Falling Birth Rates Are a Mystery

Wall Street Journal ^ | 5/20/26 | Louise Perry

[EnderWiggin1970]

When I first encountered the data on falling fertility rates, I was confident that I could explain them. The problem, surely, was that other people had failed to embrace my preferred political program. As both a conservative and a mother, I assumed that if we all embraced a culture that was more pro-family—and particularly pro-motherhood—then birth rates would shoot up. It all aligned perfectly with my ideological commitments. How neat.

I’ve since realized that this is how most people respond to this issue because the data on fertility rates tend to function as a Rorschach test. Conservatives blame the collapse of marriage rates and the rise of feminism. Progressives blame a lack of affordable child care and fathers failing to do enough housework. Housing advocates blame property prices. Environmentalists blame the climate crisis. Everyone has an explanation that supports a pre-existing political agenda.

Meanwhile, the apolitical people I speak to in the real world always offer one of two explanations for why they personally haven’t had children, or don’t intend to have any more: either children are too expensive, or they haven’t yet found the right spouse.

There are serious problems with all of these explanations.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: birthrate; culture; depopulation; tfr

[EnderWiggin1970]

On the whole a good article on the subject, though I think she misrepresents the example of Iran. Iran has a Western-oriented, secular society ruled by hardline Islamists. It is not a Islamist society as she portrays it.

On the flip side I was intrigued by the finding that Britain went below replacement rate in the 1930's. This suggests that if people don't want children they will avoid having them even without contraceptives/abortion. The examples of Malta and Poland today further illustrate this point.

[MarlonRando]

sperm counts have dropped 50 to 60% from 1950. That’s insane. If we keep going on that course, there won’t be anybody left in a little while.

[rktman]

So, Pete bootyplug CAN’T have a baby afterall?

[systemjim]

I imagine that if aborted babies are figured into the equation, the mystery of the falling birth rates would make perfect sense.

[fwdude]

So, Pete bootyplug CAN’T have a baby afterall?

It's such a mystery to him. AFter all, he IS "married." Don't "Married" people have kids?

[fwdude]

Unironically, this tracks with falling marriage rates.

[alternatives?]

Testosterone levels have also been declining.

[dfwgator]

So, Pete bootyplug CAN’T have a baby afterall?

[Tell It Right]

On the flip side I was intrigued by the finding that Britain went below replacement rate in the 1930's. This suggests that if people don't want children they will avoid having them even without contraceptives/abortion.

We had the same thing happen in the U.S. Everyone knows that the Baby Boom generation happened because few babies were born during WW2 while the young men were away fighting the war. Few people remember that birth rates had already declined before that during the Great Depression because they couldn't afford to raise babies even before the young men went to war. Thus, the baby boom generation wasn't just making up for the few years of WW2, but also the years of the Great Depression.

Exceptions are like my father's family. Both of my parents are part of the silent generation (born during either the depression or WW2). My mother is an example of the suburbs -- she was the only one in her family born in that era because in the suburbs they were suffering during the depression. However, my father, raised on a farm where they were self-reliant even during the depression, was one of many kids born in his family during the depression.

[ryderann]

Among all the other problems with the covid vax, didn’t it also mess up fertility?

[airplaneguy]

one can only hope.

[Flaming Conservative]

What’s the mystery? Having children is a huge responsibility which requires setting aside one’s own wants for the needs of the child. Our self centered young people can’t be bothered.

[airplaneguy]

not always.

[rktman]

😂😂😂😂😂😂

[Frank Drebin]

[ComputerGuy]

I’ve since realized that this is how most people respond to this issue because the data on fertility rates tend to function as a Rorschach test

What you see is what you want to see.

[Organic Panic]

“Progressives blame a lack of affordable child care”

Have a baby. Drop baby at taxpayer funded indoctrination daycares, so mom can go to work, to pay taxes, so the baby can be taken care of someone else at a taxpayer funded daycare. Rinse and repeat.

[airplaneguy]

exactly. Thing about all the problems that could have been avoided if boomers and gen xers stopped spawning.

[RFEngineer]

I submit that out-of-control socialism, and the high government debt/excessive taxation/inflation that is driven by Western-style socialism is the reason for a lower fertility rate.

Immigrants granted free everything including healthcare, freedom from taxation, living expenses, have high fertility rates.

Do you really need to wonder why someone trying to pay their own way in socialist countries (and the US is a socialist country) decides not to have or have as many children?

[stanne]

It’s birth control. It has obvious and also wide, long term consequences

It is not a mystery. Pope Paul VI predicted this in his encyclical study in 1966.