[KevinDavis]

Our friends the Chinese

[Dog]

George Will wrote this??

Something to keep to ponder.

[TLBSHOW]

They are communist so never believe a word they say. Kiang!

[SauronOfMordor]

Lots of possibilities:

• Commercial airliners secretly modified to accomodate paratroopers
• Using lots of small boats swarming across the Taiwan Strait
• Helicopters ferrying troops from merchant ships a few miles off shore

And timed to happen when the US is too deeply into a war against Islam to have the resources to spare to stop them -- which is why I still think they had a finger in the pie on 9/11/2001

[hchutch]

*Sigh*

First thing to keep in mind. If the PRC attacks Taiwan with weapons of mass destruction (chemical, biological, or nuclear), there is a very distinct possibility that they will catch some weapons of mass destruction from us or Taiwan (probably the latter - they worked on nuclear weapons with the Israelis and possibly the South Africans. We know the Israelis and the South Africans both have nukes, so it is possible that Taiwan has them, too).

Second thing to remember is this: Taiwan is an island nation, and as such is more dependant on the sea for sustaining its economy. If the ChiComs are to make a move, it will be a naval blockade, primarily built around a rather large (albeit most of the subs will be old) submarine force.

The worst that can possibly happen is a somewhat more modern version of the 1939-1945 Battle of the Atlantic, when Germany tried to cut off the Brits. It didn't work then, it didn't work in World War I, either. In fact, of the three times unrestricted submarine warfare has been tried, we're the only ones who pulled it off.

It will be ugly, but if the ChiComs were to try anything, they'd get one hell of a bloody nose, and not too much to show for it. They might even lose the Olympics (not too hard to re-award the things, particularly "in light of recent events").

[Montfort]

"Such surprise and ruthlessness may seem far-fetched--as far-fetched as the idea of using commercial aircraft as bombs to level skyscrapers would have seemed a month ago, had anyone imagined it."

Okay, the Capitol Building in DC may not be a "skyscraper," but I think we can say that such acts were "imagined" when it appeared in one of the bestselling novels of the 90s by an author whose novels tend to be pretty realistic--Tom Clancy.

[Dallas]

"and ye shall hear of wars, and rumours of wars"

[norton]

I think,
an opinion no more of less worthy than any other's guesswork;

The Chinese are most likely to continue efforts to isolate Taiwan, that could include blockade and threats against trade inks.
In order to take direct military action they would have to be absolutely convinced, dead certain, that they could do the job without being bloodied too badly and without being hammered diplomatically by a slightly more energized UN, US, et al.

In addition, if this is played properly (by us) China would benefit far more from taking advantage of a world wide terrorist crack down. They have their own internal islamic problem just as do so many other nations around the world.
If I was advising G.W.B. one of the first things I'd suggest would be a back channel message to every known player (governments and terrorist groups alike) telling them that all of the liberal's "humanitarian" rants and use of human rights as foreign policy had gone into the dumpster as a result of the Durban sideshow and September 11th.

A free pass for each and every one to take their own little ethno-terrorist problems to a logical end.

[lavaroise]

Anyone thinking that our interests in South East Asia can be protected by asking Taiwan to defend them is deluded. It probably would be cheaper for Taiwan to turn against us than against China, we have become so cheap, so reliant and so wellfare oriented with our allies.

[onedoug]

Should we then go nuclear? If they'd shove to that extent, they'd shove as it pleased them when it pleased them. Maybe they need to know that we'll take 'em on if necessary. And that WE will prevail.

[okie_tech]

It would be great timing. Our attention and our military is diverted and our economy is already substantialy weakened. If I were a chinese general I would probably be recommending it myself. Even if they lost, which is not a forgone conclusion, the economic blow to the US alone would be devastating.

[Jhoffa_]

Be interesting if Taiwan had Nuke-toting Submarines laying off it's shores.

[boris]

I have been saying for some time that America's enemies could use our preoccupation -- and hollowed-out military-- to launch well-timed attacks. Not only China against Taiwan, but North Korea against South Korea, and even Hussein against Kuwait.

If they did this more-or-less simultaneously, what would we do about it?

But since I am not George Will...

--Boris

[blackbag]

lest we forget

[bimbo]

It is U.S. strategic doctrine that the armed forces should be sufficient to successfully fight two major regional conflicts simultaneously.

That's DOCTRINE only - a leftover from the days when the the U.S Military reigned supreme. Ten years ago we couldn't even engage Iraq (whose greatest military prowess was the propensity to surrender) without calling up the reserves ... and that was before Clinton gutted the services.

[caltrop]

Don't worry, even though our Navy is down to around 300 ships we've still got 23 US Army bases and 75,000 GIs (plus their dependents and support) in Germany. I'm sure the reason we keep them there is to intimidate the Chinese.

[independentmind]

bttt

[tallhappy]

You fellows need to read this recent report, Taiwan to use Guam Air Bases in Times of War

It is a time fo war.

[Lessismore]

China doesn't need to attack Taiwan. As China's economic and political systems evolve, the cultural affinities and economic interests will result in the integration of Taiwan and China.

[Minuteman23]

Your thoughts?

[ppaul]

Well, this isn't from DEBKA.
What now?