving, collectively, like Hitler and the Third Reich. There is no point in appeasing them, and to continue to do so will only make WW3 all the more inevitable.
Will they ever learn .. this will NEVER happen.
Beside that fact there are other places to get oil .. Don't we also have a 6 month reserve supply
Me too, Venison is great.
I saw the guy from Cato also. He's exactly right. New discoveries offshore in West African waters are huge. Same with offshore Brazil, Venezuela and other South American ventures. Caspian production will soon be coming on line and Russia can ramp up quickly.
Ad ANWR and other areas like Sudan and they (Iraq, Iran & Saudi's) know that impotence with this threat is fast approaching.
I'm in the O&G Exploration business and every month the periodicals list new discoveries around the world. This is an empty threat.
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