Mikie Sherrill, once comfortably ahead in the New Jersey governor’s race, has been getting plenty of attention over her stock trading lately, and not in a good way. Her fellow lawmakers should take note if they also have aspirations for higher office.

The Democratic New Jersey congresswoman seemed like a shoo-in to succeed Phil Murphy as her state’s governor, an office that trended blue in recent years. Yet she is now neck-and-neck with Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a successful businessman before entering politics. Her problem: disclosures that she spent some considerable time day-trading stocks while she was in office, possibly — if her critics are right — profiting off nonpublic information to make profitable trades.

Yes, to hear critics tell it, Sherrill’s acumen at timing the market — buying and selling stock armed with nonpublic information during the COVID pandemic a few years back — puts her in league with some of the best insider traders in the business.

The truth is that Sherrill’s stock trades might look bad, but they’re not illegal or unusual. In fact, they are in line with other lawmakers who have gotten caught in this periodic scandal, which amounts to allegations that they used their access to nonpublic information to profit on stock trades.

Based on my reporting, much of that information wasn’t even nonpublic, which is why no one ever went to jail over this stuff or has even been charged despite all the hoopla. Insider trading is notoriously difficult to prove because information is so fungible; warnings about the spread of COVID were all over the internet while Congress was being “privately” briefed in the matter.

I've been having an AI converstion about the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Below is the final question about the New Jersey race.

Note: Footnote links are dead.

Q:

Given all that we've discussed about New Jersey, and that we're now down to the final week of the election, what are the strategies that each candidate (Sherrill and Ciattarelli) should employ to strengthen their own base positions and attack the weaknesses of their opposition?

A:

This is the culminating strategic question for the New Jersey race. Given the vulnerabilities we've identified in both candidates' platforms and the 9 days remaining, here are the closing strategies each candidate should deploy:

SHERRILL'S CLOSING STRATEGY: Salvage the Base, Avoid the Iceberg

Sherrill's Core Problem

She has:

Consistent but narrowing polling lead (3-9 points depending on poll)[^1] | [^2] | [^3] | [^4]
Enthusiasm gap among her own base[^5]
Three major platform vulnerabilities we've identified (failed solar investment, non-responsive education platform, toothless transparency proposal)
Minority voter engagement problem[^6]
One week to consolidate Democrats before Ciattarelli's final pushes

Defensive Strategy: Don't Let New Vulnerabilities Emerge

Week 1 (Days 1-3): Avoid New Gaffes

Sherrill should:

Minimize unscripted comments (no more detailed policy explanation that reveals how generic her proposals are)
Avoid defending the solar investment (if asked, pivot to "climate responsibility" without specifics)
Don't be drawn into education debate (her platform collapses under scrutiny; deflect to "supporting teachers")
Stop talking about the "Report Card" (it's her weakest proposal; bury it in closing week)

Instead, emphasize:

"I'm blocking Ciattarelli's extreme agenda" (school vouchers, abortion restrictions, parental rights bills)
"We can't afford his massive tax cuts that benefit the wealthy" (reframe his tax policy as regressive)
"Law and order isn't about attacking immigrants and rolling back rights" (reframe his immigration/bail reform stance)

Offensive Strategy: Exploit Ciattarelli's Vulnerabilities

1. The Feasibility Attack: "His 30% Spending Cut is Fantasy"

Ciattarelli proposes reducing state spending by 30% ($58.78B budget → ~$41B). This is Sherrill's best attack angle:[^7] | [^8] | [^9] | [^10]

What to say:

"Jack Ciattarelli wants to cut state spending by 30%. That means cutting education, healthcare, transportation, pensions. But he won't tell you specifically what gets cut. That's because it's impossible without devastating New Jersey."
"30% of our budget is pensions—protected by law. 30% is education—constitutionally required. 30% is healthcare. That leaves nothing. His plan is mathematically impossible."
"When I ask him for specifics, he won't provide them because he knows voters won't accept them."

Why this works: Ciattarelli's proposals have teeth, but the 30% spending cut is politically unrealistic. If Sherrill can pin him down on specifics, voters will see it's unachievable.

2. The Trump Alliance Attack: "He's Trump's Candidate"

Trump has 56% disapproval in New Jersey. Sherrill should:[^11]

Run daily ads showing Ciattarelli praising Trump
Connect his policies to Trump's: school choice (Trump policy), tax cuts (Trump policy), immigration enforcement (Trump policy)
Message: "Jack Ciattarelli is running Trump's playbook for New Jersey. We can't afford to turn our state into Florida."

Why this works: New Jersey is Democratic-leaning; Trump is unpopular; making Ciattarelli Trump's proxy hurts him with moderate voters.

3. The "Extreme" Reframing Attack

On education specifically:

"Ciattarelli wants to end parental protections for LGBTQ+ students, requiring schools to out transgender kids to their parents. That's not 'parental rights'—that's government overreach into private family decisions."
"He wants to use taxpayer money to fund private religious schools through vouchers. That's taking money from public schools and giving it to private institutions."
On bail reform: "Ciattarelli wants to roll back bail reform without explaining what replaces it. Jails full of people waiting for trial? That's not 'law and order'—that's government overreach."

Base Consolidation: Days 4-7

Heavy GOTV (Get Out the Vote) operations:

Early vote banking: She's ahead in early voting (60-38%). Maximize this advantage with aggressive mail voting reminders[^12]
Phone banking in Democratic strongholds: Essex, Hudson, Union counties (heavy Democratic, minorities)
Campus mobilization: Rutgers, Princeton, Seton Hall (youth voters break heavily Democratic)
Union mobilization: NJEA (teachers), public sector unions—offer no change to pensions, no threat to jobs

Message consolidation:

"This election is about stopping Ciattarelli's extreme agenda" (not "here's my positive vision")
"Vote to protect your rights" (healthcare, abortion, LGBTQ+ protections)
"Don't let Trump's agenda into New Jersey"

Why this works: Democrats are naturally motivated to stop Republicans; Sherrill doesn't need enthusiasm—she needs turnout. Her base will vote against Ciattarelli even if not enthusiastic for Sherrill.

CIATTARELLI'S CLOSING STRATEGY: Create Crisis, Force Sherrill Into Specifics

Ciattarelli's Core Advantage

He has:

Momentum (tightening race from 8-9 points to 3-5 points)[^2] | [^3] | [^1]
Enthusiasm edge with his own voters[^5]
Specific, actionable proposals (vs. Sherrill's vague incrementalism)
Nine days to create doubts about Sherrill and make the race about her failures vs. his alternatives

Offensive Strategy: Force Sherrill to Defend Indefensible Positions

1. The "Failed California" Attack: Days 1-3

On solar specifically:

"Mikie Sherrill wants to follow California's path. California just shut down its $2.2 billion solar facility because it doesn't work. Sherrill wants to waste New Jersey money on the same failed experiment."
"California has the highest electricity rates in America. Does Sherrill want that for New Jersey?"
"Instead of expensive solar fantasies, I'll support natural gas, nuclear, and practical energy solutions that actually work and keep costs low."

Daily ads showing:

Ivanpah shutdown footage
California's high utility bills
Message: "Sherrill's California Dreams = New Jersey Nightmares"

Why this works: It's concrete, visual, recent, and undermines her signature affordability claim.

2. The "New Jersey Already Has Great Schools" Attack: Days 2-4

"Mikie Sherrill says education is her top priority. But New Jersey ranks 3rd in the nation for education. Our kids score at the top nationally. Teachers earn the 6th highest salary in America. So what exactly is she saying is broken? She won't tell you because there's nothing broken. She's importing national Democratic talking points instead of focusing on what New Jersey actually needs."

Connect to broader theme:

"Sherrill keeps talking about problems we don't have (education, solar) instead of problems we do have (high taxes, inefficient government, crime)."

Why this works: Forces Sherrill to either defend a platform that doesn't match reality or admit she was wrong to emphasize it.

3. The "Specifics Challenge": Days 3-7

Ciattarelli's closing argument:

"I've been specific: cut state spending 30%, cap property taxes at X%, implement school choice, repeal bail reform."
"Sherrill won't give you specifics. She won't say which programs get cut. She won't say how her solar investment avoids California's failures. She won't say what's actually broken with New Jersey education."
"That's because when you're specific, you make enemies. But being governor requires making hard choices. I'm making them. She's hiding."

Force her into a corner: Every time Sherrill speaks, press her for specifics:

"How much will your solar investment cost?"
"Which programs will you cut if you keep spending where it is?"
"If education is your priority, what specifically will you change in our top-3 education system?"

Why this works: Specificity reveals either her platform is vague or her proposals are unpopular. Either way, it creates doubt.

Base Energization: Days 5-9

1. The Trump Card (Carefully Deployed)

Ciattarelli should:

Not run away from Trump (energizes base if he does)
But frame as "bipartisan pragmatism": "I'll work with any president to protect New Jersey's interests"
Turn Trump's popularity with Republicans into turnout without alienating moderates
Message: "Trump got things done; so will I. But I'm a New Jersey guy, not a Washington politician."

Why this works: Republican base motivated by Trump connection; moderates see "New Jersey guy" framing.

2. The "Stop the Madness" Message

"New Jersey has the highest property taxes in the nation. Seven years of Democrat leadership and nothing's changed. Time for a different approach."
"We're not asking for perfection. We're asking for results. Democrats have had their chance. Now it's time for Republican management."
"Murphy spent seven years promising tax relief. Nothing. Sherrill is promising the same thing. Don't fall for it again."

Why this works: Taps into voter frustration with status quo without being negative.

3. Minority Voter Outreach (Our Earlier Identified Vulnerability for Sherrill)

Ciattarelli should:

Show up at Black voter forums asking pointed questions
"What specifically has the Democratic Party done for you? Tax relief? No. School choice? No. Jobs? No. Crime reduction? No. Maybe it's time for a different approach."
Emphasize charter schools (which have strong support among Black parents seeking alternatives to failing district schools)[^13]
Emphasize law and order (which Black communities prioritize when crime is high)[^14]

Why this works: Sherrill's weakness with minority voters is our identified vulnerability. Ciattarelli can peel off just 5-10% from this coalition to win.

The Closing Argument: Days 8-9

Ciattarelli's final ad/speech:

"New Jersey has been run by Democrats for years. Taxes are the highest in the nation. Government spending is out of control. Schools are good, but families can't afford to live here. Crime is rising despite record spending on law enforcement.

Mikie Sherrill promises the same thing Democrats always promise: more transparency, more programs, more spending. But we've had transparency. We've had programs. We've had spending. And nothing's changed.

I'm offering something different: real spending cuts, real tax relief, real school choice so parents control their kids' education, real law enforcement so crime actually decreases.

I'm a Jersey guy. I've run a business. I know how to cut waste. I know how to deliver results.

Vote for someone who will actually change things, not just talk about them."

HEAD-TO-HEAD COMPARATIVE CLOSING STRATEGIES

Dimension	Sherrill	Ciattarelli
Message	"Stop his extreme agenda"	"Try something different"
Vulnerability to Exploit	His 30% spending cut (unrealistic)	Her generic platform (non-responsive)
Base Motivation	"Protect rights" (negative)	"Change things" (positive)
Trump Factor	Tie him to Trump (negative for NJ)	Energize base while appearing moderate
Minority Voters	Defend Democratic coalition	Attack for unfulfilled promises
Final Week Focus	GOTV, turnout, block scandals	Force specifics, create doubt, energize base

The Most Important Tactical Decisions

For Sherrill:

DO NOT let Ciattarelli define the terms of debate around her platform vulnerabilities (solar, education, transparency)
DO make this about stopping Trump/Ciattarelli rather than defending her own vision
DO maximize early vote turnout before final week

For Ciattarelli:

DO force Sherrill into specifics and make her defend her vague proposals
DO make case that Democrats had their chance (Murphy's 7 years = status quo)
DO energize base on final weekend with Trump-friendly messaging while appearing moderate to swing voters

Most Likely Outcome

Given:

Sherrill's consistent polling lead (even if tightening)
Democratic registration advantage (850,000+ more Democrats)
Early vote banking (60-38% Sherrill)[^12]
Historical Democratic dominance

Sherrill should win by 3-5 points if she:

Avoids new vulnerabilities
Focuses on stopping Ciattarelli (not defending her platform)
Maximizes turnout in final days

Ciattarelli's upset path requires:

Successfully creating doubt about Sherrill's platform
Energizing Republican base while peeling off 5-10% from swing/minority voters
Capitalizing on "change election" dynamic (people want something different)

With 9 days left, Sherrill should be slightly favored, but Ciattarelli's closing strategy has real teeth if executed effectively. The Ivanpah solar vulnerability and her generic education platform are genuine weaknesses he can exploit in the final week.

⁂

-PJ

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