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The Permanent Democratic Majority Has Arrived
The American Conservative ^ | August 19, 2026 | Andrew Bay

Posted on 08/20/2026 10:44:37 AM PDT by Angelino97

You’ve probably heard that Donald Trump assembled a “multiracial coalition” in 2024, inaugurating a historic “realignment” of American politics that will enable the GOP to continue winning elections in our increasingly diverse nation.

It’s a deeply misguided reading of that election. It’s also a dangerous delusion for Republicans.

Racial diversity has made Democratic strongholds out of once-winnable cities like New York and states like California. It threatens to do the same in Texas and Georgia, both of which are now majority nonwhite. Just look at the latest polling for this year’s midterms: White Texans and Georgians strongly prefer the Republican candidate for Senate, yet in each state, the Democrat is projected to win.

The Texas race is admittedly close, but in Georgia, once a deep-red state, the incumbent Democratic senator could win by double digits.

Many conservatives misperceive the unfolding political catastrophe because of the widespread impression that America remains split right down the middle between the two parties. They scoff at the well-worn idea that Democrats are on the verge of securing a permanent majority via demographic transformation.

To be sure, several important factors have kept conservatives in the game up to now:

Countermajoritarian institutions—gerrymandering in the House, malapportionment in the Senate, the electoral college—have overwhelmingly benefited Republicans. The Democratic Party’s brand is in the toilet, and the GOP has managed to woo working-class whites in recent decades, offsetting increases in the nonwhite population over the same period.

Hispanics occasionally flirt with the GOP, as do Asians, to a lesser extent. Among age cohorts, only the under-25 crowd is majority nonwhite, and most of them can’t yet vote. Nor can the millions of illegals who streamed across the southern border under Joe Biden.

But you can’t get away from two basic facts: 1) Most nonwhite voters favor the Democrats, and 2) the country will be mostly nonwhite in a couple decades. A few years after that, America’s electorate will be mostly nonwhite. And since whites are politically more divided than nonwhites—with white liberals voting Democratic—doomsday will come even sooner for the Republicans.

In my view, it’s already here. Just consider presidential elections from the past few decades to appreciate the seismic changes underfoot and the political earthquakes that both the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election could bring.

The current political alignment began around the time of the Civil Rights movement, when the Republican Party adopted the “southern strategy” to gain support among white voters.

The GOP has been the white party ever since, and Republican presidential candidates, at first, dominated in this racial dispensation. Richard Nixon won a landslide victory in 1972, as did Ronald Reagan in 1984. The electoral maps for those elections are stark, with both Nixon and Reagan taking 49 out of 50 states.

By contrast, Trump’s winning maps from 2016 and 2024 show a mix of reds and blues. Like Nixon and Reagan, Trump won white voters but lost nonwhite voters, yet his margin in the electoral college was much slimmer, and in neither election did he crack 50 percent of the popular vote, despite running against deeply flawed candidates in races featuring no significant third-party spoilers.

The most important underlying variable accounting for these wildly different outcomes: The electorate had become less white.

But didn’t Trump make inroads with minority voters, proving that the GOP can thrive in a majority nonwhite America? Not really. Around 84 percent of Trump’s voters were white in 2024, only modestly more diverse than Mitt Romney’s 88 percent in 2012, despite the pool of eligible voters becoming less white in between. Yet Romney was panned for appealing only to white voters, whereas Trump was praised for “broadening the Republican coalition.”

People see what they want to see, I guess. Republicans were exuberant, and no one seemed receptive to my warning that Trump’s multiracial coalition was a mirage and the GOP was in big trouble. Republican donors, advisors, journalists, and think-tankers all told me different versions of the same thing: Trump won Hispanic men, we’ll get those minority voters—many are “natural Republicans,” after all!

Well, anything is possible. But no Republican presidential candidate since Herbert Hoover has won a majority of any nonwhite racial group. And remember those mitigating factors that I mentioned earlier, the factors that have kept Republicans in the game up to now? Many are eroding.

Nonwhite Americans too young to vote are only getting older. Trump has bled support among Hispanics, Asians, and even working-class whites. And while the millions of illegal aliens in our country can’t vote, their children, if born on American soil, will be able to.

In the upcoming midterms, gerrymandering may prevent a massive blue-shift in the House of Representatives, and this year’s Senate map happens to be a fairly tough one for Democrats.

But if you want to see the political future toward which America is hurtling, don’t turn to the wishcasting fantasies of myopic Republican strategists. Just look at New York City, which was 90 percent white in 1950 and is just 30 percent white today.

As the Big Apple has turned brown, its politics have turned blue. The last Republican mayor was Michael Bloomberg, a lifelong Democrat who, in 2001, switched parties to open a less obstructed path to Gracie Mansion. (In the “Republican” primary that year, Bloomberg defeated a former Democratic congressman.)

Following the Bloomberg era, the Republican candidates in Gotham’s mayoral elections have mostly served as something even more pitiful than Democrats in red ties: comic relief.

In the 21st century, the actual choice facing New Yorkers is between the progressive and establishment wings of the Democratic Party. So last year, after Zohran Mamdani—a democratic socialist born in Uganda—secured the Democratic primary, he easily won the general election, though white voters preferred the independent candidate Andrew Cuomo (another lifelong Democrat).

Across New York City, Mamdani enjoys high approval ratings in the nonwhite parts of the city and poor ratings in white areas.

That’s what’s in store for the country, and soon. Recent polling shows that 58 percent of Democrats see socialism in a positive light, 26 points higher than the number for capitalism, so a progressive lefty certainly could win the Dems’ presidential primary in 2028.

And unless I’m missing something about the racial character of American politics, the Republican candidate will discover that compelling arguments and slick campaign ads no longer counteract demographic headwinds. The permanent Democratic majority has arrived.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: surrendermonkey
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But you can’t get away from two basic facts: 1) Most nonwhite voters favor the Democrats, and 2) the country will be mostly nonwhite in a couple decades.
1 posted on 08/20/2026 10:44:37 AM PDT by Angelino97
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To: Angelino97

This trend won’t affect me because I will be gone, but it has screwed my kids and their kids. For that fact I hate all dims but especially RINO’s for what they are doing.


2 posted on 08/20/2026 10:48:05 AM PDT by Resolute Conservative
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To: Angelino97

Then shut down immigration. Problem solved. And kick out immigrant trouble makers.


3 posted on 08/20/2026 10:49:43 AM PDT by kaktuskid
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To: Angelino97

Eliminate cheating and secure the ballot box. Execute criminals tampering with elections. Bye bye ‘rat politicians.


4 posted on 08/20/2026 10:52:39 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Angelino97

But you can’t get away from two basic facts: 1) Most nonwhite voters aren’t stupid, and 2) the Democratic party is rapidly moving the party to stupid fantasy land.

We’ll be fine.


5 posted on 08/20/2026 10:52:59 AM PDT by bosco24
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To: Angelino97

another idiotic article....

1- we’ve heard this BS sine obama in 2008 that Republicans will never win another election

2- Hispanics voted in huge numbers for DJT in 2024

3- blacks have been moving away from the rat party...

4- the “democrat socialists” will destroy the other side...


6 posted on 08/20/2026 10:54:32 AM PDT by God luvs America
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To: Angelino97

We need more white peoples. I did my part. I have four conservative children.


7 posted on 08/20/2026 10:55:44 AM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: All

It’s over for America as soon as whites become an increasingly small minority.


8 posted on 08/20/2026 10:56:27 AM PDT by escapefromboston (Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none.)
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To: PGalt
These leftwing communist traitors were executed June 19,1953.
All communists & muzzoids should be dealt with in a similar manner.


9 posted on 08/20/2026 10:57:02 AM PDT by newfreep ("There is no race problem...just a problem race")
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To: newfreep

ABSOLUTEY!


10 posted on 08/20/2026 10:59:08 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: God luvs America
another idiotic article....

1- we’ve heard this BS sine obama in 2008 that Republicans will never win another election

2- Hispanics voted in huge numbers for DJT in 2024

3- blacks have been moving away from the rat party...

4- the “democrat socialists” will destroy the other side...

I agree. Hopefully most here won't fall for it.

11 posted on 08/20/2026 10:59:32 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: God luvs America

I think we heard the same thing after the 1976 and 1992 elections. If we have Republicans willing to fight every contested election, it would have made a difference. I am thinking in particular how the Republican political establishment abandoned Congressman Robert Dornan in 1996.


12 posted on 08/20/2026 11:00:57 AM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: Maine Mariner

Good point; I remember some NBC special about the Fall of the Republican Party after Gerry Ford lost to the phony liar from Plains. Mocking, claimed no future; less than four years later Governor Reagan won 489-49 and sent Goober packing back to the source of his incompetence. Rs hadn’t held the House since 1954 and the Senate only sporadically. So this mealy mouth junk isn’t new, its just regurgitated.


13 posted on 08/20/2026 11:04:53 AM PDT by laconic
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To: Angelino97

People leave Californian because they can’t stand the politics and the high-taxes and intrusive over-regulations and the lawlessness of the politicians. Same with NY and Illinois and Michigan and Minnesota and other blue areas.

So, if people can leave their hellholes behind, why not complete states leaving the new hellhole that America might become or is becoming. I’m talking about seceding, which would be the only and appropriate course towards having the proper form of government that was envisioned by our founding fathers.

Yeah, we can try to fight to take back the regions that are becoming un-American, but, it might lead to a major war or a very deadly civil war.

Leaving the hellhole behind will have the hellhole regretting ever becoming a socialist/communist shithole.


14 posted on 08/20/2026 11:10:14 AM PDT by adorno ( )
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To: laconic

That created a Democrat supermajority that passed looney policies still in effect today. And boys are suffering for that at the Department of Education now.


15 posted on 08/20/2026 11:10:46 AM PDT by WhiteHatBobby0701
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To: adorno
we can try to fight to take back the regions that are becoming un-American, but, it might lead to a major war or a very deadly civil war.

Attempting to secede might also lead to a deadly civil war.

16 posted on 08/20/2026 11:14:56 AM PDT by Angelino97
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To: laconic

And don’t forget the comeback in 1994-the Republicans took both the House and the Senate in no small part to Newt Gingrich’s Contract with American which was belittled and ridiculed by political pundits across the political spectrum.

As an aside, one political analyst, Ken Bode, the moderator for the PBS show Washington Week in Review predicted that the Republicans would have majorities in both the House and the Senate after the 1994 elections. He made that prediction the Friday before the elections. I believe he was about the only major pundit to make that forecast.


17 posted on 08/20/2026 11:24:11 AM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: Angelino97

Buy your FRT now, because you can be damn sure that the other side (who ever that may be) will.


18 posted on 08/20/2026 11:43:51 AM PDT by centermass_socrates (Keep it clean, keep it loaded, and keep it handy.)
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To: Angelino97
gerrymandering in the House, malapportionment in the Senate, the electoral college—have overwhelmingly benefited Republicans.

1) Gerrymandering has been favoring the Democrats forever
2) How can the Senate be malapportioned when it is apportioned 2 per state? If by malapportioned the author means the Senator is a different party than the legislature of a state, that favors Democrats
3) The EC has been hit or miss towards the Republicans. Maybe slightly favoring them, but hardly overwhelming

Counting illegals in the census for apportionment is more of a malapportionment than anything else he mentioned, and strangely enough, that favors the Democrats too. I am not suggesting we do not have problems, but I do not think the sky is falling yet

19 posted on 08/20/2026 11:54:58 AM PDT by not in the club
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To: not in the club

You make very good points; the Rs have won the majority of the national vote for the House several times but ended up in the minority. Also, the counting of 50 million illegals in the Census stole a good 50 seats from the Rs combined with the phony allocation of electoral votes based on population - by one estimate, Red states were robbed of at least 7 House seats by false population counts that favored Blue States and metro areas.I also don’t think a lot of people from Central and South America are overly fond of communists.


20 posted on 08/20/2026 12:00:37 PM PDT by laconic
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