Posted on 09/28/2026 9:07:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Everyone is watching the wrong thing this morning.
The headline is that President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Oil jumped. Brent is back above $106. The pundits are calling it another setback for peace.
They’re missing what actually happened.
Iran offered to reopen the Strait within seven days if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade, released frozen assets, and eased sanctions. Six months ago, that offer would have been taken seriously. Hormuz was the single most valuable card Tehran held. Twenty percent of the world’s oil ran through it, and Iran could turn the flow on and off with a few drone strikes.
Trump said no. And the reason he could say no is sitting in the shipping data.
According to Kpler, oil flows through Hormuz have recovered to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels. Not because Iran stopped attacking tankers. It hasn’t. Flows recovered because the U.S. Navy carved out a protected shipping lane along Oman’s coast, and the Gulf producers moved their loadings into it. Saudi Arabia alone loaded seven supertankers from its Gulf terminals in a single weekend. Saudi crude exports in September are up nearly 80% over August.
Flows recovered because the U.S. Navy carved out a protected shipping lane along Oman’s coast, and the Gulf producers moved their loadings into it. Saudi Arabia alone loaded seven supertankers from its Gulf terminals in a single weekend. Saudi crude exports in September are up nearly 80% over August.
At the same time, the Saudis restarted the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea eleven days after a drone strike shut it down. It’s running at reduced volume for now, but it’s running.
Put simply, the U.S. and its Gulf partners spent the summer building a workaround to Iran’s chokepoint. And it’s working well enough that Washington can now reject a reopening deal without the oil market falling apart.
Now for the piece that matters for your portfolio.
When a reporter asked Trump whether he would strike Iran after the midterms, he didn’t dismiss the question. He said he was rejecting their deal because Iran is losing so badly it wants the Strait open immediately.
That’s the President telling you the timetable. The pressure campaign continues, the workaround keeps Gulf oil flowing, and the next major escalation decision is scheduled for after November 3.
Here is what that means.
First, oil is likely to stay elevated but capped. The Navy lane and the Saudi pipeline put a ceiling on how bad supply can get. Iran’s ability to spike prices has been degraded. Brent above $100 with two-thirds of flows restored is a risk premium, not a shortage.
Second, energy infrastructure that bypasses chokepoints is now a strategic asset class. Pipelines that avoid Hormuz, LNG export terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast, Red Sea and Mediterranean loading capacity. Every one of these just proved its worth in real time, and governments are going to fund more of them.
Third, the midterms are now a hard date on the geopolitical calendar. The window between now and early November is the window in which the market prices a contained conflict. What happens after is a separate question, and one worth being positioned for before it arrives.
This is the “two maps” I keep coming back to. Iran is fighting on a map of chokepoints. Washington is fighting on a map of alternatives, and it’s winning.
This is the kind of shift that separates investors who make money from the ones who get blindsided. The Fed can’t fix a wartime economy with rate hikes, the Gulf is being rerouted by the U.S. Navy, and inflation is going to stay with us far longer than Wall Street’s models suggest.
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There goes Iran’s plan to tax the world.
Go Navy! As a Navy veteran myself, I am so deeply proud of our Navy.
*** and inflation is going to stay with us far longer than Wall Street’s models suggest. ***
And for some of us who didn’t support the war in Iran, that’s the real take away.
Gee, someone must have read my posts to do this...
The war is going to have to be fought either now or sometime in the future ( when Iran actually has the nukes ).
You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you. You cannot wish the disappearance of nuclear weapons away from a regime adamant on having it.
Inflation now or even higher inflation later.
Choose your poison.
*** The war is going to have to be fought either now or sometime in the future ( when Iran actually has the nukes ). ***
Fear Porn. Let’s just pass the nuclear threat on to our Grandchildren, like our government debt.
Of course this is reflected in fuel prices. Right?
Yep! We can really accept, blindly, everything the Wall Street Urinal says/prints...
Good grief!
“The workaround keeps Gulf oil flowing.” Brilliant plan by brilliant American leaders. Iran has failed and can only hope that the American leaders are nicer than Iranian leaders. Gas here is $6.29 here in So Cal and I trust the prices will decrease soon.
I pulled some 2023 HEB Dinner Starters seasoned Carne Guesada out of my freezer today. The price per lb said $1.49 a lb.
I looked on the HEB website to see the current price of the same item. $6.87 a lb.
Does that count as inflation?
We know the clerics will use nuke bombs if they made them, I’m confident they would nuke Israel first.
I’m agnostic regarding Israel but I do know Israel has nukes. So within hours there will be multiple mushroom clouds over the middle east. And the clouds w nuclear fallout IOW dust, would circle the earth for several months. Imagine how that will impact your Quality of Life n inflation! Potentially every plant n tree with fallout on it.
The death cult clerics need to go into the dustbin of history before they make history.
I like that Trump is straggling Iran financially
Blame Greasy Newsom for shutting down 2 CA refineries for the high fuel cost.
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