The Electoral College Is Poised to Get Tougher for Democrats

The Liberal Patriot ^ | Feb 03, 2026 | Michael Baharaeen

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Census projections add new urgency to the party’s quest to build a competitive coalition.

Last week, the U.S. Census Bureau released new population estimates. While the big takeaway from the data was that country’s population growth has slowed since last year—largely a result of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown—it also reinforced another trend we saw in the first part of the decade: several blue states are experiencing a major slowdown in growth while key red states are leading the pack. And if these projections materialize in the 2030 census, they could have a profound effect on American politics in the next decade and beyond.

According to three different analyses of this data, here is the list of states that are likely to gain or lose U.S. House seats (and, correspondingly, electoral votes or EVs) as well as their net seat gain:

• Blue states: California (-4), Illinois (-1), Minnesota (-1), New York (-2), Oregon (-1), Rhode Island (-1)

• Swing states: Arizona (+1), Georgia (+1), North Carolina (+1), Pennsylvania (-1), Wisconsin (-1)

• Red states: Florida (+3), Idaho (+1), Texas (+4), Utah (+1)

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This picture is striking: Democratic states are projected to lose ten EVs while Republican states are expected to gain nine. The biggest blows to Democrats are the four-seat loss in California and two-seat loss in New York. But just as concerning for them are the seven seats that Republicans are projected to gain in Florida and Texas alone.1 These changes would dramatically shift the equation for both parties when it comes to winning the Electoral College, giving Republicans a stronger advantage and closing off crucial paths to...

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: democrats; elections; electoralcollege

[FrankRizzo890]

They’ll have to cheat EXTRA hard. Either on the census itself, or on the election(s).

[FlipWilson]

All this presupposes there will be an honest census. The blue states will manufacture population from counting illegals.

[MV=PY]

Just because someone changes States doesn’t mean they’ll vote any different.

I would guess closing the border would at least have some impact.

The Trump Admin hasn’t significantly increased deportation of illegal aliens. There’s just a lot more noise about it now.

We’ll see. Hope for the best and be sure to vote!

[KC_Conspirator]

THEY WILL CHEAT. Who the eff does not see this?

[Mark17]

😀😀😀😀😀

[ProgressingAmerica]

What worries me the most are the states the progressives are about to claim.

Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and even North Carolina is going the way of Virginia. The big cities are ruining everything. Charlotte, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Las Vegas - but there are others. Raleigh/Durham, Macon, and Reno.

So we can gain 2 or 3 or 4 here or there but what is the damage when we lose whole states?

[Soul of the South]

When the Democrats next take power, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia will become states.

[piytar]

Yup. And they will.

[FLT-bird]

Biden’s open border and Blue crapholes’ sanctuary policies explained in a nutshell.

If the Census goes as expected, Republicans could win the White House without winning a single state in the formerly blue wall. The House would become very difficult for Democrats to ever win.

[DIRTYSECRET]

We won’t have Trump to do the dirty work and our reps prefer to keep their hands clean.

[napscoordinator]

We have to get through 2026 and 2028 first. If democrats win the trifecta, they will implement the 270 state interstate pact which will basically do away the electoral college. Only need a few more states.

[pghbjugop]

This will eliminate the need for the R to win any of the bluewall. WI is the smallest with 10 votes. R won’t even need that one, just win the regular R states and it’s in the bag. Imagine not having to spend time and money in PA or Michigan!

[Salman]

The next census is 2030.

The way things are going, that's too far ahead to make any definite pronouncements.

If the Democrats get the White House back in 2028 (by whatever means necessary), they will not waste time following the pattern of the UK and EU. Like when Joe Biden was president, only with much more urgency.

Then the 2030 census will not matter.

[RideForever]

Will Congress remove the members of Congress of the states who cheated in the 2020 GA election; and WA, OR, CA for refusing to provide 2020 voter registration rolls when Constitutionally requested by the Feds. (still negotiating)