A glimmer of light (midterm generic Congressional poll)

Powerlineblog ^ | September 3, 2026 | Scott Johnson

[lasereye]

In our long partnership, I am the pessimistic yang to John Hinderaker’s yin. Following this year’s primary results has reenforced my natural inclination with respect to the midterm elections. President Trump’s job approval is underwater. Democrats have turned out to vote and are jazzed, Republicans not so much. Democrats appear poised to take over both houses of Congress.

This week RealClearPolitics generic polls include one glimmer of light amid the gloom. The Harvard CAPS Harris Poll for the period August 28-30. Key results are posted here. All the results are interesting, but this one stands out amid the gloom. Henry Olsen also has some unconventional wisdom on the midterms in the Washington Post column “Democrats’ path to a House majority is narrower than it looks.”

Harvard/Harris poll | 8/28-8/30

(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟥Republican 51% (+2)
🟦Democratic 49% (-2)
—
(Registered voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 51% (+1)
🟥Republican 49% (-1)
——
(Registered voters)
President Trump approval… pic.twitter.com/LlFsSfXKYO— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) September 2, 2026

RCP aggregates and averages the results of polls that it follows. The current generic congressional polls are posted here. The Harvard Harris Poll is an outlier, but you can see how it caught my attention (clilck on it below to enlarge). Mark Penn is chairman of the Harris Poll and someone whom I have come to respect.

2026 Generic Congressional Vote

pollster	date	sample	Democrats(D)	Republicans (R)	spread
RCP Average	7/22 - 8/31	—	48	42.3	Democrats+5.7
Harvard-Harris	8/28 - 8/30	LV	49	51	Republicans+2
Economist/YouGov	8/28 - 8/31	1437 RV	46	40	Democrats+6
Reuters/Ipsos	8/28 - 8/31	924 RV	43	38	Democrats+5
Morning Consult	8/28 - 8/30	2200 RV	47	42	Democrats+5
Quantus Insights	8/26 - 8/28	1200 LV	50	43	Democrats+7
Rasmussen Reports	8/23 - 8/27	2231 LV	41	36	Democrats+5
Emerson	8/16 - 8/17	1000 LV	51	43	Democrats+8
Echelon Insights**	8/13 - 8/17	1002 LV	50	45	Democrats+5
Financial Times	8/7 - 8/11	1857 LV	51	45	Democrats+6
Cygnal	8/6 - 8/7	1500 LV	49	42	Democrats+7
RMG Research**	7/28 - 8/4	2000 RV	47	45	Democrats+2
Big Data Poll	7/27 - 7/29	2617 LV	50	39	Democrats+11
Marquette	7/22 - 7/29	572 LV	51	45	Democrats+6
Quinnipiac	7/23 - 7/27	963 RV	48	41	Democrats+7
CNN	7/23 - 7/27	914 RV	47	39	Democrats+8

---

TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: genericpolls; midterms; poll

[lasereye]

The Harvard-Harris chairman is Mark Penn, who was the pollster for both Clintons. He has become disenchanted with the Democrats in the last 10 years or so.

Turnout will be the key in close races. I've given money to "ballot chasers" Turning Point Action. I'll probably contribute to Paxton, Rogers and Collins. I believe those races are all in the polling margin of error.

[PermaRag]

Harvard-Harris has had some other outliers too. You might say the fact that they are an outlier is itself NOT an outlier. :-)

Another consistent outlier for hopium addicts is RMG Research (i.e. Scott Rasmussen).

[Ronald77]

If the Republicans lose it won’t be because of Trump, it will be because the do nothing spineless self serving Republican freaks in congress.

[Baldwin]

I follow Rich Baris of People’s Pundit. One of the most accurate pollster around. He says Harvard Harris is crap. Not looking good for Repubs unfortunately. Trump really alienated a large portion of his base with this war.

[Baldwin]

I should of said alienated a large part of his coalition.

[Libloather]

And it’s just the beginning of Trump rally season. Buckle up.

[Bob Wills is still the king]

“I follow Rich Baris of People’s Pundit. One of the most accurate pollster around. He says Harvard Harris is crap. Not looking good for Repubs unfortunately. Trump really alienated a large portion of his base with this war.”
____________________________________________________________

At his news conference this morning, Vance said “It’s not really a war” when he was asked about how much longer we would be militarily engaged.

Seems strange to run low on munitions when we’re in “not really a war.”

[ncalburt]

You’re quoting a Trump blame speech.

Trump never takes blame unlike Truman
Trump never allows to the buck to stop near him.

Trump has made big mistakes such as
Pushing the expansion of Pot for his POT lobby pals.
Peddling Data center for his AL billionaire donors rather than staying quiet like the dems.
Handing out 65,000 H1 visas for his Billionaire donors.
Promoting 600,000 Chinese spies in our colleges.
Not spending a penny of the 1.6 billion donor money and its already Sept.
The Iran war which is a bad quagmire.

Congress had nothing to do with these miss steps.

Sadly, It’s just like 2018.

[4 Libertys sake]

Why can’t it be BOTH?! The feckless GOP and the Oblivious Trump ignoring our economic pains?!

[lasereye]

Promoting 600,000 Chinese spies in our colleges.

What are you talking about?

Why do you assume that Trump is in favor of data centers because of donors?

The 65,000 H1 visa limit (plus an additional 20,000 for those with a U.S. master's degree or higher) is the law. Trump didn't "hand out" 65,000 H1 visas.