Democrats’ chances of flipping Dan Sullivan’s Senate seat get boost—poll (Alaska)

MSN ^ | March 29, 2026 | Peter Aitkin

[KingofZion]

Democrats have received some unlikely good news that challenger Mary Peltola maintains a lead against incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican, after six months of polling.

The most recent data revealed by Alaska Survey Research (ASR) found that Peltola has 52.4 percent support from respondents when undecided voters are removed from the equation, maintaining her majority lead from the October and January polls; this is a nearly five-point advantage over Sullivan, who has 47.6 percent support.

Why It Matters Historically, the ruling party suffer significant losses if they also control the White House during the sitting president’s first midterm election. Republicans have a slim majority in Congress with 217 seats to the Democrats’ 214, marking a sharp warning for a party that came out of the 2024 election on a high, having secured the White House and both chambers of Congress.

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Already, 36 sitting Republican representatives have declared their intent not to seek reelection in the upcoming midterms, marking the highest turnover for GOP lawmakers in the House over the past 100 years – which makes it essential that the party focus its efforts on retaining the already thin majority.

However, Democrats have also been hopeful about their chances of winning control of the Senateas polls show them with a fighting chance in races where Republicans have been favored. The GOP currently holds a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the chamber...

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TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: alaska; espteinfury; impeachment; peltola; senateflip; sullivan

[KingofZion]

Not good.

[ProgressingAmerica]

Maybe not as bad as Murk, but hasn’t Dan Sullivan kind of been worthless?

[pangaea6]

Are people just deranged? Have they no clue what democrats stand for? Illegals, criminals, abhorrent sexual behavior and corruption all over

[ProgressingAmerica]

I think people are worn out of politicians who are meaningless.

We need better republicans if we want people to vote for us.

If we desire a senate full of John Cornyns and Thunes, then isn’t it at least plausible to say that we desire to lose?

[gibsonguy]

It is mystifying. The rats live in the 20% of the 80-20 issues but they seem to br ahead in so many unlikely places.

[MinorityRepublican]

We need better republicans if we want people to vote for us.

Nominate more guys like Ken Paxton and Markwayne Mullin.

We have too many Republicans acting like it's still 2012 when we nominated Romney/Ryan.

[italianquaker]

Not a prayer of this

[ProgressingAmerica]

Agree

[Sarah Barracuda]

Maybe that is what people want, open borders, if that is what they want they can choke on it

[SENTINEL]

Dems cheat here in Alaska just like everywhere.

Murkowski routinely gets more votes from the villages than the voters that exist. We're talking 115% of the voting age population.

Gutless republican QUISLINGS refuse to ARREST anyone, so it continues.

[Golden Eagle]

I think most people just want stability, and healthcare. Republicans aren’t offering any of that up.

[Mr. N. Wolfe]

Maybe the voters are tired of backstabbing RINOs and milquetoast moderates.

Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK)

Liberty score: D

https://libertyscore.conservativereview.com/dan-sullivan

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Liberty score: F

https://libertyscore.conservativereview.com/lisa-murkowski

[DIRTYSECRET]

You can’t beat somebody with nobody. Paxton stepped up. Alaska has nobody. Sarah? Gag me with a spoon.

[buckalfa]

"Are people just deranged? Have they no clue what democrats stand for? Illegals, criminals, abhorrent sexual behavior and corruption all over.

TDS or simply Trump fatigue is a foot. That and honestly what has the GOP Congress done to earn votes?

[Sarah Barracuda]

and Republicans are NOT passing the SAVE ACT, no matter how much we beg and plead with them to do it and they wont do it, too damn chicken to do it..yeah maybe they want stability but do they also want open borders because that is what they will get with Dems in power

[af_vet_1981]

Known bias toward left of center

Their Oct 27, 2024 poll just before the election was 8-10 points for Trump but he won by 13.
54.54% 41.41%

ALASKA 
@The_Real_ASR
 Poll:

Trump 51% (+8)
Harris 43%
Kennedy 7%
.
Trump 55% (+10)
Harris 45%

Alaska Survey Research, 1,703 LV, 10/20-22

[curious7]

Then the locals need to replace the worthless ones in the primary. Letting a commie get into office because they are too lazy to replace a worthless rino in a primary is pretty stupid, not to mention very risky.

[spintreebob]

80-20?

1) Currently R voters as a party are 20%. Ds as a party are 15%. Independents are by far the majority.
2) Incumbent R politicians do a little better than their party. Incumbent D politicians do MUCH BETTER than their party in polls and 2025-26 elections.
3) Who actually votes is what counts. Democrat (No King) ground troops deliver their voters. (In GA 2025 for 2 statewide races.) Republicans/MAGA think it is their job to cheer and boo from the sidelines. They do not see themselves as ground troops with the job of geting their voters to actually vote. They (we) have low voter turnout.
4) Some voters consider ALL the issues and vote accordingly.
A few more consider ONE issue, their pet issue (LIFE, GUNS, INFLATION, WAR, etc) and vote accordingly.
Even more voters do not consider the issues. Some ground game volunteer knocks on their door and convinces them to vote for the candidate that HE THINKS IS THE BEST.

Oftentimes the same ground game worker is the one that convinced them to apply for an absentee ballot and is the one who follows the mailman around on the day that mailin ballots from the County are delivered to the voters.

Of course, if the dead, non-citizens, movers, vacant house, vacant lot happens to get a mailin ballot, the ground game worker becomes a VOTE HARVESTER.

[Parley Baer]

“Are people just deranged? Have they no clue what democrats stand for? Illegals, criminals, abhorrent sexual behavior and corruption all over”

I agree with you. Voting for a Democrat is a vote to end this country as we have known it. Even Fetterman gets it.

[doc maverick]

There’s illegals working in the fish canneries in Alaska and they need freebies!
They hire ‘em in Oregon too along the coast in canneries.