Thinking Ahead: Should Smallpox Become Reality, What Do We Do?

[ChemistCat]

There is a sizeable, cautious, but not hysterical contingent on FR that believes we may have been exposed to smallpox at some time in the last week. It's not something we know is happening. It's something we think is a reasonable scenario in light of other events. I'm starting this thread as a place to discuss what preparations our nation and communities do NOT seem to be making, and what our personal plans of action are if this CONTAGIOUS bioattack vector eclipses anthrax.

[Paleo Conservative]

Make sure you're SURE whomever you collect smallpox pus from doesn't have HIV. :shudder: And Hepatitis. HPV. Oh, this could just get to be a real mess.

You don't need their blood or body fluids, just a little of their virus but I'd probably select people who could be blood donors for that reason. Even when the government gives the vaccine, the virus often spreads to others without them trying. That's the good thing about this vaccine, it's just a live unattenuated virus and doesn't really require the government to spread it.

That is one reason why it is better to have children vaccinated first. They are much less likely to have nasty "social diseases" than adults. Transferring the vaccine from child to adult should be much safer than adult to child or adult to adult.

[FITZ]

I think that 30% was years ago. I think it also meant those who got the smallpox had a 30% death rate but many people didn't get smallpox then because they had immunity. There were also two kinds of smallpox --one variola major was very deadly, the other variola minor only killed about 1-2%. Variola minor prevented people from getting the worse kind. Agricultural people had exposure to cowpox which also provided immunity.

I think on one hand people today have better nourishment and hygiene......of course that doesn't prevent viruses like colds and flus and they hit clean people just as hard as they do dirty people. We might be a weaker kind of people in other ways because back in those days you probably had to be tough to even survive infancy from other diseases and we have more immune compromised people.

[Sci Fi Guy]

I heard on the radio that New York had a small pox outbreak decades ago. A hospital discovered that a man died from it it. It turns out that he had returned the month before from overseas. He had a whole month to spread it around. The city enacted a program to make sure that people could get the necessary injections. The program went as smooth as clockwork. Only about a dozen people ever got sick. Only one other person died of it.

I think that this will be a lot like the Y2K problems. A lot of talk and hype, but very little actual damage.

[vetvetdoug]

How did you like the fact that the Ruskies integrated Ebola into the Smallpox virus in their bioweapon experiments? Ebola and Smallpox, now those together would be a global nightmare.

[cgbg]

I for one plan if there is a single case to stay home, not answer the door, get my grandsons here as well as my daughter. Anyone who leaves the house other than to get vaccine won't be let back in. I am very serious. Then you just hunker down for a couple of months and wait it out.

You are on the right track. We live way out in the country. If we hear of more than a couple of cases then no visitors allowed until the epidemic clears. We call in sick to work for the first few days. Then take vacation, then call in sick, etc. Of course if the epidemic is bad after a week or two the bosses will finally be calling in sick themselves because they will be sick. :-( Nobody in, nobody out--and our Y2K provisions will be more than adequate.

[FITZ]

There is absolutely no way they need aborted fetuses to make this vaccine. Vaccinia virus is found in nature in mice and rodents, can infect cows and humans and other species. They can use living mice to reproduce the virus better than dead babies. I'm not sure the virus even reproduces in dead hosts.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Good plan!

[ChemistCat]

I'm sitting here with my copy of From Sea To Shining Sea by James Alexander Thom. I know there's a description in here about primary smallpox vaccination in the field. It won't make WileyCoyote happy but it should be of interest to the rest of us....

[harrier13]

Everybody risks their lives every day,merely by waking up.Life cannot be "idiot-proofed".

Because a potential problem may have been identified,it is just that...potential.It's a ghost and a tool of mass paranoia.It's what the terrorists want.

Myself,I'm going to wake up in the morning,breathe the fresh air and go about my business as I always have.

[FITZ]

That is one reason why it is better to have children vaccinated first.

Yes, it would be better to have the QA tested vaccine and all that, the next best thing would be to immunize children as you say. Parent to child wouldn't be too bad and really blood donors are as safe as anyone can be expected to be, I would consider them a worthwhile risk. Not an AIDS patient obviously.....but they will not have just one blister from that vaccine, they would likely get a disseminated infection from it.

[Paleo Conservative]

I think that 30% was years ago. I think it also meant those who got the smallpox had a 30% death rate but many people didn't get smallpox then because they had immunity. There were also two kinds of smallpox --one variola major was very deadly, the other variola minor only killed about 1-2%. Variola minor prevented people from getting the worse kind. Agricultural people had exposure to cowpox which also provided immunity.

The death rate among American Indians who had absolutely no immunity was around 70-90%. Also, if the smallpox were to come from samples stolen from the Soviet biolgical weapons program, the death rates could be very high. The Soviets collected strains from all over the world during the WHO eradication program. They chose a strain from India collected in 1967 as the basis of their research because it was particularly lethal.

[FITZ]

Thats what I'm afraid of, it's definitely not going to be smallpox from a strain of variola minor, it will be one of the very lethal ones. I'm waiting to see who around here gets the smallpox vaccine, then I'll just obtain a 'sample' and go from there. I'd take my kids up to the mountains where they wouldn't have any contact with people but it's going to be getting kind of cold up there soon.

[cajungirl]

My daughter who is pregnant and due any minute has gotton so she won't see friend who just flew in from somewhere on a plane. Might be a good idea, just tell newly arriving on a plane friends that you have a contagious disease,,hahaha,,really, it could be brought in on a plane. That is my biggest worry, we are so mobile that a contagious disease would spread pretty quickly.

[dawn53]

Smallpox "only" has a 30% mortality rate? Or is that the mortality rate for smallpox YEARS AGO?

This is a very good point. We thought inhaled anthrax had a 90% fatality rate, but so far we've seen a better rate of survival.

We have antivirals now, and it will be interesting to see if they can be used.

I got chicken pox at the age of 42 and because of antivirals, I was sick for only 4 days. Years ago, an adult with chicken pox would have been very ill.

Plus, one of the factors of mortality in smallpox is secondary infection, when the blisters break. We have much stronger antibiotics now.

Let's just say this, if smallpox is unleashed on the US, and thus the world, America will handle the outbreak much better than the majority of other countries.

[meridia]

Hi there, Fitz. The AVERAGE rate of mortality is 30%; however, the last time there was an outbreak in Canada, FIFTY PERCENT of people who contracted small pox died.

I do not understand how anyone can ever say, "ONLY thirty percent."

IF there is ever even ONE case of smallpox anywhere on the planet, the World Health Organization will consider it an international health emergency.

[ThePythonicCow]

Why haven't you done that for the flu?
It kills 20,000 people a year.

If flu hits my family (all healthy adults and teenagers) there is one chance in what - a million? - that one of us would die, and not much greater chance that any of us would suffer life scarring disfigurement or pain.

If smallpox hits my family, probably 1 in 3 of us is dead, and the other 2 spent a few days wishing we were dead too. Unless that is, the terrorists manage to let lose one of the more deadly forms, in which case its 9 in 10 chances all 3 of us are dead.

In other words, unchecked smallpox in a mobile unvaccinated population is far far more deadly than unchecked flu.

That's why one might consider locking the door and staying home for a month or two.

[meridia]

Hi Dawn53. You are right: "They" are really surprised that postmodern medical care is curing inhalational anthrax. AND, let us hope & pray that same would occur in the event of weaponized influenza strains, plagues, or smallpox.

But a 30% mortality rate is HUGE. Period.

[tallhappy]

There is a sizeable, cautious, but not hysterical contingent on FR that believes we may have been exposed to smallpox at some time in the last week.

75 posts and no one has addressed this statement. This would be a very significant thing if so, to understate it immensely.

Who thinks this? When, where how? etc.......

[FITZ]

Yes and I don't trust the figure of 30% either because like Paleo pointed out some people had death rates over 70%. In the past entire populations were wiped out and that was when people were far less mobile than we are today. Now if smallpox hits NY, it could be in Chicago within an hour. People travel and it's like colds and flus, people living 2000 miles apart can easily catch a cold from the same person and not know it.

[harrier13]

I hope no gymnast ever contracts smallpox.Those speedbumps would be a turnoff.