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Posted on 11/21/2024 4:37:13 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
It is a millennia-old cliché of soldiering that you spend the majority of your time waiting around, interrupted by brief spasms of action. The same can be true of diplomacy. For a year now all parties to the war in Ukraine have been awaiting the results of the US election. Donald Trump’s commanding victory has ended that limbo — and supercharged thinking about an endgame in Ukraine.
Trump has long insisted that ending the war is a priority. For all the understandable questions about the path to a deal, America’s allies are assuming this is a promise he wants to keep. In Brussels there is a growing expectation there will be a ceasefire, if not some form of a settlement, next year. The challenge for Europe’s powers is how to guide the process to an acceptable end. America’s military pre-eminence gives Trump the dominant say in directing the process, but they do have leverage. They just have to use it.
Some will still nobly argue the only acceptable end involves Russian troops retreating to the borders as they were at the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Acquiescing in the formal change of frontiers is out of the question for Ukraine and most of its allies. But increasingly in Kyiv, Washington and across Europe there is a common view of the most likely outcome: a frozen conflict, with the issue of frontiers postponed indefinitely.
People close to Michael Waltz, the congressman who is Trump’s pick as national security adviser, and others among the president-elect’s foreign policy team, have talked of a version of the Korean Line of Control as a credible scenario, with agreed temporary borders. The critical questions are how to enforce such a deal — and how to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the table...
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
I personally think it will be Donbas to Russia or as a second country (maybe East/West Ukraine) and a guarantee that Ukraine does not enter NATO through an update to the NATO charter....or some such.
Trump is going to give Zelensky and Putin an off-ramp and they're going to take it.
Russian and Iran live on their ability to export oil and Nat Gas. A significant increase in US Domestic production will result in a significant drop global prices for the commodities Russia relies on for income.
"Russia's economy is heavily reliant on its vast natural resources, particularly in energy. It is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas, which are major contributors to its GDP and export earnings. This reliance makes its economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices."
Bkmk
Trump is oddly quiet about all this escalation over the last week. That’s unlike him.
Unless the rumors are true that Trump has sent Elon Musk to talk with Putin.
which might also explain why the present fools in charge (namely Sullivan/Blinken) have decided to push escalation - its their last “hurrah,” and just another landmine for the incoming Trump administration.
time will tell
I think you are right.
Macheveilli quote “Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please” comes to mind
This war is a tarbaby both sides would like to be pried free of soon.
Time to let "Europe's powers" lead.
yeah - been watching daily action reports and Russia has been making constant progress depending on the area since at least Sept.
At least 2-3 Ukrainian pockets are currently under significant stress and it doesn’t seem they have any reinforcements to throw in unless they pull from another location already under attack.
Trump is the only guy who's not taking sides. He just wants the war to be over. The only thing that matters is saving lives. There are some things we can discuss later such as what will happen to Donbass. Maybe Donbass will become an independent nation and Russia will get to trade with the West again and they're off the hook for having to bear the cost of reconstruction of Ukraine.
I think Trump will try to throw that in as a deal. Ukraine will remain neutral and they will pledge not to join NATO.
They need Trump to blame reality on.
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It’s time to make W. You-rope go deeply Green this Winter.
What Putin wants is to be free of prosecution risk and no more war in his lifetime. What Ukraine lacks is manpower
Just chatted with neighbors of ours when we were legal residents in Germany. Berlin and Munich are at freezing this day. Frankfurt at -3 C. It will be a cold winter, most likely.
Snow in England this week too.
I’m betting Zelensky already has his villa picked out, and may be already there.
When things heat up, as the Biden bunch seem to want them to, Z will be long gone, with million$$ if not a billion.
You European Nancy boys will not be guiding anything.
I haven’t seen a prediction/projection for the Winter in W. E.
The Rockies & high plains of the USA are going to be a bit chilly over the next 30 days.
My question is how much snow will SW Mont. be getting over the next 5 months?
Trump is oddly quiet about all this escalation over the last week. That’s unlike him.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><
Well, Trump is dead silent about this, because he now has all the dreadful info about Russia’s true intentions, Russia’s anti-americanism, anti-ukraine and anti-Israel agenda.
Israel has recently sent high-tech air defense systems to Ukraine as an anti-russia retaliation. The israelis are fed up with Russia’s pro Iran stance and all its pro-russian proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas).
We are fighting the same enemy:
It’s the Iran-Russia-North Korea Alliance.
Trump knows all this now
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