If he only had one. {;~)
Don't forget to VOTE!!! on Tuesday, March 5 - Californians.
Posted on 02/27/2002 6:09:15 AM PST by dalereed
Simon passes slumping Riordan in GOP race, poll finds
Davis ads contribute to gubernatorial surprise
By John Marelius
STAFF WRITER
February 27, 2002
LOS ANGELES ? In an astonishing turnabout, political neophyte Bill Simon has rocketed past Richard Riordan to seize the lead in the race for the Republican nomination for governor in Tuesday's primary election, according to a statewide Field Poll.
A month ago, Simon, a Los Angeles businessman and philanthropist, was a virtual political unknown while Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles, was the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination and do battle with Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, in November.
But thanks to Davis' unprecedented, cross-party advertising barrage targeting Riordan, and Simon's efforts to establish himself as the candidate of GOP conservatives, the race has shifted about as dramatically as anything pollsters have ever seen.
Simon's support has almost tripled during the past month from 13 percent to 37 percent. Riordan's backing has gone into a tailspin, dropping from 46 percent to 31 percent. The third candidate, Secretary of State Bill Jones, unable to keep pace financially with his two wealthy rivals, has slid from 13 percent to 9 percent.
"It is a huge turnaround," said Mark DiCamillo, associate director of the nonpartisan Field Poll. "In the (50-year) history of the Field Poll, I don't think we've seen such a large turnaround in such a short period of time."
For all of the turmoil in the Republican gubernatorial race, the poll shows that Davis, who faces no significant opposition in the Democratic primary, has serious problems going into the general election campaign.
A majority of likely general election voters, 54 percent, told the Field Poll they were not inclined to vote to give Davis a second term. Only 39 percent said they were inclined to vote for Davis.
Riordan yesterday angrily accused Davis of trying to hijack the Republican primary for the benefit of a weaker opponent in Simon.
"He wants Bill Simon as his opponent, not Dick Riordan, because all the polling . . . shows that I'm the one that can beat Gray Davis," Riordan told a Los Angeles news conference.
Polling data do not support that contention as readily as they once did. Last month, the Field Poll showed Davis running behind Riordan in a hypothetical general-election matchup, but leading Simon and Jones.
Now the three Republicans stack up much the same against Davis. Riordan leads the incumbent 46 percent to 40 percent. But Simon is now also ahead, 44 percent to 42 percent. And Jones is in striking distance, trailing 43 percent to 41 percent.
Davis campaign manager Garry South questioned the findings. He said other independent polls, as well as the campaign's own research, show that Davis has retaken the lead against all three Republicans.
DiCamillo said earlier surveys reflected name recognition and casual impressions on the part of voters, most of whom were not even aware that the uncommonly early primary election was coming up so soon. Now, he said, they are.
"The last four weeks is when voters have had to really come to terms with the fact that they were going to be voting," he said. "Now the voters are engaged, they're hearing all the ads, they're making their decision and we have this huge shift."
The new Field Poll demonstrates how the television advertising campaigns have shaped the race.
A month ago, 60 percent of the likely Republican primary voters told the Field Poll they had a favorable impression of Riordan, to 12 percent unfavorable. Now only 37 percent are favorable toward Riordan and 35 percent are unfavorable.
In January, Simon was largely a blank slate, with nearly two-thirds of the Republicans saying they had no impression of him. Of those who did, 29 percent were favorable and 7 percent were unfavorable.
But after a month of positive Simon advertising and only recent hits from Riordan, the percentage of likely GOP primary voters who regard Simon favorably has jumped to 59 percent. Only 12 percent viewed him in an unfavorable light.
The survey also shows how likely Republican voters have been responding to the ideological positioning of the candidates on the campaign trail.
Republicans who identified themselves as "strongly conservative" preferred Simon over Riordan, 52 percent to 27 percent. Those who regard themselves as "middle of the road" favored Riordan over Simon, 37 percent to 23 percent.
The Field Poll also gave Republican voters a list of statements and asked which candidate the statements applied to best. Again, the responses were in keeping with the themes of the campaigns.
Asked who has the best chance to defeat Davis in November, 56 percent said Riordan and only 18 percent said Simon. As to who has the best chance to broaden the appeal of the Republican Party to independent voters, it was Riordan 40 percent, Simon 23 percent. On who has the experience to handle the problems facing the state, 38 percent named Riordan while 23 percent named Simon.
But when asked whose views on issues "are closest to your own," 41 percent responded Simon, 23 percent Riordan. As to who best represents the views of the GOP, it was Simon 40 percent, Riordan 20 percent. Asked who could be "trusted most to do what is right, not just what is politically popular," 36 percent named Simon and 22 percent named Riordan.
DiCamillo said voters find Riordan's argument that he can be elected more credible than compelling.
"Voters don't usually vote in a strategic way, for the better interests of the party," he said. "They want a guy in office they agree with."
Simon, campaigning in Stockton yesterday, attributed his surge in the polls to his assiduous courting of Republican grass-roots organizations, whose members are highly motivated voters, for a number of months with the same conservative economic message.
"I like to think that a lot has to do with the fact that we've been preaching the same message about the same issues for many months," he said. "I think they're issues that resonate."
Jones, campaigning in San Diego yesterday, maintained that because his TV ad campaign has just begun, there is still time for such a volatile election to swing his way.
"All of our TV that we have done, and all of our media, has started this past week," Jones said. "None of these polls reflect the fact that we're on television delivering that message."
South disputed Riordan's contention that the Davis ad blitz is responsible for his precipitous slide.
"It's probably been a factor," the Davis campaign manager said. "But I think some of Riordan's own mistakes and his own unfathomable actions have hurt him as well. We didn't have anything to do with this man sitting up in front of the Republican state convention and insulting the former Republican governor of California (George Deukmejian) and getting booed.
"We didn't cause Dick Riordan to stick his foot in his mouth every time he opens his trap and flop around on every issue."
The Field Poll is based on telephone interviews conducted statewide Thursday through Monday. The findings for the sample of likely voters in the Republican primary have a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Staff writers Bill Ainsworth and Philip J. LaVelle contributed to this report.
Copyright 2002 Union-Tribune Publishing Co.
Considering that up to 20% of the sheeple will vote for who they think the winner will be, front page articles like this in the major newspapers will make Riordan burnt toast!
This too is sweet. An incumbent with less than 40% of likely voters is in deep doo doo. Still a long way to go though...
Keep your powder dry ...vote early and often
If he only had one. {;~)
Don't forget to VOTE!!! on Tuesday, March 5 - Californians.
Ditto bump
Sounds like Davis might find himself bitten in the butt by the 'law of unintended consequences'. It certainly couldn't happen to a more 'deserving' Democrat!!
Unfortunately, I have also read that he is in favor of granting amnesty to the millions of illegal aliens that inhabit the Golden State. This is not good.
Can anyone provide any data on this?
said Mark DiCamillo, associate director of the nonpartisan Field PollThis must be a joke, right!!!
Good news BTW :)
SIMON BUMP
Simon says: BUMP!
The GOP primary is essentially the real governor's race.
Now is the time to go for the throat. Go, Simon!
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