Posted on 04/13/2026 7:52:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump claims that the "right people" in Iran have reached out to cut a deal for real after imposing a naval blockade and cutting off Iran's income stream. Who are we talking with in Tehran? Mahdi al-Hall?
That's what Trump claimed in an ad-hoc press conference on the veranda of the Oval Office this afternoon. Trump didn't specify the identities of the "right people," but hinted that the blockade may have changed some minds over the last few hours:
Trump: The right people called from Iran, they want to make a deal. pic.twitter.com/nbcXnyn19P— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 13, 2026
One can understand why some Iranian regime remnants may want to cut a deal with Trump that meets his demands. As Trump himself put it, "Iran is doing absolutely no business and we're gonna keep it that way very easily!" Their ability to fight a blockade is all but nonexistent at this point, Trump explained. "Don't forget that Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their anti-aircraft is gone, their radar is gone, and their leaders are gone."
So who are these partners willing to talk seriously about the US demands for peace? Apparently, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammed Ghalibaf are not on the roster of the "right people." They had plenty of opportunity to cut a deal in Islamabad this weekend, but the Iranians refused to budge on any of the issues presented by the US and the Gulf states. Unless those two have recalculated on talks, the question would be whether anyone else can deliver on any commitments made in talks. At the moment, the IRGC leadership reportedly seems to think that Ghalibaf may be a Mossad mole just for showing up in Islamabad:
Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC chief, on Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf:
“The supreme leader isn’t even buried yet, and yet Ghalibaf is already shaking hands with those who kiIIed him.” -C14
pic.twitter.com/pPM13oBa7i— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 12, 2026
Imagine what the IRGC will do with anyone who offers to cut a deal with Trump that surrenders on nuclear weapons, let alone missile/drone systems and support for Hezbollah and Hamas. Even Araghchi and Ghalibaf have to worry about the Michael Collins conundrum if they cut a reasonable deal for peace. If we're talking with Masoud Pezeshkian, he's even more expendable – unless he brings an army with him. And even then ...
The problem for Iran is, as it has always been, time. The US can afford to maintain a blockade for an indefinite period of time, especially if the US Navy can free up the Strait of Hormuz for all other traffic. Trump claimed this afternoon that dozens of ships have passed through already in the last 24 hours, with more queuing up:
34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Time remains a problem for the IRGC in two other ways. First, the blockade will cost them around $450 million a day in revenue that they cannot replace. For a regime that has no stable banking system and a hyperinflationary run already, the collapse of oil revenue cannot last long without destabilizing the regime and prompting massive desertions and defections. Second, the clock is still ticking on the ceasefire, perhaps surprisingly. Trump has not ordered a resumption of air strikes on remaining regime targets, but that option has not come off the table either.
Trump issued that warning in one exchange with a reporter:
If a deal isn't reached with Iran before the end of the ceasefire, President Trump says, "it won't be pleasant for them. Let me put it that way." pic.twitter.com/wGztUapuCp— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 13, 2026
In other words, Trump has reserved options for escalation on either of two conditions. If Iran attempts to attack shipping in the strait or the US Navy ships enforcing the blockade, Trump will escalate to increase pressure on the IRGC. Even if the regime doesn't attack, though, Trump will begin escalations at the end of the ceasefire period next week. Either way, the clock is ticking on the IRGC junta and the Nepo Babytollah sockpuppet they're using.
CBS News has nearly the entire presser in this video. Reporters asked a wide range of questions, including about the kerfuffle between Trump and Pope Leo XIV, the UFC event at the White House coming soon, the 2020 election, and more.
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Interesting. No regime change. No nuclear development reduction. And it looks like Iran will be more in control of the strait of Hormuz.
It will be sad for normal Iranian citizens if there is no regime change. I expect many to be executed. And the people of Iran will be no better off.
BS. Nice try troll.
You concluded this from reading this post? You may want to read it again.
Interesting. No regime change. No nuclear development reduction. And it looks like Iran will be more in control of the strait of Hormuz.
Neatly inverts the entire article — which says the militant arm had better “cut a deal” fast — and the only deal we’re taking is the one without Iranian nuclear weapons now or developing.
And why? Because Iran is *not* in charge of Hormuz or even its “own” ports any more. Ships are moving and the Saudis opened their pipeline direct to the Med. Good bye doomer.
I understand Hudna.
ROLCON!
These crafty mullahs have finally met someone craftier.
Media? I’m referring to the Trump Administrations goals. It appears that the focus on the strait of Hormuz will be a a win for Trump. I didn’t think that opening the strait was reason for going to war on feb 28.
The sanctions of decades were supposed to economically destroy Iran, and none of it happened.
There is a widespread theory throughout pretty much all of geopolitics that countries with nuclear weapons don’t get pushed around. It’s not reasonable to expect Iran to simply not be aware of that. This would be a compelling reason for their position on the matter.
The whole concept of there being factions within Iran, the Iran that is 95% Shiite, poised and ready to overthrow Shiite leadership has also been around for decades and it’s never happened and probably never will.
Hey quick look at a map will show the Caspian Sea filled with coastlines of oil rich countries who have so far been completely willing to enter mix their oil with Iranian oil and thus avoid sanctions of the past and avoid the straits of Hormuz for the export of that oil. It’s not really reasonable to expect the United States to bomb Azerbaijan tankers or Kazakhstan tankers, or Russian tankers who also are on that sea.
And that as far as food is concerned there are the land routes eastward. I suspect the folks at the administration have focused on money as a measurement of what’s happening in Iran. If you have a central bank you can create money and I ran has a central bank. A better measurement is calories and there’s no evidence of the shelves going empty in Iran.
BS. Nice try troll. >>>Ad hominem arguments are logical fallacies during discussions. The Iranians discussion with the Trump admin appears to be focusing on the strait of hormuz opening not the original goals of the admin.
ROLCON!>>> HUDNA
Reading Revelations, I don’t see how Iran can have a regime change. They’re going to be one of the countries that attack Israel and no one will stop them. Not even the United States.
There may be people who want to make a deal.
They didn’t show up in Pakistan.
This won't be reassuring, but the chances the Iranian people got a Hollywood ending here was always next to zero. The best one could hope for, which might be playing out, is a fragcture opening up between the religious leadership of the Islamic Revolution and the military/police IRGC.
Without the religious authority of the ayatollahs, the IRGC is a military dictatorship, and one without clear and prepared leadership that will allow it to govern effectively.
If it bears out, the IRGC would be much more vulnerable and could morph into something a lot closer to Pakistan's form of government, which isn't particularly great, but it's a whole lot better than the Islamic revolution.
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