Posted on 06/14/2025 9:28:17 PM PDT by Cronos
Israel’s offensive against Iran is the latest link in a chain of events triggered by the attack launched by Hamas from Gaza into Israel on 7-October-2023. All have successively weakened Tehran and, militarily at least, empowered Israel.
The first was the Israeli offensive in Gaza...within weeks had degraded Hamas sufficiently for the Islamist militant organisation to no longer pose a significant current threat to Israeli citizens.
As Hamas was part of the so-called axis of resistance, a coalition of similar organisations across the Middle East assembled by Tehran over the last decade or so to project power across the region and to deter Israel from striking at Iran’s nuclear programme, this had major regional implications.
Then, in April24, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing seven people. In response, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, launching an ineffective barrage of drones.
By the autumn, with Hamas weakened, Israel could turn against Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based, Iran-supported group that was by far the most potent of the members of the axis of resistance.
September, Israel eliminated the entire leadership echelon of Hezbollah as well as most of its feared missile stockpile and invaded its heartland in southern Lebanon without meeting significant resistance. Even Hezbollah loyalists acknowledged it had suffered a swingeing defeat.
Again, Iran launched another ineffective air offensive against Israel, which responded with airstrikes that wiped out much of Iran’s air defence system.
consequentially, Hezbollah’s sudden weakness meant it was unable to come to the defence of al-Assad Syria, another crucial Iranian ally, when rebels there launched an offensive. The fall of Assad in December ended decades of close relations between Tehran and Damascus. This further weakened the crumbling axis, exposed Iranian proxies in Syria and meant Israeli warplanes could reach targets in Iran more easily.
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
Sure. We heard a similar thing in 2022.
The premise is preposterous. External attacks normally cause a rally around the flag. Did 9/11 cause a regime change in Washington?
Would any sane person have wanted Gore-bore as CIC?
There are massive differences between 911 and this that people in Moscow may not realise.
The Iranian Ayatollahs run a dictatorship that the supermajority of iranians detest.
The Ayatollahs web of allies has been destroyed as has its internal enforcers.
This could lead to the Iranian people tossing out Khamenei
I wish them well. Just leave us out of it.
Iran is a middle income country where the people have a lot to lose. You can dislike your government but it is not reason to let foreigners destroy your country. The majority now that nuclear program is vital for their survival, see Iraq and Libya. You can’t fool everyone all the time.
Oh please, a regime change can only happen with the cutting the head of head mullahs.
I have no animosity with the Persian, those chicks are really hot.
Amen
Bfl
The Iranian people hate their regime.
Israel is destroying the Ayatollahs military bases.
Multiple polls indicate a consistent rejection of nuclear weapons. A 2020 IranPoll survey found 59% of Iranians oppose developing nuclear weapons
Iranians are divided on their government’s intentions. While some see the program as a legitimate pursuit of energy independence, others suspect it’s a cover for weapons development.Posts on X from Iranian expats and opposition figures claim widespread public support for Israel’s actions, with one user asserting that “90%+” of Iranians thank Israel and hope to take to the streets to topple the “tyrannical regime.” Another expat claims civilians are “celebrating every missile that kills a high official.”
How do you think this sort of propaganda resonates with the fate of Libya and Iraq?
I don’t know how conclusions have been reached that the Iranian people are desperate for a different government. They have periodic elections. My recall is that the religious authorities have some capacity to restrict candidates, but there are multiple candidates.
Their most recent election was just last year for the presidency and legislature. Turn out was somewhat low and about 50%. Prior to vote by mail us turnouts were about 65%.
There is pretty much everywhere complaints after elections about questionable this and questionable that with our own in 2020 being almost definitive. So the Iranian elections have that same array of questions.
The week he says they had something like 15,000 candidates for the legislature and that was cut back by their religious council by about 1/3. This has always gone on and turnouts have been higher in the past with no change to this religious council influence, so the reasons for lowering of turnout probably can be sought and some other cause then that religious council, since it’s been around forever.
But I digress. They have an opportunity to regime change about every 4 years and their last opportunity was last year following the death of the president in a helicopter crash. It does seem utterly absurd to presume that bombing them is going to have them choose anything other than a more hard-line option than they would have chosen otherwise.
Lastly I recommend that folks head on over to YouTube and have a look at Iranian grocery stores. Or their big malls in general. There are a lot of bloggers who are doing that in Iran. It gives you a look at what life is like there.
It really is like a RISK game. Rolls dice, take turns, and back and forth.
Maybe, in Israel.
A contrary opinion I heard today on some news show.
He said the Israelis have been attacked a lot, especially in October, 2023, but now to be subjected to frightening uncertainty from air bombardment by large ICBMs day after day may cause them to turn against Netanyahu and tell him this is too nerve wracking and deadly and we want it to end or you to resign.
He might end up right if this doesn’t have dramatic good results for Israel soon.
The scenes of carrying out the rescued baby from the rubble of a building today, and yesterday’s with the old woman in a wheelchair and the report that she and some children were huddled inside when the rescuers had earlier concluded the fallen building was empty, are upsetting.
To me, this is like the British people in WWII being bombarded by “buzz bombs” and bombing runs by German planes at any hour of the day and night. Hard to stay brave.
Again, not the same.
The Ayatollahs are despised and the aim is for ordinary Iranians to toss the mullahs out.
Is it that hard for Muscowite minds to understand rebelling against the Tsar?
Good point. There will 2 regime changes: both Iran and Israel. Iran’s will not be peaceful.
It’s still too early to tell how this will all shake out. The Israelis have said to give them a couple of weeks. There have been no reports of uprising by the Iranians, but that could change as the islamists lose military and economic control, although there’s no indication that is starting to happen.
Why would putin want/allow/enable the nut jobs in iran to have nukes? is the question I keep asking myself perhaps you have a different answer than the one that pops into my mind. The answer that seems logical to me is that the mullah work for putin in outer words they are puppets there is no real Iranian leader other then putin.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.