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Treasury yields are already blowing up the CBO’s long-term forecasts, and experts who previously downplayed U.S. debt fears are now starting to worry
Fortune ^ | Jason MaSept. 21, 2026

Posted on 09/21/2026 3:12:28 PM PDT by GrootheWanderer

Add it all up, and the future looks more expensive. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that if yields remain more than 80 basis points over baseline projections, the U.S. will spend $2.7 trillion on annual interest payments by the end of the decade—more than Medicare or Social Security retirement benefits.

“The real threat is the debt spiral. If interest begets debt, and debt begets interest, eventually debt will spin out of control. A fiscal crisis, once unthinkable, is now a distinct possibility,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the CFRB, said on Monday.

The budget watchdog and others have been sounding the alarm for years about the debt and deficit. But the Treasury market’s rapid deterioration is now alarming those who previously downplayed the risks.

The 10-year yield has jumped a full percentage point since right before the Iran war started in late February and a half point in the past two months alone.

(Excerpt) Read more at fortune.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bet; bonds; captobvious; collapsebydesign; debt; deficit; inflation; intentionalcrisis; stopspending; treasury; wellduh

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Unfortunately, no one is Washington is concerned about reducing spending, the debt and the deficit.
1 posted on 09/21/2026 3:12:29 PM PDT by GrootheWanderer
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To: GrootheWanderer

“ Unfortunately, no one is Washington is concerned about reducing spending, the debt and the deficit.”

Chuck Shoemah is. He is concerned that if nobody talks about it, he can’t run to a mic and start screaming about killing grandma, hurting children, and the other evils of cutting the budget. All in the name of just being in charge!! Get them votes, and the bus and go over the cliff. Chuck won’t mind, as long as he is driving.

The GOP is so shell shocked by the political losses they have absorbed talking about fiscal responsibility, very few in the party are willing to die on that hill. One shutdown beating too many.

So yah, we are screwed.


2 posted on 09/21/2026 3:20:20 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: GrootheWanderer

But the federal reserve can do whatever it wants to interest rates ?


3 posted on 09/21/2026 4:19:50 PM PDT by lonestar67 (America is exceptional)
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To: FlipWilson

Please. They’re in on it.


4 posted on 09/21/2026 4:24:46 PM PDT by 03A3 (If we can defund the police, we sure as hell can defund the FBI)
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To: GrootheWanderer

Wonder how much of the debt is held by American individual, institutions, companies, etc. Versus how much of it is held by foreigners.

If most is held by “us”, how bad is that?


5 posted on 09/21/2026 4:26:20 PM PDT by cymbeline
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To: lonestar67

Short-term bonds? Yes. Long-term bonds? No, the market sets those. The market sets those, and right now, the market is saying they are growing increasingly risky to buy.


6 posted on 09/21/2026 4:31:01 PM PDT by GrootheWanderer
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To: GrootheWanderer

> the U.S. will spend $2.7 trillion on annual interest payments by the end of the decade

$30,000 to $40,000 per typical family will be thrown away every year. Imagine if we had simply kept spending at reasonable levels.


7 posted on 09/21/2026 4:32:43 PM PDT by ArcadeQuarters (You can't remove RINOs by voting for them!)
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To: FlipWilson

“ Unfortunately, no one is Washington is concerned about reducing spending, the debt and the deficit.”

That’s because voters will not like politicians that tell us specifically what needs to be done. Trump says we’ll grow our way out of it. I think we’ll just muddle our way through it.


8 posted on 09/21/2026 4:33:20 PM PDT by cymbeline
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To: cymbeline

Only $8.5 trillion is held by foreign govts and investors. Its mostly us.


9 posted on 09/21/2026 4:33:25 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: cymbeline

About half is held by American firms or citizens.


10 posted on 09/21/2026 4:35:31 PM PDT by GrootheWanderer
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To: GrootheWanderer

We are spending too much money.
We should not be spending money on the Hormuz war.

We should not be spending money on low priority and duplicate bureaucrats. Example: Every state polices and taxes Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms. The ATF has no reason to exist.

We should not be spending money on FRAUD Waste Abuse.
Example. Deloitte contracts with the Federal and state governments for Federal money. Deloitte is the #1 Welfare FRAUD. Yet we continue to fund that FRAUD.


11 posted on 09/21/2026 5:10:58 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: GrootheWanderer
About half is held by American firms or citizens.

It will be a problem if citizens, hurt by high costs and a failing economy, start cashing out of banks, retirement accounts, etc. that fund the U.S. debt. Where will the U.S. gov't get the money to pay the rising interest on the debt? $2.7 trillion isn't easily found under a mattress somewhere. Can't raid Social Security, it is failing. Possibly seize assets of Congress members, but won't be enough. Can't kick the can down the road, soon it is game over..

12 posted on 09/21/2026 5:12:19 PM PDT by roadcat ( )
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To: cymbeline

>> If most is held by “us”, how bad is that?

What is the difference who holds the debt? No matter who it is, they expect to get paid back, with interest.


13 posted on 09/21/2026 5:33:22 PM PDT by qwerty1234
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To: GrootheWanderer
It's time for another Continuing Resolution so everyone can get out of town by Christmas as well as Election Season.

That way, the Budget is fully funded for another year! /s/

14 posted on 09/21/2026 5:52:18 PM PDT by Gritty (Sharia is a hill somebody’s going to die on. In America it won't be Americans. - James H. Kunstler)
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To: GrootheWanderer

“$2.7 trillion on annual interest payments”

I’m spending down what remains of probably my last inheritance.


15 posted on 09/21/2026 6:32:38 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: GrootheWanderer

Replace Congress with a bunch of drunken sailors.


16 posted on 09/21/2026 6:33:42 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: GrootheWanderer

Live well now because the future will be hell.


17 posted on 09/21/2026 6:36:50 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: GrootheWanderer

May I introduce you to BC. You’re welcome.


18 posted on 09/21/2026 6:37:30 PM PDT by eyedigress (Trump is my President!)
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To: lonestar67; GrootheWanderer; Toddsterpatriot

“But the federal reserve can do whatever it wants to interest rates ?”

No. Bond traders determine the majority of interest rates by what they are willing to pay for bonds in the secondary market.

The Fed can set the interest rate that it pays commercial banks on the reserves that they have deposited at the Fed but that’s about it.


19 posted on 09/21/2026 7:02:57 PM PDT by Pelham (President Eisenhower. Operation Wetback 1953-54)
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To: cymbeline

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331


20 posted on 09/21/2026 7:05:39 PM PDT by Pelham (President Eisenhower. Operation Wetback 1953-54)
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