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Posted on 08/20/2026 6:41:13 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
44.0% – Senator Tom Cotton (Republican) 47.4% – Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 3.0% – Jeff Wadlin (Libertarian)
(Excerpt) Read more at talkbusiness.net ...
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While there’s every chance that the 2026 overall GOP bloodbath in November will make the 2018 disaster look like nothing, there’s no way Cotton is losing in Arkansas and this poll by some unknown group means nothing.
If states like Arkansas really ARE in play this year then forget 2018.
Look at 1932 instead.
Just kidding — I hope.
Why do you think this year will be a GOP bloodbath?
Many of the polls have been radically off this cycle.
As always, remember that media polls are about influencing public opinion, not measuring it.
Is Cotton unpopular?
Other polls show something entirely different:
“A J.L. Partners poll released August 18, 2026, shows Cotton commanding a 16-point lead at 51% against Shoffner’s 35%.”
“Why do you think this year will be a GOP bloodbath?”
Same as our bloodbaths - too many Purists in the party. In this case they will sit out the election and hand Congress to the Democrats because a couple of women Republicans in the Senate wouldn’t support the SAVE Act. The Purists don’t seem to understand that Democrats are FAR WORSE than the other 48 Republicans Senators (and, for that matter, worse than even those women Republicans in the Senate). I guess it’s above their level of comprehension.
Oh well, get ready to join them on their “learning journey” regarding the Democrats, it’s going to be ‘fun’ watching them bitch next year! (while the country crumbles under their feet)
TB&P polls are notoriously tilted toward democrats Ignore.
Shoffner won’t hit the 40% titanium ceiling in Arkansas.
The New Axis of Evil;Democrats communists and Musl8ms uses polls as campaign weapons. They lie about everything. They hate God America us and Reality. Never vote for a Democrat a communist or a Muslim.
Since you asked.....
I’ve been told that no polls anywhere constitute evidence of anything so I guess it’s hard to say why. /s
Trump’s vast unpopularity, which helps drag all Republicans down (as if they need help) is a major factor. We’re told that Democrats are just as (or more) unpopular than Republicans. Which is false, though perhaps somebody can dig out some outlier poll which slightly says otherwise. The assertion is still false.
The ridiculous indecisive handling of the Iran situation.
The economy, which despite all attempts by some at painting a rosy picture, still is seen as a negative and you know very well who is blamed for that.
The usual “midterm factor” in which the party which holds the White House almost always loses seats in the House and Senate.
The meager motivation of GOP voters as compared to the massive motivation of anti-GOP voters (just like 2018). In 2018 Republicans did NOT simply stay home and let Democrats win. They showed up in record numbers for a midterm. Democrats showed up WAY MORE. They will again. They have been all year in primaries and special elections which are therefore deemed “unimportant” by the emotionally frail on our side. That data doesn’t mean *everything*, but only fools believe it means *nothing*.
And then there are the polls, which are of course 100% wrong, and mean nothing, and only November is important, and I’ll wait until all the votes are counted, and all that drivel.
The overall D+5 or greater advantage (and worsening by the day) in House races is going to hand control to Hakeem Homeboy and the radical socialists in January, though redistricting advantages will help offset about 8 seats’ worth of damage. Unlike what the old TV show says, “Eight Isn’t Enough”. Best case scenario right now is that Democrats only win by something like 220-215.
Senate seats are in play, whether the ostriches choose to admit it or not, in “solid red” states like Ohio, Alaska and Texas. Pickup opportunities are fast becoming ZERO for Republicans. Michigan is the only hope, and Ayatollah El-Sayed is favored to win.
Georgia WAS a hope — no chance there now. New Hampshire was a pipe dream — very little chance there.
These factors will extend to Governor races and state legislative races, potentially giving Democrats control in states where they are just short at the moment (PA, MI, AZ, WI) or enhancing control elsewhere. Guess what that means for 2028 gerrymandering? The idea that “Democrats have already gerrymandered to the max everywhere and have nothing left to gain” is 100% pure idiocy.
Wishful thinkers ignore all of the above at their own peril. But they do, because they can’t bear to face it.
“As always, remember that media polls are about influencing public opinion, not measuring it.”
And part of what they want to influence is DONATIONS. People aren’t going to throw their money away on a candidate known to be losing by 16 points. A rigged poll gets some attention and raises polling averages, perhaps enough to keep the campaign from drying up.
It’s so true. Everything depends on turnout.
The Republican/conservative voters are notorious for sitting out midterms.
Every time I compare the numbers from each state for a presidential year election vice a midterm, Republican votes are half of what they were in a presidential election vice midterm.
This pattern is not new (all below are GOP turnouts):
• 2016 → 2018: 60.1% → 50% (10 point drop, unusually small because 2018 was a high energy midterm)
• 2012 → 2014: 58.6% → 36.7% (22 point drop)
• 2008 → 2010: 61.6% → 41% (20.6 point drop)
When you convert those percentages into raw votes, many states — especially those with older, rural, or less habitually engaged GOP bases — see midterm Republican vote totals fall to 45–55% of their presidential numbers.
Sitting out this November for any reason is really gonna hurt.
Never mind, those voters per year were all voters, not just GOP voters. Still, you can see who is not voting, and they are the jackasses!
“As always, remember that media polls are about influencing public opinion, not measuring it.”
And opinions about a candidate’s viability influence DONATIONS. People tend not to throw their money away on a candidate losing by 16 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dem campaign was broke, and bought this poll to gull small donors.
Lots of Independants and I may as well for the first time just sit this election out...
I don’t buy this poll. I can’t imagine Arkansas voting Blue.
\We are in the silly season for polls.
The Democrats appear to be done with the performative Boomer "Resistance" figures and have come to openly embrace their inner commie selves. I look for the establishment to embrace much of their economic agenda, while trying to hold the line on some cultural issues they've been burned on time and again.
And while I don't think there is any chance of Cotton losing to this woman in November, the right appears to be getting fed up with both the neo-con faction of the GOP that appears more interested in Tel Aviv and Kyiv than things here at home (ex., Cotton), as well as the performative, low-IQ "owning the libs" schtick.
It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out
Yeah, that’s the fighting spirit we need!
Ignore Summer garbage polls.
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