It is also very true to say that the Chinese leadership are very pragmatic.
This article has been written many times I first read it when it was talking about the planned Soviet Invasion of West Europe in the early 80s. It was accepted that any attack would first start with a massive chemical and conventional strike against command and control, logistics and pol points.
1) The Chinese have a very limited amphibious capability.
2) The Chinese have a very small blue water fleet, the majority is coastal, useless in this sort of operation.
3) The Chinese have a small airborne capability.
The surprise option, an invasion of a well armed country like Taiwan is not the same as launching a terrorist attack.
The Logistics alone will be a nightmare, the article says that civilian airliners would be used to land parachutists, that means they will have in some cases to be converted, brought to a central point, this will not go unnoticed, the same with using shipping both military and civilian.
In Intelligence they have what’s called a Hostile Activity Indicator.
Taiwan has one enemy only they are not like America they are not watching the whole world.
They study Chinese shipping, Chinese airlines, all military and political activity, the media, news or lack of news
But still it makes a good techno thriller.
Tony
The Taiwanese are tough, and conquering their island would be like bear-hugging a wasp's nest.
The referred-to article by Russell is found What if . . . "China Attacks Taiwan!"
The people who brought us the whitepapers on Asymmetric (unrestricted) Warfare are back in the spotlight.
One thing to add... China WILL attack, but not based on what Taiwan does. An attack on Taiwan is the CCP's "assasin's mace" or 'trump card' to keep themselves in power.
If the internal situation inside of China goes awry with civil discontent at CCP rule, then they will launch an attack.
They will launch the attack to do nothing more than save their own @sses from the mobs of people.
Find out how probable civil unrest is inside of China and you will find out how probable an attack is.