Conquer or capitulate

(March 1) - Even the most cursory glance at the basic arithmetic of the Israeli-Arab conflict and its history, should be sufficient to underscore the total futility of the Israeli government's current policy towards the Palestinian violence.

During Israel's War of Independence, the newly-founded Jewish nation, infused with a resolute sense of purpose, was not swayed from its aspiration to achieve political sovereignty, despite the tremendous casualties the pursuit of this aspiration demanded of it. In spite of the fact that the Jewish population numbered barely 600,000, even the terrible loss of 6,000 dead did not diminish Jewish determination to achieve national independence.

Accordingly, under the eminently plausible assumption that the Jewish sensitivity to loss of life then was not less than Palestinian sensitivity is today, there is little reason to suppose that the Palestinians, similarly infused with a resolute sense of purpose, will abandon the endeavor to attain their national goal - even at the cost of great suffering.

Indeed, if the Palestinians are prepared to endure the same rate of casualties that Israelis were prepared to sustain in the 1940s, then even inflicting losses of the order of 30,000 on them will not bring them to give up their armed struggle against Israel. So, were the IDF to exact costs 10 times heavier than those imposed by the present government policy, the chances are that it would still be ineffectual in quelling Palestinian violence.

This comparison underscores the utter futility of limited Israeli military measures of any kind. It shows quite unequivocally that targeted assassinations, demolition of a few dozen houses, and temporary invasions of Palestinian administered territories will never induce the Palestinian to lay down their arms even if Israel were to escalate these types of measures to levels presently undreamed of.

This, however, does not mean that Israel has no option but to go back to the negotiating table, and to chase after the illusory mirage of a political solution. After all, since October 2000, following Palestinian rejection of the far-reaching and reckless concessionary offers made by the Barak government, after the uncompromising insistence on the Palestinian right of return, it has become undeniably clear to the Israeli public (apart from some eccentric and fanatical left-wing fringe groups) that what fuels the fires of the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the lack of Palestinian self-determination but the existence of Jewish self-determination no matter what the territorial frontiers may be.

Accordingly, if on the one hand the Palestinians cannot be induced to give up their violence by any reasonably conceivable concessions, and on the other hand they cannot be induced to do so by the threat of any reasonably conceivable punitive measures, there appear to be only two ways to bring the fighting to an end. The one involves total capitulation to Palestinian demands and unmitigated acceptance of all their claims. The significance of this option is the complete renunciation of the Zionist ideal of a sovereign Jewish state for the People of Israel in the Land of Israel. For it is virtually indisputable that the adoption of this course would result in a state that would very quickly find itself swallowed up in the social, economic and political environment that prevails in the region, and would soon become indistinguishable from any other of the surrounding states in the precinct.

The second alternative involves acknowledging the fact that Israel has no acceptable way of diminishing the Palestinian will to attack it, and thus must eliminate Palestinian ability to do so by speedy and decisive conquest of the areas transferred to Palestinian control, the dismantling of all the political and military organizations and infrastructures established since the Oslo Accords, and the reinstatement of effective Israeli sovereign rule from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. This is undoubtedly a course of action fraught with many hazards. Its implementation requires meeting many daunting challenges and overcoming many serious obstacles that cannot be lightly dismissed. It will call for huge diplomatic and political efforts, and place the national leadership under the most stringent of tests. But if Israel still desires to preserve its national independence and the political sovereignty of the Jewish nation-state, there is no other feasible alternative.

This then is the cruel choice on the national agenda: The Jews can either capitulate to the Palestinian national movement - or conquer (vanquish) it. It is a choice that must be made urgently. Any belief in a more moderate, less radical option is no more than misguided self-delusion.

(The writer is a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya.)

An astute analysis and an obvious one. People have arrived at this conclusion since the '20s. Gandhi was famous for taking it to its logical conclusion; population transfer, ethnic cleansing, whatever name you want to give it. The Israelis have never had the strength to execute it. When they won wars locally the International community made it clear they would not tolerate any such policy. Pressure from that same community is what keeps Israel from pursuing that policy today.

Well, I think you're right. Israel could not at the present time push/drive/expell or otherwise ethnically cleanse the Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank without a huge explosion from Europe (on the other hand, any public outcry in this country would be far more muted and Congress--for obvious reasons--wouldn't complain at all.)

However timing is everything in war as in life. If Sharon can hang on until we attack Iraq, Saddam will retaliate by firing missiles at Israel. The Palestinians will be so ecstatic they'll stage mass attacks all over the West Bank and Gaza. Sharon will say, "I have no choice" and send in the IDF, ostensibly to crack down on the violent attacks, but actually to drive the Palestinians out of the occupied territories. The world will be too busy watching U.S. smart bombs blowing up Iraqi TV stations to notice the IDF sideshow. By the time the dust settles, the land from the River Jordan to the sea will be entirely Palestinian-free.

It's been said by both the Israeli left and the right that Sharon doesn't have a plan. Well, from what I've said above, I obviously believe he does. But before he can execute it, the U.S. must first attack Iraq. Hence the repeated drumbeat from Wolfowitz, Krauthammer, and Podhoretz to attack Iraq sooner rather than later and not stop bombing till the rubble bounces.

I also think if Israel went for complete victory, there would be a new arab oil embargo and the US would have to shut off aid which is currently about 10 billion per year. Furthermore, some countries might side with the arabs and stop trade with Israel to get their oil fix much as france does with regularity.

I have to disagree with the, new arab oil embargo senario. When the first embargo happened 30 years ago, conditions were much different. The Arab states were flush with money, now they are all in debt. Their weren't any alternative sources of oil, now much of the oil market is outside OPEC. The oil market is a global market, and someone will always sell you oil if you can pay. The arabs are just sore loosers. Israel humiliated them time and again, by defeating them in a just war, on the battle field.

Israel should take back the west bank and gaza, and deport all the arabs into the Sinai. It's the victors who write the history and receive the political benefits. Had president Bush listened to all the negative comments on the Afghanistan war(the arab street will rise up, don't bomb durring Ramadan it will offend the moslems, the Russians and the British both failed, etc...), he might not have moved at all. Now if you listen to those nay sayers, they were all 100% behind the war, then they go on to say that if we go into Iraq, the arab street will rise up, the arabs will be offended, we lack the military power, etc... Sure there are alot of potential problems in a war, but Victory solves most of them.

If the arabs ever take control of Israel, the Jews will face another holocaust of ethnic cleansing. The Jewish lament of "Never Again" could read "twice in less than a century". With a choice of Victory or Death, if I was an Israeli I'd chose Victory.

A new oil embargo could force Israel to seize the Saudi oil fields (and bypass Mecca/Medina). Dubya may simply decide that the US is better off with Israel running the fields than the House of Saud. Israel could hand over some fields and the holy cities to Turkey to run -- a bribe that would help out Turkey's economic situation immensely (and prestige). The Euros don't have the capability to retake them and since they're craven at heart, their attitudes towards Jews and Arabs would probably conveniently flip-flop. The other Gulf states would do the usual and survive through accomodation. Egypt is too far away and too vulnerable - those two dams leave Egypt vulnerable to a single air or missile strike (one reason that Sadat made peace in the end -- even in '73 he didn't expect to gain more than part of the Sinai back). If Israel timed it right, the US will have taken down Iraq and put the Iranian mullahs on the defensive. That leaves Pakistan who can't afford to waste nukes on Israel when India has more nukes and is closer.

Basically Martin Sherman has endorsed Steven Plaut's long standing call for Israel to pursue R&D = Reconquest and Denazification. The truth is Israel has no alternative, unless it intends to commit suicide and disappear from the region forever. What with Arab nazis massacring Jews every day, the only way Israel can prevent a bloodbath is to destroy the PLO/PA and institute iron-fisted rule over the Arab population. It may offend those with squeamish liberal sensitivities, but facts are stubborn things. Facts like women and babies being blown up by suicide bombers. The time has come for Israel to change course and take her future into her hands.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.