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Posted on 11/20/2025 2:42:04 PM PST by janetjanet998
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Ukraine ping
Owen: [That’s too extreme.
The newest Senate sanctions bill has been carefully crafted to only activate if Trump says yes. He certainly has said yes to advancing the legislation, because it provides him total control over it. Check the details.
He can refuse to allow it to engage, because it interferes with his efforts.
That’s called helping the other side.]
“Trump zeroed out aid. He has no leverage. The Ukrainians will listen to the Trump proposal, but so long as European aid continues, the country will fight, much as Russia relied on US aid to avoid military defeat in WW2.”
I suspect this is the expected result. Trump will then withdraw more US assets from Europe causing the flow of money going to the Ukraine to divert as the reality hits that the EU (and the UK) are already struggling to pay the Ukraine and the peons, oops I mean people, in Europe are already revolting over taxes rising to pay for this war in a time when money is tight.
Ukraine ping
Rottweiler: [I suspect this is the expected result. Trump will then withdraw more US assets from Europe causing the flow of money going to the Ukraine to divert as the reality hits that the EU (and the UK) are already struggling to pay the Ukraine and the peons, oops I mean people, in Europe are already revolting over taxes rising to pay for this war in a time when money is tight.]
But the idea that sending $100b to Ukraine is a strain is ludicrous. Europe’s GDP is $24T. $100b is .4% of European GDP. The US sent 3% of its GDP to Russia per year of WW2. Britain managed to send 0.6% to Russia while fighting all-out war against Germany and Japan simultaneously, while Britons teetered on the boundaries of hunger. Europe can easily manage 0.4% to Ukraine.
While measly relative to what Ukraine needs to win, so long as Europe persists in its aid, Ukraine will likely prevail. Russia’s economy, at 1/10 Europe’s, is simply too small to outspend Europe’s. Germany was able to take on all the major powers at once because it had the #2 economy and had taken over France’s, another large economy, Poland’s and Czechoslovakia’s.
Russia simply doesn’t have the staying power, unless China steps in. But if China steps in, so does the US - on Ukraine’s side.
This is the reason for the war. Linda let it slip the real reason for it. Money. Our world leaders are making off like bandits and impoverishing and killing us to make off like bandits.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/CJ6UCHCmPPo
We have “some” leverage: We are still selling weapons to the euros to send to Ukraine and we are continuing with the eased up on range and target restrictions on their use. Yesterday(?) ATACMS were used yet again over 200 km into mainland Russia: It’d be interesting to know just exactly what version was used.
OTOH, we don’t have huge numbers of ATACMS to spare. So, then the question becomes whether or not Merz will start sending Taurus. Or, will Euro-NATO countries like Poland set up factories in their own countries, perhaps largely employing Ukrainian refugees, to produce Ukrainian-designed missiles? I’d be willing to bet that some subassemblies and many parts are already being made / sourced outside Ukraine.
I suspect the sanctions are becoming more than a minor irritant. The amount of Russian oil in floating storage has ballooned to roughly US $21 billion dollars worth - and that’s just the reporting from reputable companies. Total oil in floating storage globally is around 1 billion barrels — that is not a lot compared to global consumption, but present global pricing indicates a significant supply glut. Trump’s “direct” sanctions kick in today, and so far we see that China, India, and Turkey are all reducing their purchases from Russia, further indicating sufficient alternative supply is developing. Trump “buttering up” the Saudis (etc.) certainly has not hurt.
The immediate financial effect on Russia is not the major issue. The greater problem for Russia is what happens when floating storage capacity available to it runs out. Russia will no doubt try to squirm past the sanctions, but, the incentive for “the West” to not enforce sanctions is evaporating — because of increased alternative supply.
As regarding Ukraine rejecting “Trump’s plan”, that’s already done. IMO the Ukies will fight even if aid diminishes, but the nature of the war will change, and we might well see something more like a giant intifada on steroids.
It should be noted that MANY FReepers and others personalize most issues too much. Sometimes even I fall into that trap. It’s not that Z-man or Pooty are inconsequential, but, look at Zelensky: In each instance, when the pressure is on and his advisors are available, he huddles with them, and THEN comes out with a response. Julia Tymoshenko related this very well, describing the hours after Russia invaded. All the disparate faction leaders (except the extreme pro-Russians) gathered, Z-man asked them for their advice, and TOGETHER they made the decision to fight.
Similar happened here: “Zelensky” did not reject the Whitkoff proposal. Ukraine did.
The only way Russia can subdue the Ukies and win this war is by doing to Ukraine what Russia did to tiny Chechnya, which had few resources and little support. It took Russia 2 vicious wars and 15 years.
It’s a LOT more than “the Azov’s in the military”.
Ukraine ping
PaulR: [The only way Russia can subdue the Ukies and win this war is by doing to Ukraine what Russia did to tiny Chechnya, which had few resources and little support. It took Russia 2 vicious wars and 15 years.]
Russia no longer has the strength on the ground to see their war through to the conquest of Ukraine. Their troops are now resorting to the use of improvised civilian vehicles akin to the ‘technicals’ of such advanced military powers like Somalia, Afghanistan, and Sudan.
With Trump withdrawing support for Ukraine he is also ending US influence in Ukraine. That means they get to tear up his vaunted rare earth minerals deal now that he’s reneging on his end of it.
I’m sure the European Union will appreciate this mistake in the decades to come.
Demanding Ukraine accept terms that are clearly a set up for Russia to invade when they are strong enough is never going to happen.
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