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If You Thought Anthrax Was Bad...
Toogood Reports ^ | December 3, 2001 | Beth Goodtree

Posted on 12/03/2001 10:11:56 AM PST by Starmaker

A few days before the anthrax attacks, I wrote a very controversial piece about the next terror attacks. In “It´s Time To Panic: The Kitchen Bioterrorist,” written on 9/20/01, I outlined how easy it would be for a terrorist working alone to create havoc and death. I also predicted that such an attack was likely in the very near future. The anthrax attacks a few days later proved me right in all my predictions except for the disease used. (I said botulism.) Now I have another prediction - far, far worse. And I sincerely hope I´m wrong.

As with the last piece, I have thought long and hard before writing this and airing it to the public. However, as has become obvious, whatever ideas I may have are nothing new to the terrorists. They spend 24/7/365 thinking up new ways to commit atrocities on an unsuspecting public. I am giving them no new information. However, if we are to combat terrorism, we must first be aware of what may be in store for us so as to take appropriate measures to stop it. That old saw, ‘forewarned is forearmed´ comes to mind.

But before I tell you my prediction, let me explain how I arrived at it. I have been observing not merely the methods, but the psychology and ideology behind the recent rash of terrorist attacks. Today´s terrorists are, for the most part, very different from those before the 1960s. For one thing, the majority of them are radical Islamists who want to die for their cause. They commit acts of terror from a warped pseudo-politico/religious belief system.

I call this belief system ‘pseudo´ because it goes against the very teachings of the religion they purport to uphold. Mohammed never said that innocent civilians should be targeted. And renaming innocent civilians as legitimate enemies, as these religious zealots have done, does not abrogate that fact. Then there is the bit about suicide. According to the Koran, suicide is forbidden. But the zealots have renamed it death while fighting the infidels. From a religious standpoint, they have given themselves Allah´s blessing to carry out their murderous acts.

So now we have a bunch of religious maniacs who think that killing themselves while killing and maiming innocent people will get them into heaven and give them 72 virgins to boot. To put it another way, dying for their cause is one of their goals.

The next factor I considered was their methodology and available weaponry. Their methodology involves using themselves as the delivery system of whatever horror they have planned. It also involves something that is common, unnoticeable, and cost-effective.

As to weaponry, our ‘War On Terrorism´ has put a crimp in the weapons available to the terrorists. We have also been hitting them in the pocketbook and confounding their communications. Our vigilance in trying to detect conventional weapons such as bombs and guns has forced them to become creative. Couple that with the recent anthrax attacks and the fact that at least one of the 9-11 terrorists was checking out crop dusters. It is obvious that the terrorists are thinking in terms of bioweapons.

There is also one more factor to consider. Recently, terror groups across the globe have been quietly rounded up. They are no longer free to plan and operate large-scale operations with anonymity and impunity. Whatever attack is coming next will probably be done by an individual or small group without too much preparation involved.

When you add up all the aspects I outlined above, the answer becomes obvious. Or perhaps I should say, the proper question becomes obvious. Here´s the question: What can a single terrorist do to kill or injure as many people as possible, while causing panic and interrupting government, using a biological weapon and his own body as a delivery system?

My first thoughts were as a carrier of some horrific disease. The scenario is laughingly simple and undetectable. Some heaven-bent terrorist infects himself with a devastating disease such as Ebola, Smallpox, or Bubonic Plague. Then he boards a plane for New York City, gets off and walks around coughing on everybody in as many terminals as he can access. Suddenly, you have thousands of infected carriers leaving for points all over the country, spreading the infection as they travel.

In fact, the recent outbreak of Dengue Fever in Hawaii, a place not known for such outbreaks, and geographically isolated, may have been a dry run or a first attempt. Or perhaps the West Nile Virus outbreak in New York City two years ago was a test case. I only know that we must be prepared to identify and stop these people before they can inflict a biological nightmare on the world.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: anthraxscarelist; smallpoxlist
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1 posted on 12/03/2001 10:11:57 AM PST by Starmaker
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To: Starmaker
This Beth Goodtree thinks this is an original thought by her?

We've talked about it for months. I even heard people saying this on the Don Imus show in October for goodness sake.

2 posted on 12/03/2001 10:20:24 AM PST by tallhappy
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To: Starmaker
Fortunately this, again, is not as easy as many previously surmised. I used to be quite worried about this exact same scenario except for the fact that people with these contagious diseases, no matter how dedicated, are not physically fit to go around infecting people - they are barely able to move and their horrid appearance would be self-alarming. For example, in the case of small pox, the disease can only be contracted from people who have it in its most deadly stage, meaning they're not likely able to get up out of their (hospital) death bed and start walking around airports coughing on people, without somebody being concerned. Now, the degree to which this is feasible is of course directly related to the life-cycle of the diseases and when they are truly contagious - but, bottom line, it's not as easy or likely possible as the author (still) surmises.
3 posted on 12/03/2001 10:23:47 AM PST by Steven W.
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To: Starmaker
My first thoughts were as a carrier of some horrific disease. The scenario is laughingly simple and undetectable. Some heaven-bent terrorist infects himself with a devastating disease such as Ebola, Smallpox, or Bubonic Plague.

Heck, back during the Gulf war Art Bell had some guy on that brought up this scenario. He said it would be very easy to infect someone willingly or not, say a lady and a child, and send them cris-crossing the world on a plane when they are at their most likely to infect others. Multiply those two people by 50 and you could have real problems. The guest brought it up because Saddam was threatening the US and the west in general at the time.

Anyhow, someone with a devious mind and spare time on their hands along with a free pack of matches from the drug store could tie you in knots too if they did it right.

4 posted on 12/03/2001 10:28:36 AM PST by thatsnotnice
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To: Starmaker
Ebola won't work. It disables the patient to greatly. Further, the transmission is through contact with infected fluids. Finally it kills too quickly to infect a large population.

As for plague, it must be remembered that plague is contracted fairly frequently in the United States, and has not produced a major epedemic.

Smallpox is another matter altogether, although there is the distinct possibility that much of the population still has a certain degree of immunity from past vaccinations, and the government is already preparing to vaccinate everyone.

5 posted on 12/03/2001 10:31:24 AM PST by sharktrager
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To: thatsnotnice
The one thing wrong with this analysis is the emotional nature of a suicidalist: highly dramatic, and also (have to be) fearful. Going out in one big painless bang is one thing. Going out over a course of weeks as your extremities rot off is quite another.
6 posted on 12/03/2001 10:32:17 AM PST by MoralSense
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To: thatsnotnice
Fortunately, smallpox is not contagious until the spreader has already started to breakout himself and also he will be very sick while he is walking all over New York. Now, about the other diseases, I don't know.
7 posted on 12/03/2001 10:32:53 AM PST by smolensk
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To: Steven W.; *Smallpox List; *Anthrax_Scare_List; Alamo-Girl; codebreaker
Steven, thanks for your analysis.
8 posted on 12/03/2001 10:33:47 AM PST by meridia
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To: Starmaker
I thought there would be Hillary Pics involved in the treat.
9 posted on 12/03/2001 10:35:39 AM PST by A CA Guy
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To: Starmaker
My guess would be the "Palestinian Guided Missile" : a human being set up to detonate in the middle of a crowded bank, or mall.
I suspect most of the candidates, sent over/recruited for this purpose , get a good look at the USA -and what's in it for them- and say : "Bleep this human bomb crap !"
Unfortunately, all you need is that 2% that doesn't get the word...
10 posted on 12/03/2001 10:39:01 AM PST by genefromjersey
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To: Steven W.
The terrorists don't need to be physically infected. From the Center for Civilian Biodefence Studies website . "Contaminated clothing or bed linen could also spread the virus. Special precautions need to be taken to insure that all bedding and clothing of patients are autoclaved"

A few infected articles brought into an enclosed environment such as an airliner would be enough to get an epidemic started.

11 posted on 12/03/2001 10:39:23 AM PST by Rebelbase
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To: Starmaker
My ex-wife's refrigerater is the best place for bio-weapons designers to get cultures. She left some crap in there for about six months once, only to discover that whatever grew in there pitted the tupperware. What biological entity or waste toxin is it that can attack nylon?

This is a true story, Freepers!

12 posted on 12/03/2001 10:44:00 AM PST by GingisK
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To: tallhappy
i do wish that people would stop bringing up plague -- it's now very easily treated, to the extent that the flu is a far greater threat. now, in the area of the hemmoragiac viruses, there is cause for concern, though the incubation time for those is so short that they tend to be self limiting. smallpox, maybe -- which i somehow think i've heard a thing or two dozen about lately, including the president last week ordering up several million doses of vaccine -- or tetanus. then there are poisons, from plutonium to ricin to botulin. as to the author of this raging shriek, someone might want to point out to her that botulism is not a communicable disease. you get poisoned by botulin, you die, end of story. for her to suggest that someone is a botulism carrier is as goofy as if she were to describe someone as the carrier of toadstools.

dep

13 posted on 12/03/2001 11:01:33 AM PST by dep
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To: GingisK
My ex-wife's refrigerater is the best place for bio-weapons designers to get cultures. She left some crap in there for about six months once

Tell your wife that she's either with us or with the terrorists.

If in doubt, throw it out!

14 posted on 12/03/2001 11:05:00 AM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Starmaker
They commit acts of terror from a warped pseudo-politico/religious belief system.

If you become absolutely convinced that your God has asked you to make the ultimate sacrifice (or to ask others to do so) because of how screwed up the world has become, and that by performing this holy duty it will help to set the world right again (by taking out a bunch of "evil-doers"), what else are you going to do?

Seems to me that Bush (and the rest of us Americans) believes the same, except for the suicide part. And here I thought we believed in that romantic "Man of La Mancha" stuff:

... To be willing to die so that honor and justice may live...

15 posted on 12/03/2001 11:12:22 AM PST by CubicleGuy
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To: Starmaker
In fact, the recent outbreak of Dengue Fever in Hawaii, a place not known for such outbreaks, and geographically isolated, may have been a dry run or a first attempt.

Er, no, not really. Pockets of dengue pops up from time time--including on the mainland (she may want to check out how many foreign plants, animals & other critters have migrated to Hawaii--& that'd include mosquitoes). I caught dengue either in Villahermosa or in & around Palenque/Agua Azul in Mexico. Is it a nice disease? No. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy (okay, there are a few, but I'm too polite to mention who they are). As usual, the very young, the elderly and those with compromised immune systems are vulnerable. Can someone recover from it? Of course--otherwise I wouldn't be writing this with dengue antibodies in my blood.

Bad analogy.

16 posted on 12/03/2001 11:13:05 AM PST by Catspaw
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To: sharktrager
the government is already preparing to vaccinate everyone

With what? Their 12 million stockpiled doses? It'll be the rich, powerful, and military that get vaccinated first, then Doc's, police, and firemen. If you don't fall into any of those categories, don't plan on getting a vaccination. With a 30% rate of death associated with Smallpox, you have a pretty decent chance of living, but you'll be scarred for life. It will be at LEAST a year before production of new vaccine can begin, and probably two years until enough is made to get to everyone. One last litte scarry stat, there is an estimated 80% susceptibility in the population. The vaccination loses effectiveness in as little as 10 years.

Lets plug some variables into a nice little epidemiological equation:

Rp(average # of new cases per single case) = S(density of susceptibles in polulation) x B(tranmission rate [~1 for smallpox]) x L(average period of time host remain infectious)

What do we get . . . 16 news cases of smallpox for every single new cases. Of course there would be quarantines, and this rate would obiously slow down, but with a such dense population centers as we have in the US, the spread could be epidemic very quickly, especially since the differetional diagnosis is chicken pox or the flu.

Do NOT make light of a Smallpox attack. We are unprepared.

17 posted on 12/03/2001 11:22:38 AM PST by realpatriot71
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To: MoralSense
I agree that there's a vast difference between a lingering painful disabling disease and a quick death through death-by-suicide-bomb. If this is the worst that can be done, than society is vastly safer than 2 months ago.
18 posted on 12/03/2001 11:26:02 AM PST by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: smolensk
Fortunately, smallpox is not contagious until the spreader has already started to breakout himself and also he will be very sick

Not true. I have read some article which stated this, but it is not accurate. Infected but symptonless people can spread it.

It is a lot more infectious later, so that may be the reason for this common misperception.

19 posted on 12/03/2001 11:31:25 AM PST by tallhappy
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To: dep
for her to suggest that someone is a botulism carrier is as goofy as if she were to describe someone as the carrier of toadstools.

Well said. Great, actually.

Small Pox is a serious concern in my opinion.

20 posted on 12/03/2001 11:33:13 AM PST by tallhappy
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