Posted on 07/19/2026 8:56:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.
Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
More rain for the Hill Country, not good.
Geat to see you for another silly season. Good info, thanks!
Happily, we may not have that bad a season, but it’s always good to meet here again!
I am reminded that 1992 was a season with a big El Nino. It only takes one storm (Hurricane Andrew) to make it a nasty season.
Hoping all is well with you. And thank you again NautiNurse for yet another year of keeping the good people of FR informed. Blessings!
I’m just super thankful for the rain here in my little beach desert. But I should be careful what I ask for.
Arthur incoming after 1100 update. I’m guessing TS by 1700 update.
Thank you for your kind sentiments. All is good here, save the dozen fire ant bites obtained while weed-eating the yard late last week. Hoping all is well with you and yours too!
Indeed, the intermittent rains during the past several days have been a blessing.
Lots of heavy rain bands coming through Mexico Beach today.
Has Mexico Beach been rebuilt?
Mostly. It’s been impressive.
Bertha is the next named storm. Arthur was a super quick system, forming in the Bay of Campeche June 17, dissipating June 18. Flash floods in TX, while portions of Louisiana received 29” of rain.
Thanks for your local update. Tampa Bay continues to feel sporadic outer bands.
Thanks. Forgot about that.
Best case is Israel stays out of the war... that'll make Israel living in the region easier when peace comes.
We’re all here - nice to see you for another season NautiNurse - you’re a blessing. Great informaiton.
Got a whole house Generac - it’s passed the permitting process and will be installed first part of August. I’m hoping for the best for the next few weeks. Well, hoping for the best for all season, but you know what I mean...
Flood risk has prevented me from investing in same through the years.
Good memory - my back yard ends in a small salt water stream between two bays. The good news - - my house in technically in a C zone... last major hurricane floodings - my neighborhood and home were spared. I’ll still evacuate if we’re anywhere near a direct hit but I’ll be able to return sooner... and God forbid - if I get stuck here for any reason I’ll have power (At least until the generator floods.)
Provisions: Had to have a new survey done since the papers are here somewhere but I have no clue where... And had to get a permit. Sign papers etc etc That takes a while.
Generac said I would need a three foot pad to put the generator on - then later the permitting people called to say only a two foot pad was required (FEMA minimum) but I chose to stay with the three foot tall pad. Seems I should get a rider on my home insurance to cover the unit - and maybe the three foot pad will be safer and cheaper for insurance purposes. I’ll know soon. The installation department agreed - said going past the FEMA minimum was a good idea.
Then decided to have both propane tanks buried - it’s a one time expense and becomes one less thing to worry about a tree falling on. Now I’m getting bids on tree trimming etc... Turns out this was more complicated than I originally thought but people I know feel the hassle is worth it. We’ll see. I’ll let you know how it turns out after it’s in and done.
Again nice to see your posts during this season - always comforting.
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