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The referred-to article by Russell is found What if . . . "China Attacks Taiwan!"

The people who brought us the whitepapers on Asymmetric (unrestricted) Warfare are back in the spotlight.

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From Russell:

The scenario is not impossible. The Chinese might want to resort to force in the near to medium terms before Taiwan has time to strengthen its defenses under US tutelage. In short, storm clouds are gathering in Asia, and war over the Taiwan Strait could come sooner rather than later. Only if we consider the possibility can we prudently prepare to discourage it or to deal with it.