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Iran, the Midterms, and October Surprises
American Greatness ^ | 17 Sep, 2026 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 09/17/2026 4:56:51 AM PDT by MtnClimber

The Iran war could reshape the midterms as Democrats, Iran’s regime, dissidents, and Kurdish rebels weigh the political and military stakes of the next 50 days.

Many narratives swirl around the U.S. war with Iran as the November 3 midterm elections loom.

The Left is giddy with confidence that Democrats may take control of Congress. It is therefore planning a circus of impeachments, lawfare, and investigations to neuter the last two years of the Trump administration.

High gas prices and the current unpopularity of the Iran conflict, coupled with the historical reality that the president’s party has lost seats in Congress in 39 of the last 41 midterm elections, have convinced Democrats that they could win enough seats to cut off funds for the war.

Yet the elections are still seven weeks away, and the sheer number of known unknowns ensures an uncertain outcome.

Every side is now gaming the midterms.

The Democrats believe the unpopular war can at last halt Trump’s momentum and are already declaring it all but lost.

The Iranian theocracy agrees.

It will do its best to ratchet up tensions with a series of October surprises in hopes that Trump loses control of Congress and the United States reverts to familiar Democratic policies of ending sanctions and downplaying Iran’s race toward nuclear weapons.

Its leaders also remember Barack Obama’s “hands-off” policy when a million Iranians took to the streets during the Green Revolution of 2009. Then-President Obama remained silent as thousands of protesters were jailed and killed.

As for Trump, he remains enigmatic and says only that the war will likely end shortly after the midterms.

Trump could simply mean that Iran is on the ropes and the regime cannot survive much more than two months.

(Excerpt) Read more at amgreatness.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Iran; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; leftism; vdh; victordavishanson; waronterror
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1 posted on 09/17/2026 4:56:51 AM PDT by MtnClimber
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To: texas booster

VDH ping


2 posted on 09/17/2026 4:57:19 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber

Buckle up.


3 posted on 09/17/2026 5:01:06 AM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?)
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To: MtnClimber

Yup. Already been saying this.


4 posted on 09/17/2026 5:03:17 AM PDT by Merrick
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To: MtnClimber

The difficulty that Hanson cannot address, is that one side is right, and one side is wrong.

The ‘Rats have picked their side. Perhaps closing down Congress is the only course left. Hanson will not suggest this, as he sees this as an “election” (like 2020) and business as usual.


5 posted on 09/17/2026 5:10:15 AM PDT by Empire_of_Liberty
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To: MtnClimber
Trump could simply mean that Iran is on the ropes and the regime cannot survive much more than two months.

I would expect better from Hanson.
What it means is if the left wins, Iran wins because they will have friends in U.S. leadership.

If the right holds on, Iran has only the media (which it has now) and the punishment will continue.

6 posted on 09/17/2026 5:44:31 AM PDT by grobdriver (The CDC can KMA!)
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To: MtnClimber
As for Trump, he remains enigmatic and says only that the war will likely end shortly after the midterms.

That's not what they are planning. Trump wouldn't be lying about this would he? That is what all of those 2000lb bombs we just sold to Israel are all about. Now Israel just has to find a way to deliver them from the air. Solution, Enter the US, right after the midterms.

.

Good reference material - 9/17/26:


7 posted on 09/17/2026 6:02:40 AM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: 5th MEB; 6ppc; agondonter; Alberta's Child; AndyJackson; Aria; artichokegrower; ...
Ping! Out to the Victor Davis Hanson list

The people detest it. The Kurdish minority loathes it. Conditions on the ground are dire, with terrible shortages of food, medicine, and fuel.
The resistance may sense that the Trump administration would double down on kinetic force to finish off the wounded regime if a mass popular uprising emerged and needed support from the air.

Another excellent article from the pen of Prof Hanson. Now we wait to see if the democrats can make hay from it.

FR Index of his articles: Victor Davis Hanson on FR

Town Hall: Victor Davis Hanson on Town Hall

American Greatness: Victor Davis Hanson on American Greatness

His website: Victor Davis Hanson The Sword of Perseus

One of his sponsors' website: The Daily Signal

Please let me know if you want on or off this new VDH ping list.

As a reminder, Professor Hanson has asked that we do not post the full article of his writings. Thank you for following the link to finish his article.

Content created by the Center for American Greatness, Inc. is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a significant audience.

https://freerepublic.com/tag/victordavishanson/index

8 posted on 09/17/2026 6:11:00 AM PDT by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120) Cure Alzheimer's!)
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To: MtnClimber

Win.

Drop the bridges.

Bomb the electric turbines.

Stone Age.

Democrats can’t reverse that.

Once in a lifetime opportunity.


9 posted on 09/17/2026 6:20:31 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (When your Supreme Leader is easily whacked by Jews, reconsider how Akhbar your Allah is!)
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To: MtnClimber
It will do its best to ratchet up tensions with a series of October surprises in hopes that Trump loses control of Congress and the United States reverts to familiar Democratic policies of ending sanctions and downplaying Iran’s race toward nuclear weapons.

Guaranteed that this will happen. Look for an all-out ballistic missile blitz against our allies in the Gulf to make the case that we can't defend them. I hope the Trump people are ready for that.
10 posted on 09/17/2026 6:25:53 AM PDT by Antoninus (Confusion and disorder to the Left.)
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To: MtnClimber

Tent NOT big enough for Fetterman apparently. 🎪


11 posted on 09/17/2026 6:26:53 AM PDT by rktman (Patriotism not 'hateriotism' !. Enlisted USN 1967 proudly. 🇺🇸)
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To: Karl Spooner
As for Trump, he remains enigmatic and says only that the war will likely end shortly after the midterms.

What I took this to mean is that Trump is planning to finish the job after the midterms.
12 posted on 09/17/2026 6:27:17 AM PDT by Antoninus (Confusion and disorder to the Left.)
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To: Empire_of_Liberty
Perhaps closing down Congress is the only course left

Oh, I don't know. This is supposed to be kind of a Constitutional website.

Why not ask Congress for a Declaration of War against Iran, and obey the will of the People and the States as expressed by their representatives in Congress assembled?

13 posted on 09/17/2026 6:28:35 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Assez de mensonges et des phrases)
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To: Jim Noble

The US Constitution attempts to implement a functional Federal Government.

I get, that you don’t want that.


14 posted on 09/17/2026 6:45:42 AM PDT by Empire_of_Liberty
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To: Jim Noble

Sorry, Doc. There’s posters that are certain that President Trump will declare a national emergency and cancel the Federal election for several months.

Agreed. Why not ask Congress for a declaration of war?


15 posted on 09/17/2026 6:46:56 AM PDT by Fury
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To: All

President Trump told Reuters the war with Iran will end right after
midterms; he believes Tehran is holding out to influence the US vote.

Trump’s Reasons

Hoping for a Weak Government: Trump claims Iran is desperate and “hanging out for dear life”. He believes Tehran wants Democrats to win control of Congress so they can deal with a weaker group of leaders who might let Iran build a nuclear weapon.

Running Out of Time: Trump says Iran’s economy and military are crushed under U.S. pressure.
He believes the Iranian government cannot survive or fight any longer once the election passes.

No Targets Left: Trump stated in other interviews that US strikes have hit
almost everything of value in Iran, leaving “practically nothing left to target”.


16 posted on 09/17/2026 6:52:52 AM PDT by Liz (“The heavens declare the glory of Gd; the skies the work of His hands." (Psalm 19:1))
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To: Empire_of_Liberty
"The US Constitution attempts to implement a functional Federal Government."

Correct. "Federal" is derived from "federated" or "federation", which is what the US is, and "republican form of government" means the People and the States choose representatives to enact their will.

For this reason, the War Power of the States, Federally United, is given to the Congress representing both the People, who have to do the fighting, and the States, who have to provide the resources.

This isn't complicated.

17 posted on 09/17/2026 8:18:35 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Assez de mensonges et des phrases)
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To: Fury
Agreed. Why not ask Congress for a declaration of war?

Because it wouldn't pass.

18 posted on 09/17/2026 8:19:32 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Assez de mensonges et des phrases)
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To: MtnClimber

As it stands right now, the voters are neither for nor against the war in Hormuz.

The voters are against the high price of gasoline, higher prices for consumer products due to the increased cost of energy to make and deliver them.

Will that change between now and Nov? Much vote by mail and early voting will be decided before the impact of any October Surprise.


19 posted on 09/17/2026 8:40:49 AM PDT by spintreebob (:)
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To: Jim Noble

I think that there is too much wrong for you to understand.

It IS complicated.


20 posted on 09/17/2026 9:27:43 AM PDT by Empire_of_Liberty
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