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Posted on 01/11/2026 7:04:39 PM PST by delta7
Reality does not negotiate. There are decisive geostrategic consequences of the two Gates of Silver closing at the same time. The first Gate of Silver that closed is that the world’s silver price is now the price of physical silver, which is fixed largely in Shanghai and in Chinese Yuan (CNY), not US Dollars (USD). The second Gate of Silver that closed is that as of January 1st. China not only dominates the world’s silver refining capacity no matter where silver is mined, it requires a permit to export silver, so Beijing decides to whom silver can be exported. For example, Mexico leads the global mining of silver but bans export of silver, except of ore to China for processing, so China decides who can buy silver refined from ore mined in Mexico. Fully 70% of globally traded refined silver ultimately comes from China (World Population Review, 2025; Marketwatch, 2026). The, US in contrast, produces as little as 20% of its total silver need (MoneyMetalsExchange, 2025; Birch Gold Group, 2025). The salient consequence of both Silver Gates closing is that China decides who gets silver and why, and when Beijing does permit the export of silver it decides the currency of payment. Since January 1 when silver export permitting took effect, Beijing has canceled the loading of scheduled shipments which until now had been paid for with US Treasury Notes. 1 ShadowStats Commentary January 9, 2026 Washington’s ability to fund itself depends on the demand for Treasury Notes not only to settle trade but to serve as the leading global reserve asset. The demand for Treasury Notes ultimately relies on the credibility of the US military to support the buyers. The US military in turn, relies on silver. Modern military hardware turns to brick without it. You see where this is going. China’s dominance of global silver supply thereby challenges America’s military power and the demand for US Treasury Notes in two ways. First, with foreign demand hobbled, the Fed must buy debt ever faster with mouse clicked money, further inflating the money supply to keep the military and Washington running. Second, the growing displacement of US Treasuries in global reserves and trade settlement, including for precious and rare earth metals, means reduced confidence in the USD because its collateral is US Treasury Notes. Recall from the December 19, 2025 commentary that vulnerability to hyperinflation depends in part on the credibility of a currency’s collateral. The partial loss of credibility of a currency’s collateral opens the door to Type 1 hyperinflation in which prices double every other year. The complete loss of the collateral’s credibility opens the door to Type 2 hyperinflation in which the currency cracks without warning followed by the economy. Iran's riots started when the currency lost value so fast that wholesalers and bazar merchants who sold goods in the morning found their profit and ability to restock gone by the end of the day. They closed shops and hit the streets. Most seriously for the regime, hyperinflation hit not only the livelihoods of the people but also of the Basiji paramilitia, the Revolutionary Guard Corp and the professional military. The clock ticks on a regime that does not reliably pay its muscle or its military. Meanwhile, the US has about $3T of Treasury Notes to sell early in 2026. 2 ShadowStats Commentary January 9, 2026 China has the US over a barrel. Only China has reserves large enough to buy the largest part of that $3T tranche. This is China’s moment to exact subtle but unmistakable conditions in return for selling the US silver and buying large amounts of US Treasury Notes, in which the US implicitly accommodates China’s version of the Monroe Doctrine over both the South China Sea (which China considers its territorial waters) and the coastal seas between China and America’s post-WWII defensive perimeter. China calls the American Pacific defense perimeter, which runs from South Korea to Borneo, the “first island chain.” The prize in the first island chain, of course, is control of Taiwan, which is both existential to Beijing and the lynchpin of the Pacific defense perimeter. If the US and China quietly reach agreement on security accommodations a funding crisis will have been postponed but the credibility of US defense commitments and with it the credibility of the US Dollar’s Treasury Note collateral will have been compromised. This is the scenario of hyperinflation through capitulation. Over time, the lost credibility of American security guarantees will speed the global selling of Treasuries as Washington’s need to sell even more of them explodes. The hyperinflation tsunami which has already detonated select cryptocurrencies and is now reaching precious metals, will in time likely barrel through to other asset classes, commodities and finally consumer prices. If the US does not accommodate China’s interests, however, tensions will build toward conflict while the Fed monetizes even more federal debt either in the open, ballooning its balance sheet, or via swap lines with foreign central banks, possibly on condition that the US commit to supporting Europe in the event of war with Russia. This is the scenario of hyperinflation with rising risk of war. The United States, however, lacks the silver supply and the industrial capacity to defend both European and Asian allies at the same time. You can see where this is going too. Unless China buys US Treasuries, and licenses silver exports to the US including for military purposes, without requiring strategic accommodation in return, 3 ShadowStats Commentary January 9, 2026 hyperinflation of the global dollar supply will repeat and hyperinflation of consumer prices become more likely. Therefore, a consequence to watch for in 2026 of the Two Silver Gates closing is the US quietly .......more....
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If you don’t like the format , go to GATA.org and read the file. Posted as a public service......by the way, the China market opened at 6PM....Silver ripped to $83 and climbing.
Something is fishy when running an obscure website instead of a brokerage firm?
Bill Murphy, chairman and director.
Murphy grew up in Glen Ridge, N.J., and graduated from the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University in 1968. In his senior year he broke all the Ivy League single-year pass-receving records. He then became a starting wide receiver for the Boston Patriots of the American Football League. He went on to work for various Wall Street brokerage firms and specialized in commodity futures. He began as a Merrill Lynch trainee and went on to Shearson Hayden Stone and Drexel Burnham. From there he became affiliated with introducing brokers and eventually started his own brokerage on 5th Avenue in New York. He now operates an Internet site for financial commentary, LeMetropole Cafe.
Silver is still at all-of-history ridiculously low prices compared to everything else. Get some before it becomes unobtainium.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SilverDegenClub/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/
Silver Price Performance USD
Change Amount %
Today +3.90 +4.90%
30 Days +16.07 +25.31%
6 Months +41.14 +107.09%
1 Year +49.87 +167.98%
5 Year +54.21 +213.86%
20 Years +70.50 +778.14%
silverprice.org - 22:17 NY Time
*as stated in the past, China now controls the pricing.
“Get some before it becomes unobtainium.”
Unobtainium?
Are you quoting delta7 or did his alter ego slip up?
It is interesting. Never knew about China’s control of Silver refining. Most likely it is an ecologically dirty process or/and has a large labor element that makes it unprofitable without slave labor or government subsidies.
The author presents it as the the horns of a dilemma without the option to try to go between the horns.
Very pessimistic indeed. He makes it sound like we are going down with no way to stop it except via capitulation.
I usually take these analyses for what they are worth. This is from “The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee”. They have a vested interest. Doesn’t mean they are wrong. It means they have a vested interest in a certain outcome.
I wuz crit by a wall of txt /dead
I will also add that China had export limits on Silver for years so they went from little to none.
Absolutely right. We are at nominal highs, not inflation-adjusted highs.
The word on the street ( those in the metals market), President Trump ordered the big banks that were shorting Silver with millions of paper Silver short contracts ( for decades) to cease and let the markets determine fair price.
Go President Trump! Cleaning up our corrupted financial system is long overdue.
9 Jan....another 850,000 oz/t withdrawn ( delivery taken) from our corrupted Comex....the banksters are in a heap of trouble.....$$$ billions....no tears.
Another Bear Stearns in the making? Very few understand.
You should have acted on the forecasts.......this Bull market started in 2023.....$$$$$$........Hi Ho Silver! ....it’s just warming up.
“You should have acted on the forecasts.......this Bull market started in 2023.....$$$$$$........Hi Ho Silver! ....it’s just warming up.”
But you didn’t “forecast” it till 2025 ...
“Modern military hardware turns to brick without
it. You see where this is going.”
No I don’t. Where is it going ?
I really hate it when people just make crap up because they are clueless.
A cruise missile currently uses about 500oz of silver with most of that in a one time use Silver Zinc battery
Modern high-power lithium-ion or lithium-metal batteries now significantly outperform silver-zinc in energy density.
For high-end missile applications, converting from a 19-cell silver-zinc pack to a 24-cell high-power lithium pack can result in a 30% reduction in size.
While silver-zinc once offered “one-fourth the space” of lead-acid, it is no longer the most compact option available for missile electronics.
We are currently using it cause that is what was spec’d when they were designed. They can and should be retrofitted.
Silver-zinc primary reserve batteries frequently require gas generators, squibs, and heaters to function correctly in cold high-altitude environments.
Modern lithium-thionyl chloride or specialized solid-state cells (like those entering the defense market in 2026) can eliminate these extra mechanical components entirely, offering better “all-in-one” ruggedness
The other silver is used for circuit boards, but it does not have to be.
RoHS is why we use silver based solder instead of traditional lead based solder.
but silver solder is only 3% silver. The rest is tin and copper.
While commercial electronics must be strictly lead-free, critical military and aerospace systems are often exempt because they need to be reliable.
Silver solder is not Better for anything military. *
*If anyone cares I know a lot about this subject, as I spent a long time digging to find out how the whole RoHS thing came about, but it was born in an anonymous EU committee passed it into law and said we will no longer allow any electronics using lead solder to be sold in the EU. Then the US copycats did the same thing today at work if I used lead based solder to replace an smd on a motherboard They would freak out, Fire me, call a hazmat team and check everything I have ever touched.
Does anyone else know that there was a 2nd Manhattan project and why ? hint RoHS
The “2nd Manhattan Project” (formally known as the
Pb-Free Electronics Manhattan Project or LFEMP) was a high-priority, multi-agency initiative launched by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to address the existential risks posed to military hardware by the global transition to lead-free electronics.
While the original Manhattan Project developed nuclear weapons, this 21st-century equivalent focused on preventing the unintended “self-destruction” of sophisticated weapon systems like cruise missiles due to mandatory changes in manufacturing.
Very pessimistic indeed. He makes it sound like we are going down with no way to stop it except via capitulation.
We have ALOT of catching up to do, Silver, Gold, Copper, Uranium, Antimony, Rare Earths, etc....and I fully expect him to reopen Trade with Russia as they have much of what we desperately need.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/15/business/trump-putin-business-opportunities-intl
“Trump is open to doing business with Russia.”
Very pessimistic indeed. He makes it sound like we are going down with no way to stop it except via capitulation.
We have ALOT of catching up to do, Silver, Gold, Copper, Uranium, Antimony, Rare Earths, etc....and I fully expect him to reopen Trade with Russia as they have much of what we desperately need.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/15/business/trump-putin-business-opportunities-intl
“Trump is open to doing business with Russia.”
When all is said and done, the Chicoms have been waging war on us for 30 years, and it is a deep hole to climb out of.
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