Posted on 05/30/2026 4:34:12 PM PDT by Apparatchik
Russia's war on Ukraine is devouring its finances. War spending now totals 16.8 trillion roubles ($238 billion) — nearly 40% of the entire 2026 budget — and Putin's own finance minister, Anton Siluanov, has privately warned of a possible economic collapse, urging deep cuts to avert it.
-The deficit is the largest since the 2022 invasion, growth has flatlined at 0.4%, and analysts say Moscow is faking its books.
According to a 30 May report in the Financial Times, Russian government spending on the war in Ukraine is on track to exceed budget allocations by about 2 trillion Russian roubles (US$ 28bn) this year.
These figures come from an official letter shown to the FT by a senior Russian minister. If the figures are accurate, there will be increasing pressure put on the budget due to what has been described as a “ballooning” deficit.
This estimate for 2026, plus projections for the out years, is putting a spotlight on a case of runaway, almost uncontrollable spending – all due to the increasing costs of sustaining the war effort.
This year, the allocation for the war effort totals 16.8 trillion roubles (US$238 billion), accounting for almost 40 percent of this year’s budget.
This entire sum was allocated to defense and security outlays in 2026, which is what prompted the contents of the letter. The correspondence came from Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov in February 2026. His strong recommendation was for the cabinet to freeze close to 2.9 trillion roubles (US $40.8bn) in non-defense or war-related spending this year as a means of staving off a serious economic problem.
Siluanov also warned that overspending on the conflict in 2026 could amount to as much as 4 trillion roubles by the end of this year, culminating in what he calls a “negative scenario”.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
we have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down
40 percent of the budget is military in Russia wow Lindsey Graham’s fantasy for America has come true...in Russia
Paying 700,000 men $40,000/year each costs $28 billion a year.
The ISW website indicates Ukrainians are able to penetrate Russian defensive lines for some reason.
Putin / Russia are also losing militarily in several parts of Africa.
Venezuela and Iran had the Russian military equipment. That hasn’t worked so well.
In Africa, Al-Queda has beaten back the Russian Africa Corps* in Mali and nearby areas.
*The Russian Africa Corps used to have a different name - The Wagner Group. The opponents of Russia do not care if you change the name.
Up until a year (or so ago) Russia had been paying for the war out of their SAVINGS. They were able to pay cash for years of war. Currently they have almost no debt, I think it's less than 20% of their income.
Meanwhile the US has 7 times the debt of our annual income and we are on the brink of financial collapse as we can't pay for the INTEREST on the debt (which is now close to 20% of our annual income).
Putin's nightmare? Ha. America's nightmare is that NOBDOY is paying attention to the debt. And that includes Trump. WE can't afford the war in Iran or anywhere.
So were we. And we weren’t even fighting there. lol
Another so called expert predicting Putin is dying...Russia is failing...Ukraine is winning
“Putin’s nightmare keeps getting worse: Russia is now spending 40% of its entire budget on the war in Ukraine”
this is EXACTLY what caused the collapse of the Soviet Union in the first place: the Soviets bankrupted their empire trying [unsuccessfully] to keep up with USA military power ...
Déjà vu all over again ...
I am FOR Russia wasting its money on this war
But the US should not spend money on this war
—> These figures come from an official letter shown to the FT by a senior Russian minister. If the figures are accurate…
Anonymous, deep state narrative article.
And wishful zeeper posting.
🖐️
Our government representatives are letting the debt grow without any concern and stopping efforts to control the debt. I understand if all the fraud in government programs were stopped they could balance the budget. I trust they tell their children and grandchildren that they are leaving them a debt which may collapse the country.
By comparison, if the U.S. were running nearly debt free and nearly a balanced budget like Russia is, then Pres. Trump’s $1.5 trillion proposed defense budget would be 29% of our $5.2 trillion tax revenue. It’s true that our balanced budget 29% is less than Russia’s 40%, but we aren’t at war (yet). I’d much rather the U.S. have Russia’s budget situation that the author is whining about than the debt crisis we are presently in.
Dude … stop spewing facts…. Putin was outta moves in 2023…. Per the legendary Gen Patraeus. Putin also has died of cancer 9 times. And anyday now Ukraine whos average solider is 49 and begging for weapon will take Moscow soon.
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. ...
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/author/reuben-johnson/
... He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor's degree from DePauw University and a master's degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Other recent articles:
5/30: Putin Is Facing the Unthinkable: Russia Could Lose the Ukraine War
5/29: ‘I’d Sell My Soul for the JAS-39’: Ukraine Just Secured a Squadron of Sweden’s Gripen Fighters to Fight Putin
Summary and Key Points: Ukraine has announced it will acquire 20 new-build Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F fighters from Sweden, financed by a €2.5 billion...
5/28: Putin Crossed the Line: Russian Drones Slammed Into NATO Member Nation in Multiple Incidents
Summary and Key Points: A Russian attack drone crashed into a 10-story apartment
5/28: The Numbers Are Painful for Putin: Russia’s Battlefield Dead in Ukraine War Looks Like Nearly 500,000
According to the United Kingdom’s Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), the nation’s intelligence, cyber, and security agency, nearly half a million Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine that began in February 2022. The announcement was made by Anne Keast-Butler, who runs the agency, on 27 May.
5/27: Putin Is Terrified He Could Be Assassinated over Ukraine War and Will Now Do Anything To Stop It
5/26: Catastrophe Is Coming for Putin As the Ukraine War Looks Now Like Disastrous Defeat for Russia
5/26: Russia Has No Chance of Winning the Ukraine War
5/23: Russia Is Losing 30,000 Soldiers A Month in Ukraine And Gaining Less Than 3 Square Kilometers A Day
Anti-Russia propaganda like that will only work on the simpleminded.
Is Russia already so dee into Ukraine that 3 sq km is a significant amount of advance? Will Russia achieve its territorial goals before their loss rate is not replaceable or affordable?
This clownish propaganda fails to mention how much extra Russia is earning due to higher oil prices resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran.
I completely understand the limitations of AI Chatbots, but do find conversations with them about foreign affairs to be interesting and sometimes revealing.
Here is part of my latest conversation with Gemini 3.5,
“The title of the article is “Putin’s nightmare keeps getting worse: Russia is now spending 40% of its entire budget on the war in Ukraine” .... Do you believe that Putin feels that this situation is a nightmare for him?
No, it is highly unlikely that Vladimir Putin views this situation as a personal “nightmare.”
The phrase “Putin’s nightmare” is a classic piece of Western journalistic framing designed to attract clicks. It superimposes a Western, market-driven logic onto an autocratic ruler who operates on an entirely different set of incentives and historical timelines.
While Western analysts look at a 40% budget drain, a 5.9 trillion rouble deficit, and soaring inflation as a catastrophic failure, Putin almost certainly views these realities as the necessary, expected costs of a grand historical mission.
1. The Disconnect in Timeline and Scope
Western political and economic systems are built on short horizons—four-year election cycles, quarterly corporate earnings, and immediate consumer satisfaction. In that framework, ruining your country’s economy for a war of attrition is a nightmare.
Putin, however, views his legacy through a century-scale historical lens.
He explicitly compares himself to Peter the Great, seeing his role as the “gatherer of Russian lands.”
To a leader obsessed with reversing the collapse of the Soviet Union and halting NATO expansion, losing a few percentage points of GDP or facing 15% inflation is a minor, short-term tactical friction.
In his worldview, securing territorial control over the Donbas and permanently subjugating Ukraine is worth almost any economic price.
2. A Nightmare for the Russian People, Not the Kremlin
We have to separate the stability of the Russian state from the personal comfort and power of Vladimir Putin. The current situation is undoubtedly a nightmare for:
The Russian civilian population, who are watching their purchasing power erode, their standard of living drop, and their access to global goods vanish.
The technocrats in the Finance Ministry, like Anton Siluanov, who are playing a desperate game of fiscal musical chairs to keep the economy from buckling.
But for Putin personally, his grip on power has arguably never been more insulated. The war has allowed him to fully transition Russia from a hybrid autocracy into a total command state. He has used wartime emergency powers to:
Eradicate the remaining political opposition.
Lock down the domestic internet and media space.
Force the remaining Russian oligarchs to choose between absolute loyalty to the Kremlin or losing their assets entirely.
He is not losing sleep over a budget deficit because the deficit hasn’t cost him an ounce of political control.
3. The Autocratic Autopilot
Furthermore, a command economy spending 40% of its budget on defense actually creates a distorted sense of stability for a dictator. The massive injection of state cash into military manufacturing facilities across Russia’s regional heartlands has actually raised wages for working-class factory laborers and the families of soldiers receiving high combat payouts.
While this is an inflationary disaster waiting to explode in the long term, in the short term, it keeps the specific segments of the population Putin relies on for passive support relatively quiet.
Summary
The article’s title implies that Putin is trapped in an unwanted crisis. The reality is far more dangerous: this is a crisis of his own making, and he is entirely comfortable living in it. He has successfully restructured the entire Russian state to survive under these exact high-pressure conditions. Unless the economic friction reaches a point where it physically prevents him from manufacturing weapons or paying his security apparatus, he will view the current fiscal strain not as a nightmare, but as the price of admission for rewriting global history.
Here is a summary of the article with other questions asked...
https://gemini.google.com/share/ec1a41122e2a
Ukraine ping
They’re overdoing the triumphalism. 10% of GDP just isn’t that big a deal. Germany peaked at 70%. The US did 40%. Putin’s minimalist war mobilization - of men and material - is in part why the war isn’t done, in Russia’s favor. He is running the war like an accountant.
In 1938, before Germany embarked on its great crusade to kill the world and resettle it with Germans, its defense spending was 17% of GDP. In Hitler’s first year, 1934, it hit 10%. Stockpiles from a major prewar buildup were why Germany seemed to have the best tech in seemingly unlimited numbers.
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