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Posted on 07/04/2026 8:24:22 AM PDT by libstripper
The Iranian regime’s oligarchic clans are at war with each other – and this conflict may soon spiral beyond control.
This fight is not over ideology or the future direction of the Islamic Republic: all the oligarchic clans are Islamist; some wear turbans, others wear military uniforms, and some wear suits.
In other words, they all subscribe to the core tenets of Shia Islamism in Iran: the forceful imposition of Sharia law domestically, support for the so-called Axis of Resistance militia network, anti-Americanism, and the goal of eradicating the Israel (driven by innate anti-Semitism).
But they are competing to protect and advance their power and economic interests amid the vacuum that emerged after the elimination of Ali Khamenei, the former supreme leader, who had operated as the godfather of these clans.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
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"Saeid Golkar is senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran and UC Foundation Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga"
Certainly worth following. They appear to be knowledgable people who know what they're writing about.
Well hurry up and get it wrapped up and mummified.
I would be so sad if that happened. :-) :-) :-)
Patiently waiting-not counting on it.
Until huge numbers of Iranians take to the streets, I won’t believe any of this.
“But they are competing to protect and advance their power and economic interests amid the vacuum that emerged after the elimination of Ali Khamenei,...”
Gee, I wonder if causing this was why we took him out...
Drop Islam, free yourself from the shackles!
Lucy...
You Little Scoundrel!
I never heard it until about March 1; where’d you pick up your information?
The real issue now is ousting the IRGC and Basij without a major civil war and massive humanitarian crisis.
And then dealing with the economic and food crisis in Iran's population centers when the Islamic State collapses.
The reality is that the mullahs and their IRGC goons are in firm control. They have used the cease fires to rearm and solidify the regime. They have aquired advanced drones which have defacto given them control of the strait of Hormus. The US military, despite their obervations in the Ukraine war, does not have a cost effective way to counter these drones. An Iranian drone was able to collide and down an Apache helicopter on a night mission. Somewhere Chinese engineers are celebrating.
The best opportunity to overthrow the mullah regime was after the first two weeks of intensive bombing. The Iranian Kurds were willing then to lead an armed rebellion against the tottering mullahs. It was likely they would have been joined by the suppressed urban protesters. It did not happen because Trump was not willing to antagonize the Turks. It was the single biggest blunder of his Presidency. Now it is pathetic watching him almost desperately trying to sign a humiliating “deal” with these deranged murderers.
When your whole leadership including and especially your top theocratic leader are easily whacked, your economy is in a shambles, you’ve lost control of your airspace, navy and so on, you’ve may wish to consider exactly how Akhbar your bastard Allah is!?!?!
I’ve been patiently, too, but I am counting on it. The regime has done an excellent job of a news blackout. But what we do know for sure is that hyperinflation still rages. Mass layoffs and business closures are even confirmed by the regime. Unpaid troops. Water shortage and extremely unhealthy air quality in Teheran continue. All of these destabilizing, but in the aggregate it’s a powder keg. Can they regime overcome these? Maybe, but I’d put my money on “no.”
Tagline.
The problem is the Iranians consider survival as a form of victory, a view which is reinforced by us wanting to negotiate a deal with them.
“Open conflict could be next”
Maybe, maybe not. On this Independence Day, I prefer to be an optimist, a cheerful one, at that.
“Always Look on the Bright Side of Life”
A lot of moving parts there, none less disputed than the thesis put forward by these authors. Trump holds all the cards in the discussion, nobody does in the outcome. He’s playing his cards one at a time.
Faction leader killed
Evidence planted to point to competing faction
Cant wait for the movie
Does any regime really “fracture” when they can simply eliminate the opposition?
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