Europe's Make Believe Defence Pledges

Brussels Signal ^ | 7/10/25 | Gabriel Elefteriu

[EnderWiggin1970]

Last month’s NATO summit in The Hague gave off the disturbing impression of an alliance finally crossing the fine line between serious defence policy into the realm of make-believe. The main outcome was presented to the world as a “new 5 per cent defence spending pledge” by all allies. The previous target, dating from 2014, was 2 per cent. President Trump naturally claimed the new benchmark as a “big win”, with the White House calling it a “monumental victory” and a “dramatic” increase in defence contributions across the alliance. Yet hardly any of this is true.

Of the 5 per cent, 1.5 is to be counted as any spending intended to “protect critical infrastructure, defend networks, ensure civil preparedness and resilience, innovate, and strengthen the defence industrial base”. In other words, this part of the grand new defence commitment is really an exercise in accounting, as a variety of existing types of rolling domestic investments can simply be designated as “NATO spending”. Italy already plans to declare a €13.5 billion bridge to Sicily as a contribution towards defending Europe – which would be funny if it weren’t a logical outcome of what NATO defence policy has devolved to.

[EnderWiggin1970]

"The well-known problem is that neither Britain nor most of its European peers can afford any of these, let alone hope in some miraculous economic growth. They are too weighed down by regulation, taxes, Green costs, expensive energy, deindustrialisation, an aging population and a migrant onslaught to be able to splurge on rearmament at scale. "

[Mariner]

Europe is lost.

They don’t know it yet, but they will be assimilated into some fascist state, internal or external. Somebody “will make the trains run on time”.

There is no hope whatsoever for Europe as we know it.

[ConservativeMind]

If Russia took them over, the place would make more sense.

That’s not encouraging.

[BeauBo]

This is just the public discussion of the budget increases for Defense.

Underlying these numbers, is the deliberate planning process of NATO. The NATO Operational Plan for war with Russia has been updated since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and additional force and infrastructure requirements have been identified to resource that plan. Those requirements have been costed out, and divided among NATO Member States, who are already implementing their acquisition and construction programs.

Unlike budgetary pledges, European nations have a good track record of resourcing their requirements in formal NATO OPLANs.

For example, Germany is currently pushing a $25 Billion purchase through its legislature to procure 1,000 Main Battle Tanks and 2,500 Armored Fighting Vehicles, to equip seven new Armored and Mechanized Brigades (their own Counter-Attack Corps), to meet its additional new force structure requirements of the OPLAN.

That multi-year procurement program is on track for authorization through their budget process by the end of this fiscal year. It is Germany’s biggest single defense procurement since WWII.

This is not just empty talk.

[rxh4n1]

“This is not just empty talk.”

You really believe those lying crapweasels? After all these years of doing nothing and mooching off the USA they’re suddenly going to do this? Besides, don’t get your hopes up. Even if they reeally did it, they won’t attack Russia.

[BeauBo]

“You really believe those lying crapweasels?”

It seems like Germany has turned around big time, and is scaling up significantly. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe.

Poland, the Baltics and the Nordics have all been hitting it hard.

Getting the other big economies (France, UK, Italy) to invest more will each be a challenge, but having formal NATO war plan requirements that they are tasked to resource has been effective in the past. They are more likely to drag their heels, and deliver toward the end of the ten year window, than the beginning. But each has its own dynamics. Of those three, I’d expect France to be the most likely to ramp up sooner. But all of the, are heading the right way.

[EnderWiggin1970]

Germany may be trying to change, but the fiscal realities will hit hard. They just keep kicking the can down the road with government debt, even as their population declines and they deindustrialize under green and anti-Russia policies that drive up energy prices. Throw in US tariffs and populations restive over mass immigration and the result is a continent in decline with increasing risk of simmering revolts flashing into real insurrection.

I think there is a far greater chance that the next NATO action won't be a war with Russia. It will be some NATO country asking for NATO troops and airstrikes to put down an internal popular uprising after another leading politician or political party is banned.