Posted on 09/10/2001 6:30:38 AM PDT by areafiftyone
WASHINGTON -- With members of the Senate's old guard dropping out of 2002 re-election campaigns, Republicans are facing a battle next year in a place they least expected: the South.
So far this year, GOP Sens. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, Jesse Helms of North Carolina and Phil Gramm of Texas have announced they will not run again in 2002.
Sen. Fred Thompson, a Tennessee Republican, also has signaled he may retire.
For Republicans struggling to regain their majority in the Senate, the departures mean the party will have to focus effort and resources to retain seats in the South that otherwise would have been sure things.
Much is at stake also for President Bush in the 2002 elections. Since Republicans lost control of the Senate in June, the White House has seen key initiatives watered down or ignored by the Democrat-controlled chamber.
All told, Republicans next year are defending 20 Senate seats, including the three open races in the South. Just 14 Democrat-held seats are up, and incumbents are seeking re-election in all of them.
The South, regarded in recent decades as default Republican territory, is shaping up to be the next major battleground.
"We are going to have some very competitive races, I think," said Merle Black, professor of politics and government at Emory University in Atlanta and an expert on politics of the Deep South. "At this point, I think there is no Southern state that's safe for either party."
It's quite a change since last year's presidential election, when Republican Bush swept the South and Democrat Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee.
But politics has been shifting in the South for many years, experts said, particularly as economic prosperity in the urban areas began exerting a moderating influence on traditional Southern conservatism of the past.
"Politics in the South have become so much more complex, with two-party battles shaping up differently from the past," said Charles O. Jones, senior fellow of governmental studies at the Brookings Institution.
Key factors in the change have been the rise in political clout among blacks in the South, and a new breed of moderate Southern conservative in the GOP.
"It really is a passage from the old to the new, with a younger type of Southern Republican on the rise who is much broader and more likely to be a bit more right-center than far right on issues," Jones said.
In recent years, the older generation of politicians and their signature issues has passed out of vogue, and the Southern states are no longer the safe haven they've been for decades.
In particular, the aging and impending retirements of Helms, 79, and Thurmond, 98, are emblematic of the old South giving way to the new, experts said.
"There was a whole series of issues that propelled the conservative movement in the South over the last 30 to 40 years that helped create their careers, but those issues have dissipated and are no longer part of the national debate," said Hastings Wyman, publisher of the Southern Political Report.
Fighting communism and socialism and defending capitalism are no longer the burning national issues they were when Helms first ran for office nearly 30 years ago, Wyman said.
"And these days, no one wants to be identified with segregationist politics," Wyman said, "although 30 years ago that was not the case."
Heading into the midterm elections, Republicans had hoped to devote their resources to unseating vulnerable Senate Democrats in states such as Iowa, Minnesota and Montana.
The Helms and Thurmond retirements were not unexpected, and their states were considered sufficiently Republican-leaning to guarantee GOP succession.
But the wide-open field and prospects for shoring up power in the Senate also have energized Democrats, who last year lost the White House and also occupy the minority in the House.
Gramm, whose anti-immigration rhetoric and staunch conservatism positioned him among the Senate's traditional Southern conservatives, put Texas back in play for Democrats when he announced last week he would retire from office.
Now, facing the prospect of that seat falling into the hands of Democrats, Gramm is being pressured by his party to resign early. This would allow Gov. Rick Perry to appoint a Republican successor who would become the instant front-runner in a special election to complete Gramm's term and for election to a full term in 2002.
Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, declared Texas "a battleground state."
"The Texas Senate race (was) considered to be a seat safely in Republican hands," Murray said. Now, "the Republican caucus is on the defensive."
With no presidential election next year, the Senate races will top the ballots in every state with a contest.
Both parties since the last election have been breaking fund-raising records in anticipation of the crucial midterm elections, reminding voters that control of the agenda in Washington hinges on the outcome.
As it stands, the Democrats have a tenuous 50-49-1 advantage in the Senate, after Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont earlier this year switched from Republican to independent.
Jeffords' defection triggered a realignment of power that deposed Republicans from powerful Senate committee chairmanships and handed control of the agenda to Democrats.
In its quest to keep Helms' seat Republican, the White House began work early in the North Carolina Senate race. Bush adviser Karl Rove urged former presidential candidate Elizabeth Dole to run, even though Bush and Dole have long been unfriendly.
Dole is regarded a strong prospect, and at least one Democrat has so far filed for the race.
Another potential trouble spot for Republicans in the South is Arkansas, where incumbent Sen. Tim Hutchinson faces a challenge from Democrat Mark Pryor.
Although Hutchinson has a significant lead in fund-raising, Pryor comes from a politically influential family and is the son of David Pryor, a former U.S. senator and governor.
In South Carolina, Rep. Lindsay Graham is considered a likely GOP front-runner, although at least one prominent Democrat also is eyeing the race.
In Texas, potential GOP contenders include Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, Land Commissioner David Dewhurst, Attorney General John Cornyn and Rep. Joe Barton of Ennis.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Ken Bentsen, former Attorney General Dan Morales and Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk are considering a run. The only formally announced candidate for either party is Democrat Ed Cunningham, a sports lawyer and political newcomer.
It's a far cry from a few weeks ago, when Gramm's retirement was the same old rumor in political circles and his 2002 re-election was considered a lock.
Black said Republicans in the South are seeing a return to political equilibrium after huge gains by the party in the 1990s installed Republicans to power in most states, including Texas.
"You had that huge surge in the '90s, and it put Democrats on the defensive," Black said. "It's returning to normal, competitive politics."
At the same time, one Republican strategist noted that it may be easier, given the changing nature of Southern politics, for the GOP to win in open races with moderate candidates like Dole than to continue defending old-schoolers like Helms and Thurmond.
Still, the economy could prove a detriment to Republican political aspirations if growth continues to lag or the nation experiences a true recession, experts said.
Wyman noted that when President Reagan was in office and contending with economic setbacks, Republicans lost important races in the South.
Rudy Fernandez, spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said the retirement announcements came early enough for the party to be ready.
"We feel very comfortable that we are going to be able to retain majorities in the South," Fernandez said. "The three senators are from conservative states, and states that President Bush won with comfortable margins."
I feel sorry for the guy. He is a victim of unbelievably poor timing, but he will go down in history as having presided over a very bleak era, at least in economic terms.
This attention he is devoting to Mexico while our economy is evaporating around him is bordering on an obsession.
Commodity prices have stabilized over the last two months which is usually one of the first signs of an impending recovery. We are, I believe, going to see fairly good economic news(if the liberal media reports it accurately)beginning in the first quarter of 2002 and continuing throught the year.
Stay positive, life is too short...
There is a lesson to be learned from the liberals, if people would just open their eyes and see it. There is strength in unity and that is where they get their power. They're unified and nothing distracts them from that. They take care of their own within themselves - we don't see it. For instance, they've not trashed Condit, but behind the scenes they've told him exactly what's in his future. A lesson to be learned!
Here, Here!
I'm not so sure about that.
I predict that we'll have two women candidates for Senate, which would be a first for NC.
What do you know about Sanders, the Democratic candidate (the Dems Ninth Choice)? He seems to be a pretty funny, laid back sort of guy. Is he serious? I have a feeling (or is it just my hope?) that your two candidates will run a relatively congenial campaign--probably will go out of their way to be polite. Mr. McMaster and Dick Harpootlian are a totally different story, however. I read about the hiring incident at the college. From an objective point of view, I don't think that's going to hurt Sanders.
But, of course, I totally agree that Lindsey Graham will take that seat.
1. Liddy won't get the gunowners vote, especially in crucial rural areas. Faircloth blew that in 98. Jesse Helms remembered the rural areas every time. He even won his last election after most of the 'research triange' was there.
2. Liddy will have problems with pro-lifers.
3. Liddy hasn't lived in NC for years and will be viewed as a 'power that be'.
4. Bob Dole had the advantage of running against Klinton in NC. Liddy, who IMO has Bob's views(not a compliment), will run against a probably native NC'er
Click Here for Recent Portrait of America Poll Results
August 27, 2001
North Carolina Republican Primary - US Senate Race
If the North Carolina Republican primary were held today, Elizabeth Dole would have no trouble winning. A Portrait of America survey of likely Republican primary voters shows Mrs. Dole capturing 65% of the vote. She ranks high among both men (63%) and women (67%).
Question Wording:
1. If the 2002 North Carolina Republican primary were held today, for which US Senate candidate would you be most likely to vote?
7% Richard Burr
65% Elizabeth Dole
8% Richard Vinroot
9% Lauch Faircloth
2% Some other candidate
9% Not sure
August 27, 2001
North Carolina US Senate Race
A Portrait of America survey conducted on August 25 and 26, 2001 asked 1292 likely general election voters in North Carolina who would be their choice for US Senator if the general election comes down to different pairs of candidates. When Elizabeth Dole was the Republican candidate she won each time. Even in the closest match-up, Dole vs. Jim Hunt, she received 56% to Hunt's 44%.
Question Wording:
1. If the general election comes down to Democrat Jim Hunt and Republican Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vote?
44% Jim Hunt
56% Elizabeth Dole
2. If the general election comes down to Democrat Jim Hunt and Republican Richard Vinroot, for whom would you vote?
59% Jim Hunt
41% Richard Vinroot
3. If the general election comes down to Democrat Jim Hunt and Republican Lauch Faircloth, for whom would you vote?
61% Jim Hunt
39% Lauch Faircloth
4. If the general election comes down to Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vote?
34% Elaine Marshall
66% Elizabeth Dole
5. If the general election comes down to Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Richard Vinroot, for whom would you vote?
49% Elaine Marshall
51% Richard Vinroot
6. If the general election comes down to Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Lauch Faircloth, for whom would you vote?
54% Elaine Marshall
46% Lauch Faircloth
7. If the general election comes down to Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vote?
34% Dan Blue
66% Elizabeth Dole
8. If the general election comes down to Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Richard Vinroot, for whom would you vote?
45% Dan Blue 55% Richard Vinroot
9. If the general election comes down to Democrat Dan Blue and Republican Lauch Faircloth, for whom would you vote?
49% Dan Blue
51% Lauch Faircloth
Portrait of America conducted this survey of 1292 likely general election voters in the state of North Carolina on August 25 and 26, 2001. The margin of sampling error is +/-2.8 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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