Hiring data show disturbing trend just days before crucial jobs report

thestreet ^ | Sep 4, 2025 | Mary Helen Gillespie

[lasereye]

The latest buzz on who’s hiring for what job in which company will have a potentially huge economic impact on your wallet – and very soon.

Yes, U.S. job openings are more than a measure of hiring.

They are a leading indicator shaping how the Federal Reserve responds to both inflation and employment.

This is why the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) for July released Sept. 3 is an influential data point in terms of whether the Federal Open Market Committee will cut the benchmark interest rates at its Sept. 17 meeting.

The Jolts, a monthly report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks job openings, hires, and separations across industries.

The report offers:

• A detailed look at labor demand, showing how many positions employers are trying to fill, how quickly workers are being hired, and how often they quit or are laid off

• A key tool for economists, businesses, and policymakers that helps measure the health and flexibility of the job market

• Data the Federal Reserve can use to weigh its dual mandate from Congress to maintain maximum employment and price stability

• Signals — such as the number of job openings relative to available workers — indicating tight labor conditions that could fuel wage growth and inflation

• Indicators, such as slowing hiring or rising layoffs, that point to weakening economic momentum and influence how the Fed sets interest rate policy

The July Jolts report showed U.S. job openings fell to the lowest in 10 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

• Available positions decreased to 7.18 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June.

• The drop in openings was driven by health care, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality.

• Vacancies in health care, a major driver of job growth in 2025, dropped to the lowest level since 2021.

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said in a note that the decline also centered on state and local government job openings.

“This is notable because these acylical parts of the jobs market have been the areas lifting employment growth the most,’’ Dutta said. “If you lose these acyclical areas you don’t really have much else [to] keep payroll growth with a plus sign in front of it.”

In addition to the openings data, the pace of hiring has slowed, and it is taking longer for unemployed people to find another position.

The FOMC has taken a cautious “wait and see” approach to interest rate cuts, balancing signs of tariff inflation with concerns about the slowing labor market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that with inflation close to the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers must weigh risks associated with the labor market.

Powell signaled flexibility, noting the Fed would respond to new data as it is released rather than lock in a preset course.

The FOMC last cut the funds rate in December 2024.

It has been tracking the expected inflationary impact of the largest U.S. tariffs in 90 years imposed by President Donald Trump.

Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented in July when the FOMC voted to hold the Federal Funds Rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%.

It was the first FOMC dissent of Powell’s term as chair, and in decades at the Fed.

Waller doubled down on the need for multiple rate cuts on Sept. 3, saying the “labor market has come in much softer” in a CNBC interview.

“When the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast,” Waller said, adding that any inflation from the tariffs would be short-term.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: data; jobs

[lasereye]

Powell is an incompetent dolt. It is not the Fed's job to try to counteract price increases due to tariffs. They won't be continual price increases, as Waller pointed out.

[Red Badger]

The singular purpose of the Federal Reserve is to maintain the value of the paper money they issue.

And they can’t even do that.............

[Vermont Lt]

Just wait until the first week of November. All of the Federal employees who “took the deal” are going to fall off the rolls. Those who haven’t found new jobs are going to spike the labor reports. And many people are gong to be ‘surprised.” That is going to be fun.

I imagine a lot of manufacturing folks are waiting for the tariff impact to settle down.

A rate cut isn’t going to do anything about labor for a few months.

[fruser1]

health care, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality

So those in retail trade, leisure, and hospitality are used to churning through illegals. Instead of giving someone a raise, flush them and grab another.

With fewer illegals, thanks to Trump, they can't do that as much.

Fewer illegals also means fewer emergency room visits for the common cold, so fewer needed in health care.

I'd say this a a NET PLUS.

[iamgalt]

It looks to me like a short term pain longterm gain situation.

[Ex-Con777]

This is just a face saving narrative so Powell can lower interest rates to avoid Trump’s wrath.

EC

[Alberta's Child]

It is not the Fed's job to try to counteract price increases due to tariffs.

Well, it sort of IS the Fed's job to do that ... at least one of the Fed's jobs.

[Alberta's Child]

The Federal Reserve cannot maintain the value of the paper money it issues if the U.S. is $37T+ in debt and there is no sign of this debt growth ever ending.

[con-surf-ative]

Thank you for posting an article that actually defines what the “JOLTS” report is and what it measures. I had never heard of it before, and I keep fairly well abreast of business news.

Every business show I have seen and article I have read in last few days keeps mentioning that the July JOLTS is coming out, without providing the meaning behind the acronym, or giving any context. We are just supposed to know what it means.

The state of modern journalism is pathetic indeed.

[Old West Conservative]

Or you could Google JOLTS + BLS

[cowboyusa]

I except the August Jobs report to be very low. Nobody hires in August.

[armourenthusiast]

Dont we read everyday that bitcoin and gold are the future? “The Federal Reserve cannot maintain the value of the paper money it issues if the U.S. is $37T+ in debt and there is no sign of this debt growth ever ending.”

[Varsity Flight]

Females in the workplace, not at home. Dislocation. Men closed out of working hours. ✖️

[hinckley buzzard]

A decline in government job openings is fresh air for the economy.

[jmacusa]

Trumps border enforcement has lessened the illegal traffic considerably in my hospitals ER over the last year.

Not quite as many Mexican freeloaders and this is in southern NJ.

[con-surf-ative]

Articles need to explain their context and define their terms. That’s just basic good writing.

[dfwgator]

Articles need to explain their context and define their terms. That’s just basic good writing.

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But that doesn’t make for good ‘propaganda’.

[In_Iowa_not_from]

Just wait until the first week of November. All of the Federal employees who “took the deal” are going to fall off the rolls. Those who haven’t found new jobs are going to spike the labor reports. And many people are gong to be ‘surprised.”

It'll only be surprising to people who get all of their "news" from Breitbart and Gateway Pundit.

[Old West Conservative]

The numbers are seasonally adjusted so any August effect is taken into account.

[lasereye]

Correctly understood, the Fed's job is to not cause inflation by excess expansion of the money supply.