Traders say Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt will advance to runoff in high-profile L.A. mayoral race

MSN ^ | 6/2 | David Giangiulio

[nickcarraway]

Los Angeles voters are heading to the polls Tuesday to elect their next mayor, a race that has put all eyes on the nation's second-largest city.

But if no one reaches more than 50% of the vote after all the ballots are counted, the top-two vote getters will head to a November runoff. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and insurgent former reality TV star Spencer Pratt are most likely to advance to the second round.

Traders are fairly certain Bass will make it to the second round, giving her 93% odds. Bass has consistently led in public polls of the race, though has been well short of the 50% mark for an outright win in the first round. Pratt has about a three-in-four chance of advancing, according to traders.

City Councilmember Nithya Raman is also challenging the incumbent. Raman has a 28% chance of advancing to the second round.

Los Angeles mayoral elections are nonpartisan, though Pratt is a registered Republican, while Raman and Bass are Democrats.

Traders once viewed Raman as the favorite to win the mayor's office, with nearly a 60% chance of victory at one point, though her odds collapsed on Kalshi after a May debate. Her chances of winning the whole race are now at just 11%.

The fall was so notable that Pratt has made several comments about it on the campaign trail. "She went from 64% on Kalshi, to 8%," he said on Bill Maher's "Club Random" podcast. "So she got bombed, she's done."

Pratt, though, only has a 25% chance of winning the mayor's office. Traders place 65% odds that Bass is re-elected.

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TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: california; davidgiangiulio; gambling; karenbass; losangeles; nithyaraman; spencerpratt

[ChildOfThe60s]

Pratt could be polling at 80% and he would still get creamed after the votes were counted. This is LA

[Texas Eagle]

..... incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and insurgent former reality TV star Spencer Pratt...

Castro protege Mayor Karen Bass and insurgent former reality TV star Spencer Pratt...

There. Fixed it <>

[hanamizu]

Pratt could be polling at 80% and he would still get creamed after the votes were counted. This is LA

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This is because the way California counts votes is way too nuanced for knuckle-dragging people in other states. Rather than holding an election and announcing the results that evening or early the next morning, California finds it more practical and ‘democratic’ to take weeks to count the votes. This insures that democrats win, which is what Our Democracy™ is all about.

[MplsSteve]

Like many Freepers, I’ve seen many of Pratt’s TV ads. They are both funny AND accurate.

I’d like to see other campaigns adopt his advertising style.

[FlingWingFlyer]

Is that what they are calling Messican illegal aliens in California these days? Traders?

[Sarah Barracuda]

NewSCUM already said he would make sure that Bass and a Dem would win, no way does he want the fraud and the fact that he and Bass co conspired to burn down the Palisades for a land grab

[Libloather]

[j.havenfarm]

That’s way too facile. The margin of cheat maxes out around 5%. He will be in the general. I think the pundits are underestimating what’s going on. I give him a solid 40% chance of winning the general

[Fledermaus]

As long as Bass gets less than 50% he’s in the runoff.

[Fungi]

Thanks for the optimism.

[oldbill]

A solid 40% chance of winning isa solid 60% chance of losing.

[ChildOfThe60s]

Thanks for the optimism.

You are welcome for the realism. I think this campaign has accomplished a lot in terms of messaging but to be unrealistic and believe he has a chance to get elected in the humongously corrupt atmosphere in which he is forced to function is delusional. Which in my mind is not productive.

When I make predictions like this it should be understood that I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong. I would prostate myself and admit my errors in the prediction should that happen.

[Veto!]

.......................’no way does he want the fraud and the fact that he and Bass co conspired to burn down the Palisades for a land grab’

Should be a campaign slogan for Republican candidates.
And BTW, my friend’s daughter lives there. Fire burned house next to hers and stopped. Friend is a very religious guy, asked all of us to pray for her.

[Sarah Barracuda]

I went on Zillow two days ago and typed in Pacific Palisades just to see what is currently for sale..I did see a few houses for sale but 90 percent of what is on the market in the Palisades is LAND, they have given up trying to even rebuild, they are just selling their land to the highest bidder, it has to be one of the most saddest things Ive EVER seen..with regulations and everything else, they have just given up, its what Bass and Newsom wanted, to rebuild the Palisades in their vision, full of Low income housing so they can say they fixed the housing crisis in this city

[gibsonguy]

Yep.

[canuck_conservative]

Karen Bass really deserves to be put out to pasture, she is clueless

[Apparatchik]

Aw - I was hoping to see more of the noodle lady. She’s bat crap crazy, but she’s cute and swarthy. Dusky, even.

[Zathras]

Yep!
The GOP is finally learning how to fight back but they have not seen the value of humor yet.

[spacejunkie2001]

you have a 50/50 shot at being pessimistic to optimistic. Negative isn’t exclusive to “Real”. Only negative people think that.