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Here’s what the stock market might have gotten wrong about the Iran war
The Washington Post via Yahoo ^ | April 18th, 2026 | Evan Halper

Posted on 04/18/2026 11:26:12 AM PDT by Mariner

As stocks soared this week and oil prices dropped amid an apparent cooling of tensions between the United States and Iran, it may have left the impression that the energy shock that rattled the world would quickly fade, along with the risk of sending the global economy into recession.

The optimism may have been short-lived. On Saturday, Iran’s military announced it would reimpose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, throwing the critical waterway’s status into doubt.

The uncertainty highlights that beneath that surface, a starkly different reality is unfolding. It is defined by disrupted supply lines and damaged infrastructure, sparking increased concern among the people who produce, transport and depend on energy.

“The people closest to the industry are far more concerned about these disruptions and recognize the length of time it will take for things to return to normal - if they ever do,” said Gerry Morton, oil and gas co-chair at the law firm Baker Botts. “The further away you get from actually being involved in producing oil, the less you seem to be concerned about the physical reality and problems that are there.”

(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: bakerbotts; cheeringforiran; declaringdefeat; demagogicparty; districtofcolumbia; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; evanhalper; jeffbezos; leftistsource; mediawingofthednc; panicporn; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; washingtoncompost; washingtonpost
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The author gets this one right.

There is no good reason for Chevron and Exxon to be down over 15% in the last two trading days...while the S&P 500 sets a new record.

The markets are completely disconnected from reality.

And to me, that means there's nothing but BS driving them.

1 posted on 04/18/2026 11:26:12 AM PDT by Mariner
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To: Mariner

“We have to dance while the music lasts and hope you are near the exit door when it stops,” he said. “I am in that exact situation, despite talking to people in the background who know something is going to break.”


2 posted on 04/18/2026 11:27:54 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

I predict at least 3 posters will dismiss this article due to its sourcing, and will do so derisively.


3 posted on 04/18/2026 11:29:02 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

Check


4 posted on 04/18/2026 11:34:48 AM PDT by Vaduz (NEVER TRUST A DEMOCRAT)
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To: Mariner

The Washington Post is an irrelevant source.


5 posted on 04/18/2026 11:37:45 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The quickest and easiest way to untold riches is to be elected to national office.)
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To: Mariner
It's not the posters' fault if WaPo is traditionally a Leftist hot steaming garbage pile of a source.

And BTW, everyone knows that the Stock Market is not always right in it's predictions and is subject to human nature as well as algorithms that amplify human nature. WaPo isn't breaking any new ground there.

What we do know is that the market likes normalcy and hates uncertainty. Run with that if you dare.
6 posted on 04/18/2026 11:43:07 AM PDT by Antoninus (Republicans are all honorable men.)
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To: Mariner

Wapo BS. Number 1.


7 posted on 04/18/2026 11:43:37 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Lazamataz

The Washington Post is an irrelevant source. Agree makes three.


8 posted on 04/18/2026 11:44:08 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Mariner

You have TDS so bad that you are pushing the Washington Compost’s propaganda. Sad.

The reason the US stock market is booming is because the disruption of oil from the Straight of Hormuz has destabilized the countries in Europe and south east Asia that are dependent on that passage. These countries are dependent on OTHER countries good will and fragile supply chains to ship them oil and gas which makes them INHERENTLY UNSTABLE and POOR investments. The reason some US oil majors are having stock declines is because America is becoming flooded with oil and the markets are betting that oil is going to be much cheaper here in the future.


9 posted on 04/18/2026 11:45:03 AM PDT by wildcard_redneck ( Neocons in love with the Ukraine War hate how long the Iran War is taking..........)
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To: Mariner

That is true of any thread. So what.


10 posted on 04/18/2026 11:46:25 AM PDT by Fungi
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To: wildcard_redneck

“You have TDS so bad that you are pushing the Washington Compost’s propaganda.”

Proving once again you’re as dumb as a post.


11 posted on 04/18/2026 11:51:45 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner
The optimism may have been short-lived. On Saturday, Iran’s military announced it would reimpose restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz

"What the stock market might have gotten wrong" is believing that the west is dealing with rational actors in Iran.

As I've posted before, you can't negotiate with people who need an apocalypse to start their end days return of their 12 Imam.

The political faction makes a diplomatic gain, and then IRGC has to undermine it in a show of control.

This pattern will repeat until the IRGC is defeated. The diplomats have no control over it. That's what the stock market can't anticipate; the willful undermining of negotiated peace by the faction that wants global chaos.

-PJ

12 posted on 04/18/2026 11:57:50 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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To: Mariner

You left out the rest of my comment because you are too stupid to refute it because you didn’t understand it. The reason the US stock market is booming is because the disruption of oil from the Straight of Hormuz has destabilized the countries in Europe and south east Asia that are dependent on that passage. These countries are dependent on OTHER countries good will and fragile supply chains to ship them oil and gas which makes them INHERENTLY UNSTABLE and POOR investments. The reason some US oil majors are having stock declines is because America is becoming flooded with oil and the markets are betting that oil is going to be much cheaper here in the future.

Moron.


13 posted on 04/18/2026 12:01:46 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck ( Neocons in love with the Ukraine War hate how long the Iran War is taking..........)
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To: Mariner

It was another Trump weekend pump and dump. Big splashy dishonest positive announcement before market close. Truth comes out over the weekend. Monday morning he is insider buddies that properly positioned themselves Friday afternoon make a killing. Tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. He’s done this almost every weekend since the war began..

It’s a big financial camp for the right people. The rest of us just to get to buy gasoline between four and five dollars and take 22 bucks a pound for steak.


14 posted on 04/18/2026 12:17:52 PM PDT by DesertRhino (When men on the chessboard, get up and tell you where to go…)
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To: wildcard_redneck

“The reason some US oil majors are having stock declines is because America is becoming flooded with oil and the markets are betting that oil is going to be much cheaper here in the future.”

Who’s the moron?

Oil is priced on a global basis, with prices throughout Europe, Asia and the Americas being roughly equivalent.

It’s an energy PRICING shock in the near term with prices of delivered oil hovering at $140bbl.

The futures markets are reacting to BS stories. Thinking production/supply to be quickly restored. Nobody in the oil business subscribes to that fantasy.

The mid term impacts have yet to arrive and they will be quite severe.


15 posted on 04/18/2026 12:49:18 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

“ I predict at least 3 posters will dismiss this article due to its sourcing, and will do so derisively.”

No. Just you.😂🕺🏻😂


16 posted on 04/18/2026 12:54:01 PM PDT by MotorCityBuck (Keep the Change You Filthy Animal !)
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To: Mariner
Nothing to worry about.
The wops, brits, frogs and krauts have got it all covered.

"We all call for the immediate, unconditional, and full reopening of the ​Strait of Hormuz by all parties. We ​call for the restoration of the ​conditions of free passage that were in effect before the war ​and full respect for the law of the sea"
17 posted on 04/18/2026 1:26:27 PM PDT by budj (Combat Vet, second of three generations.)
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To: Mariner
WaPo...

Working over time to drive up USA voter living expenses and crush USA voter investments.

18 posted on 04/18/2026 1:26:50 PM PDT by zeestephen (Trump Landslide? Kamala lost the election by 230,000 votes, in WI, MI, and PA.)
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To: wildcard_redneck

Wrong. The stock market gained the most recent biggest single day gains on Friday on news that Iran had relented (most likely due to the U.S. blockade) and the Strait of Hormuz was “now” open (on Friday). But by Saturday morning the IRGC announced THEY were back in control of the Strait and only with their permission could any ships pass. Already investors are wondering if they made the wrong bets on Friday.


19 posted on 04/18/2026 1:27:43 PM PDT by Wuli ( )
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To: Mariner

<>The markets are completely disconnected from reality.<>

Urinate into the wind as you wish.


20 posted on 04/18/2026 1:30:30 PM PDT by Jacquerie (ArticleVBlog.com)
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