Zelenskiy denies Russian capture of key eastern city Kostiantynivka

Ukraine still controls the strategically important eastern city of Kostiantynivka, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the General Staff said on Saturday, rejecting Russian claims that it has been captured.

Russia's military told President Vladimir Putin on Friday that its forces had taken control of Kostiantynivka, a target that Moscow has long sought in its advance through the Donetsk region.

"Of course, that is not true. It is just another Russian lie, an attempt to generate some kind of a news story," Zelenskiy said on X.

"If Kostiantynivka were under Russian control, then perhaps (Russian President Vladimir) Putin would have no problem meeting me there to find a diplomatic way to finally end this war," he added.

The General Staff also said Kostiantynivka remained under the control of Ukrainian forces.

"Military units and subunits of the 19th Army Corps of the Eastern Grouping continue to conduct defensive operations on designated lines within the town and on its approaches," it said in a statement.

Kostiantynivka is the southernmost of four key settlements that form a defensive line central to Ukraine's effort to hold the heavily industrialised Donetsk region.

Analysts say capturing the city would give Russian forces a foothold from which to push north along the defensive belt, now the main axis of their campaign.

He has some decent maps: https://www.youtube.com/@warmaps78

Croatia based.

Who knows if there is someone behind him pulling the strings.

(IMHO - what I think):

Ukraine lost this war after the failed counter offensive. That was their last realistic chance.

From that point on, it’s a war of attrition with Russian having the numbers.

Ukraine sells this war, hard. Plus you have our MSM strongly biased in Ukraine’s favor, mass censorship (Russia is heavily muted), Google ranking things in favor of a certain narrative (that includes YouTube), our social media is on board, the EU and their state run media is on board, NATO of course is on board... So you get flooded with a one sided pro-Ukraine message, but what you’re really getting today is a “chrome plated turd.”

The Russians are merely keeping the pressure on. Keep pushing just enough to where Ukraine cannot amass a large force with which they can launch a viable offense that can take and hold ground.

The FEBA between Ukraine and Russia is vast (1,200 Km or 745 miles). Russia is continually looking for a relatively weaker spot and then pushing there. Today here, tomorrow there sort of thing. Small advances that achieve two things:

1.) The longer the war ranges on, the worse position Ukraine is in.

2.) Deny Ukraine the ability to build up forces for a large scale offensive, example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive

Additional points regards this war:

3.) Russia knew this would be a “long war” early on (not what they wanted, but they realized that was going to happen), that this won’t be a 2014 repeat. They started a troop rotation schedule fairly early on (before Ukraine, but Ukraine is hard up and simply couldn’t do that out of manning issues). Russia put an economist in charge of the war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Belousov They immediately began ramping up key production needed for an extended campaign, BUT only partially mobilized the population and economy for war since doing that long term crushes the economy of a nation (~7.5% GDP on war).

4.) Russia “did” take a beating in the initial opening of this war. Years of training, planning, our tech in mass, intel, was effective for the Ukraine. I think the Russians achieved most of their goals despite taking heavy losses initially: Seize the Eastern ethnic Russian areas, block NATO accession. That said, they are keeping the pressure on, but risk and casualty averse today.

Ukraine cannot realistically protect a frontage that large (745 miles). But Russia has a hard time creating the needed concentration along the FEBA without being detected or even being blasted while staging. In today’s world, with ground based sensors, space based sensors, drones, SIGNIT, both the performance and proliferation of these capabilities, the ability to disseminate information quickly, make hiding and building up a large force difficult.

I don’t think a “Battle of the Bulge” type scenario where we were caught off guard by a large German force is realistic today. Plus, I think the modern ATGM and it’s effectiveness, combined with drones, have basically thrown “modern warfare” back to the end of the Civil war or WWI, into trenches. The armored and mechanized force trying to conduct “maneuver warfare” gets mauled against a modern threat armed with these weapon systems. That is just as true for the Russians, as it is for the Ukrainians, but also us. Our M1 and Bradley, the German Leo, British Challenger, didn’t do all that great.

So it’s just a slow grid where Russia is creeping forward. Which of course our non-propagandist MSM will brief as failure (it’s all just how you spin it).

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