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Report: US intelligence report week before war found large-scale assault on Iran unlikely to cause regime collapse
Times of Israel ^ | March 7, 2026

Posted on 03/07/2026 6:34:19 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer

A classified report by the US National Intelligence Council concluded that the Iranian regime was unlikely to be toppled even by a large-scale assault, the Washington Post reports.

Three people familiar with the report tell the newspaper that the assessment, completed around a week before Israel and the US launched their assault on the Islamic Republic, outlined small- and large-scale assaults as scenarios for potential succession.

The report concluded that protocols would be followed if supreme leader Ali Khamenei were to be killed to ensure the regime’s survival, with it “unlikely” that Iran’s opposition would take control.

The Post says the White House would not comment on whether US President Donald Trump received the assessment before launching the assault.

(Excerpt) Read more at timesofisrael.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Iran; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: dnctalkiongpoint; dnctalkiongpoints; iran; journalism; leftistsource; media; mediawingofthednc; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; press; washingtoncompost; washingtonpost

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1 posted on 03/07/2026 6:34:19 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I thought this was going to be over in a matter of weeks


2 posted on 03/07/2026 6:37:13 AM PST by Sir_Humphrey (I'll support Trump when I think he's right. I'll oppose him when I think he's wrong. As it should be)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Three scumbag traitors who claim they saw a report and claim they are being honest about it.

But I don’t need their report to know air power alone doesn’t usually collapse a government.

But it can defeat a government, as in Japan.


3 posted on 03/07/2026 6:38:08 AM PST by Williams (Thank God for the election of President Trump!)
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To: Sir_Humphrey

i don’t think so. I moved my portfolio to cash. except for the Gold ETF.


4 posted on 03/07/2026 6:40:16 AM PST by kvanbrunt2
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I tend to believe that. The best time was during the recent uprising before the mass killings began.


5 posted on 03/07/2026 6:40:32 AM PST by fso301
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
A classified report by the US National Intelligence Council concluded that the Iranian regime was unlikely to be toppled even by a large-scale assault, the Washington Post reports

One didn't need a US intelligence report to know this.

Br'er Rabbit could have told you - too bad Song of the South is effectively banned or any first grader could have told you.

6 posted on 03/07/2026 6:42:32 AM PST by Jim Noble (Assez de mensonges et des phrases)
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To: Williams

Sounds like there may still be some Ciarmellos and Vindmans around. I’ve never read what the Japanese government discussions were like after getting nuked.


7 posted on 03/07/2026 6:44:45 AM PST by sopo
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Actually, it should be remembered, Trump plainly stated his goal was to make it possible for the Iranian people to topple the regime.


8 posted on 03/07/2026 6:47:31 AM PST by odawg
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I won’t speculate on this report.

I’ll just let history guide my thinking.

One doesn’t have to do much research to find out NOTHING occured on the date cited in the Gulf of Tonkin resolution.

Of course that research will lead you to a report declassified four decades after the fact.

We probably got a couple of more decades to go until we find out there never was credible intelligence that Hussein had WMD’s.

The business plan of the military industrial complex is based on profiting on lies.


9 posted on 03/07/2026 6:55:34 AM PST by Biblebelter
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Times of Israel, a relative leftist anti-Netanyahu anti-Trump source …

… we’ll see…


10 posted on 03/07/2026 6:56:45 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (May we notice massive black violence without being labeled “racist!” so we can work on solutions?)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Well the Iranian mullahs are nuts so one has to be prepared for the possibility they ride it out and hope we go away.

It is not necessarily a bad thing thing to defang Iran and then just leave and continue to monitor what they do.


11 posted on 03/07/2026 6:56:54 AM PST by plain talk
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To: fso301
We can't go back in time. We did not have our assets in place. We were focused on the operation in Venezuela in time.

The regime will survive in Iran because it is decentralized and their power is based on religion.

12 posted on 03/07/2026 6:58:28 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: Uncle Miltie

That was my first thought as well-they are they New York Times of Israel.

Many Freepers don’t know that, and they just glom onto it and run with it. I have come to appreciate the name that has been given to those types:

“Black Pillers”

Some people, if they aren’t outright Leftist trolls, are heavily invested in defeat.


13 posted on 03/07/2026 7:04:08 AM PST by rlmorel (Factio Communistica Sinensis Delenda Est)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

It’s timing. Air strike by the US and Israel are softening them up to the point where protesters can walk in and take over. Let’s hope the payback opportunity is well defined.


14 posted on 03/07/2026 7:05:18 AM PST by DIRTYSECRET
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To: rlmorel

Looks to me like the plan is to degrade the military down to the point where it does not exit as an organized force. Then it will be a tribal militia which might work in Afghanistan but probably not in a more well developed country such as Iran. There are a lot of people in Iran with a lot of resources that are not religious zealot nut cases. Maybe Trump’s plan will work.


15 posted on 03/07/2026 7:07:53 AM PST by anton
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

The assessment obviously didn’t take into accuount the 49 regime leaders who would all be killed at once while attending their meeting. The second level of regime “leaders” was then killed a few days later while voting on the Supreme Leader’s successor.


16 posted on 03/07/2026 7:12:40 AM PST by MNnice
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To: sopo

The Japanese resisted at first and it ultimately took the emperor to speak up and say they must surrender.


17 posted on 03/07/2026 7:14:48 AM PST by Williams (Thank God for the election of President Trump!)
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To: MinorityRepublican
The Iranian regime will not survive this conflict.

The Islamic Republic exists only because of violent, well organized repression to terrorize the people into submission.

The Islamic Republic is rapidly losing it's ability to enforce repression. In a matter of weeks the IRGC and it's secret police will have had it's leadership killed off and it's ability to impose its rule eliminated.

The Iranian opposition will have it's anti regime activities protected by American and Israeli air power which is world class at taking out IRGC assets whenever they try to form up in any kind of force.

It may be very messy but the Iranian Islamic Republic is a thing of the past The big question is how hard will individual IRGC members try to fight an insurgence once the regime falls.

18 posted on 03/07/2026 7:18:16 AM PST by rdcbn1 (..when poets buy guns, tourist season is over................Walter R. Mead)
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To: Sir_Humphrey

How long has it been?


19 posted on 03/07/2026 7:18:17 AM PST by RWGinger
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To: MinorityRepublican

“The regime will survive in Iran because it is decentralized and their power is based on religion.“

This is probably correct but it is true the people are tired of having the Mullahs standing on their throats.


20 posted on 03/07/2026 7:18:49 AM PST by gibsonguy
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