Posted on 01/16/2026 3:38:14 PM PST by Uncle Miltie
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) serves as the framework through which the United States commits to long-term military assistance to Israel, typically in 10-year increments. These funds must be spent in the US to support American defense manufacturing and advance US defense innovation.
There are reports that the next MoU may extend for 20 years to avoid recurring political disputes and allow both governments to plan for the long term.
Supply delays
In late 2023 and throughout much of 2024, during my visits with Israeli soldiers in the field and meetings with Israeli political and military officials, I learned that Israel’s supply lines were rapidly constricting. This resulted in operational delays that hampered Israel’s ability to neutralize Hamas quickly and decisively.
Although the Biden administration denied any intentional slowdown, further examination revealed that the delays were real and designed to preserve plausible deniability. Tactics such as “slow-walking” arms-transfer licenses achieved the intended effect: constraining Israel’s operations, particularly the Rafah offensive, which targeted Hamas’s critical logistical hub.
Israel is designed to fight short, high-intensity wars, not multi-year campaigns.
When US policy decisions, shaped partly by political pressure and media narratives, influence the flow of essential supplies, Israel’s war fighting shifts from a military matter to a political one.
To former US president Joe Biden’s credit, he largely maintained support for Israel, despite deep friction within the Democratic Party pressuring him to end all aid during the war. But the experience underscores the vulnerabilities inherent in dependency.
Future administrations
The MoU strengthens US-Israel ties, but it also gives Washington significant leverage. Accepting tens of billions of dollars in US aid invites American scrutiny over Israel’s battlefield conduct, diplomatic choices, and overall regional strategy.
The United States and Israel share values and broad strategic interests, but they do not always align on every issue. As a global superpower, the US balances relationships with states such as Qatar and Turkey, which Israel rightly views as adversaries.
American pressure on Israel to accommodate US priorities over Israeli interests increases as aid grows more central to Israel’s military planning.
Additionally, Israel relies heavily on US diplomatic support, especially in the United Nations. This reliance compounds the leverage dynamic.
Declining the aid
Israel’s core security decisions regarding Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Qatar, Turkey, and Iraq often carry existential implications. For the US, these issues, while strategically significant, are not existential.
This asymmetry can create profound misunderstandings, particularly as influential voices in both American political parties increasingly characterize Israel not as a security asset but as a burden undermining US interests.
Future administrations, whether Democratic or Republican, may be less reliably pro-Israel, especially if dominated by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party or the isolationist wing of the Republican Party. Both factions are gaining ground. That reality demands Israeli strategic foresight.
Partnership, not dependency
A relationship built on dependence is inherently fragile. For a healthier US-Israel relationship going forward, Israel should gradually phase out accepting direct military aid and transition toward a partnership anchored in joint research and development, strengthening the coordinated regional strategy developed in CENTCOM.
When I first proposed phasing out US military aid over a decade ago, many experts believed that Israel could not survive without it. That assumption is becoming increasingly outdated. Under normal conditions, annual American grants under the MoU represent approximately 14% of Israel’s defense budget.
There are, of course, caveats.
After the US pressured Israel to abandon its Lavi fighter program, Israel became operationally dependent on American advanced platforms, such as the F-35.
Yet even here, a new paradigm is possible. As development begins of the next-generation US fighter, the F-47, Israel should be a full partner. Joint development would give Israel influence over export decisions to adversarial nations – preserving its legally guaranteed qualitative military edge (QME) and allowing both nations to benefit from shared costs and innovation.
Today, Israel is concerned about prospective US sales of the F-35 to Saudi Arabia, and the potential readmission of Turkey into the program. These decisions may advance US economic interests, but they have the potential to undermine Israel’s long-term security assessment.
Saudi political stability is not guaranteed, and Turkey under Erdogan has positioned itself as a regional challenger aligned against Israeli interests – if not against its existence as a Jewish state.
Diversifying supply lines
Israel must accelerate domestic and allied production of essential munitions from tank shells to missiles, from drones to basic ammunition. This is not about distancing Israel from the US. It is about ensuring that Israel can fight and win wars without being vulnerable to political cycles in Washington.
A more militarily independent Israel is a stronger US ally. American leaders – from President Donald Trump to Democratic and Republican leaders across the spectrum – respect that Israel seeks to defend itself by itself.
A confident, capable Israel enhances regional stability, deters adversaries such as Iran, and reduces the likelihood that American forces will be drawn into Middle Eastern conflicts under adverse terms.
The upcoming MoU, whether for 10 or 20 years, should be designed as a transition agreement. It should provide Israel with the time to expand its industrial base and diversify supply lines while moving the US-Israel partnership toward co-development rather than direct aid.
Just as important, the United States should commit to a clear supplemental aid mechanism in times of active conflict, ensuring that Israel is never perceived as weakened in a region that respects strength above all.
The next MoU can strengthen the partnership if it is the last one. A transition toward a more balanced, technologically integrated, and strategically aligned US-Israel relationship will advance the long-term national security interests of both nations.
Eric Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and senior security contributor to The Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs members of Congress, their foreign policy aides, and the State Department.
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I think that Israel should buy with their own cash as much military hardware as they might need at market prices, and we should not impede that. It’s just business.
An adjacent and similarly themed article may be found at the JPost here:
Israel’s strategic pivot: Why Netanyahu is ready to end American military aid - opinion
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-883462
God is protecting Israel.
They don’t need us.
Not that I object to helping them, but if we don’t/can’t/won’t, God will.
As development begins of the next-generation US fighter, the F-47, Israel should be a full partner. Joint development would give Israel influence over export decisions to adversarial nations
So they want a veto on who we can sell to? Tail wagging the dog
Thanks for posting.
We’ve got a half dozen posters here who constantly complain about the fact that Congress votes money for Israel’s defense.
Not a one shows up here to agree with Israel working on its own independence.
If they can’t complain about or accuse a Jew, they’re nowhere to be found.
it might take a bit of time for Israel to gear up to build its own large items like F-36’s (whatever number follows 35)
Israel was producing its own (smaller, simpler in that era) planes but USA government operatives twisted Jerusalem’s arm to quit that industry and trust America for planes... (you can sense the WashDC aircraft lobbyists through and through, ha!)
at any event, I am in favor of Israel moving in this direction... just observing the past is all
Israel gets about $3 billion a year in general aid from the USA.
Since the shocking Yom Kippur massacre of Israeli civilians, by the Hamas terror organization, 27 months ago, the USA has given Israel about $16 billion in extra military aid.
During the same time period, the USA has given Europe, Japan, and South Korea, at least $250 billion in peace time military aid.
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