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Posted on 05/29/2026 5:27:11 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
When is a ceasefire not a ceasefire? When the person declaring it is Donald Trump. Opinions differ about the wisdom of the President’s activities with respect to Iran. Some observers tell us he is playing four-dimensional chess. Some say it more like checkers with no kings.
What, after all, is he up to? The commentariat proffers several conflicting narratives. The one common thread is the certainty with which these opinions are uttered. Trump is an idiot. Trump is a genius. For those who say that he has thrown in the towel – that Iran has “won” – I’d offer two observations.
First, it is an odd sort of winning a war when your adversary eliminates your navy, air force, most of your air defense capability, large swaths of your stock of missiles and drones along with the industrial capacity to produce them, not to mention two or three levels of your top leadership, all within a matter of days.
Second, anyone who has pondered President Trump’s adventures in foreign policy knows that two things are true of him. He is a constant advocate for peace. He is also waspish when crossed. Just ask Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian terror-lord whom Trump vaporized in a drone attack during his first term. Cast your mind back to last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer, when a fleet of B-2s, supported by a passel of Tomahawk cruise missiles, buried Iran’s three major nuclear sites. Remember what happened to Nicolás Maduro in January? And then, of course, there is the fury of Operation Epic Fury.
Trump held Iran’s head underwater for six weeks. He pulled it up and let it sputter while he offered the mullahs an off-ramp. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio, responding to the press, is right. “The idea that somehow this President, given everything he’s...
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.com ...
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Well, that was short. No subscription.
“Iran’s oil production in 2024 was about 4.63 million b/d”
“Iran’s oil consumption in 2024 was calculated to be 1,953,251 barrels per day b/d”
Copilot [Worldometer]
The Iranian government is still getting oil revenue from nearly half its normal oil production. If Iran charges market prices for oil domestically, Iran’s wholesale oil revenue would be down about 30%. Iran’s taxes and profits on domestic retail fuel sales would be unchanged or increased.
The idea that Iran will be forced to deal because its oil industry will suffer greatly from a blockade is absurd.
They sell their oil to their own people?
If Iran charges market prices for oil domestically,
Do they?
Iran’s taxes and profits on domestic retail fuel sales would be unchanged or increased.
Are you assuming they earn profits on domestic fuel sales?
Thank you.
“a growing backlog of aging tonnage that is expected to head for the breaking yards in the coming years. Included in the backlog are hundreds of tankers operating in the so-called dark fleet”
https://shipbreakingplatform.org/platform-publishes-list-2025/
There are hundreds of tankers of little value available for Strait transit use. These tankers might proceed to India, which is a short trip away. The oil can be shipped on from India as Russian oil has been.
The world uses about 70 million barrels of oil a day. At a $40 premium to pre-war pricing, that means it costs the world about $2.8 billion a day to allow Iran to block the Strait.
Iran may be able to sink a few tankers before the US Navy eliminates foolhardy Iranian boaters, but the loss of say $500 million of old tankers and the oil put in them is tiny compared to $2.8 billion/day, $20 billion/week, and $85 billion/month.
Congress could authorize Trump to use $1 billion to buy tankers stranded in the Gulf, fill them with crude, and have US Navy sailors run them through the Strait (or send them through by remote control or autopilot). A helicopter could be on each tanker in transit in case the crew needs to come off.
The tanker insurance market isn’t functioning for the Gulf. Bypass it!
Congress could authorize Trump to have another 60 days if:
1. any US vessel is attacked while passing through the international waters of the Persian Gulf or the waters of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Oman,
2. an Iranian vessel, missile or torpedo enters the waters or airspace claimed by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Oman within four miles of a US vessel,
3. an Iranian vessel fails to promptly and harmlessly sail to Iranian coastal waters when signaled by US military flare.
The US tankers are unlikely to be attacked. Does anybody here think Iranian thugs want Trump to have another 60 days to whack them?
I’m done with posts that require subscriptions to read. Jim should be too.
It is a catastrophically assymetrical war. Iran can keep the strait closed at its liesure while the world economy fractures. All they have to do to not lose is lob the occasional missile at a ship from their mountain fortresses and remain ensconced there. Iran is 2.5 times the size of both Texas and Afghanistan, and is 53% mountain terrain. The Pentagon told Trump a conflict had a 93% probability of failure, but he did it anyway.
The Iranian government is still getting oil revenue from nearly half its normal oil production.
“They sell their oil to their own people?”
Iranian cars need gas too. Governments need money worldwide.
****
Few products and services are free:
“General admission to the Obama Presidential Center Museum runs $30 for adults (ages 12+) and $23 for children 3–11, with Illinois residents paying $26 and $15 respectively; children under 2 enter free”
“Museum opens to the public June 19, 2026”
via Copilot
****
If Iran charges market prices for oil domestically,
“Do they?”
I don’t know, but if they don’t, the IRGC would be able to get more revenue by raising the prices to market rates.
Okay, it is over now right? Right?
Again, not seeing it. Over 4 a gallon here.
Sink means back to mid 2.00 range.
The Conditioning ♠️ Card, won’t cut it.
Trump has said it's over more than 38 times now, so it must be.
Domestic consumption is supplied through several primary mechanisms:
Subsidized Gasoline: Iranians pay heavily discounted prices for fuel at the pump using a state-issued "smart card." The government provides a monthly quota of fuel at a lower subsidized rate, with any additional usage charged at a higher, though still regulated, price.
Natural Gas & Heating: The vast majority of Iranian households are connected to a nationwide pipeline grid. The government provides natural gas for heating and cooking at highly subsidized, low rates to protect citizens from volatile global energy markets.
Domestic Refineries: Iran processes a significant portion of its crude oil (over 2.5 million barrels per day) through its own network of domestic refineries. These facilities produce the refined fuels (like petrol, diesel, and kerosene) required to sustain daily life and transportation within the country.
While citizens benefit from these low domestic prices, the heavy subsidies place a significant financial strain on the Iranian state budget.
AI thinks they might be losing money on domestic sales.
And/or splattered with data eating advertising. ✖️☢️
Sorry ya LOST.
😄
Keep trying though. GOOP Goomer.
You can add article.is to the beginning of the url to read the entire article.
Read it here.
https://archive.is/spectator.com/article/trump-has-iran-over-a-barrel/?edition=us&rcp=true
“Iran can keep the strait closed at its leisure while the world economy fractures. All they have to do to not lose is lob the occasional missile at a ship from their mountain fortresses and remain ensconced there.”
If the world’s oil consumers are overpaying $85 billion/month, the loss of even dozens of new $100 million tankers each with $100 million of oil in it is comparatively small - $4.8 billion (24 tankers) to $9.6 billion (48 tankers).
One can prevent missiles from hitting by putting 2,000 pound bombs in boats and sending them through the Gulf by remote control to the north of a tanker in transit.
One could alternately sail an old ship in parallel north of the tanker.
.
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