Victor Davis Hanson: Restoring Deterrence Will Prevent Endless Wars

American Greatness ^ | 14 Nov, 2024 | Victor Davis Hanson

[MtnClimber]

Trump must remind Americans only by deterring enemies can he prevent endless wars.

On January 3, 2020, the Trump administration conducted a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport, killing Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani.

Soleimani had a long record of waging surrogate wars against Americans, especially during the Iraq conflict and its aftermath.

After the Trump cancellation of the Iran Deal, followed by U.S. sanctions, Soleimani reportedly stepped up violence against regional American bases—most of which Trump himself ironically wished to remove.

A few days later, Iran staged a performance-art retaliatory strike against Americans in Iraq and Syria, assuming Trump had no desire for a wider Middle East war.

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So, Iran launched 12 missiles that hit two U.S. airbases in Iraq. Supposedly, Tehran had warned the Trump administration of the impending attacks that killed no Americans. Later reports, however, suggested that some Americans suffered concussions, while more damage was done to the bases than was initially disclosed.

Nonetheless, this Iranian interlude seemed to reflect Trump’s agenda of avoiding “endless wars” in the Middle East while restoring deterrence that prevented, not prompted, full-scale conflicts.

Yet in a second Trump administration, rethreading the deterrence needle without getting into major wars may become far more challenging. The world of today is far more dangerous than when Trump left in 2021.

An inept Biden administration has utterly destroyed U.S. deterrence abroad through both actual and symbolic disasters: the Chinese dressing down of U.S. diplomats in Anchorage; the humiliating skedaddle from Afghanistan; the brazen flight of a Chinese spy balloon across the U.S.; the invasion of Ukraine by Russia; the October 7, 2023 massacre of 1200 Israelis; the serial Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea; the visible restraint of Israel

[MtnClimber]

The democRATs seem to like endless wars. It amazes me when leftists claim President Trump is going to start wars all over the world.

[MtnClimber]

VDH ping

[anton]

The Zalensky debacle proves this. Biden eased into the conflict and slowy escalated out role in order to keep Russia engaged. There was never any chance of Ukraine winning the war short of WWIII with the US and Russia.

Now, Ukraine can cede a trillion dollars of natural resources to Putin, Zalensky can take his billion dollars of graft to Switzerland, citizens can go back to their families, and Russia can increase the EU dependence on Russian energy.

[bert]

There was no Zalenski debacle

[chuckee]

Deterrence is in the eye of the beholder. Before Trump, deterrence came in the form of military deterrence. Trump’s America First philosophy has turned the concept of its head with deterrence based on economic deterrence using our outstanding leverage as the world’s richest nation in GDP terms with the military as backup. Under his leadership, we have never had to go to the military option.

[Brian Griffin]

Invaders now come unarmed and they bear children instead of AK-47s.

SECTION 8 VOUCHER

first US citizen adult:
NONE $0
second US citizen adult:
NONE $0

first US citizen birth gender child, age 2 or more:
Maria $350
second US citizen birth gender child, age 2 or more:
Pedro, Jose $350

total $700 per month

[anton]

Are you one of the FR Zalensky propaganda team? What was the objective of giving Zalensky $100,000,000,000? Invade Russia and Putin surrender?

[Brian Griffin]

“world’s richest nation in GDP terms”

Schoolteacher making $150,000/year including health care and pension rights on the top of the hill.

Male or female?

Can’t tell.

[icclearly]

Biden eased into the conflict and slowy escalated out role in order to keep Russia engaged.

While I suspect we are both very happy about the election results, I am becoming increasingly concerned that his personnel choices may lead us to more of the same in our relationship with the rest of the world. Namely, his picks of mostly neocon supporters who believe that our job as a nation is to police the world.

That route will continue to consume valuable resources that we need to fix our own house. Our house is crumbling: Decaying shithole, crimeridden US cities, little to no border control with over-the-top illegal immigration, and the huge elephant in the room boondoggle, $36 trillion in debt -- and growing every day.

This ain't 1990 no more. Those third-world countries we could threaten and control then have now grown up and have their own ideas. You know, it's much like raising kids. Most of them do grow up and begin making their own decisions. That's the situation on a planet we controlled from 1945 until the early 2000s. That's over.

By the way, Trump is a smart guy, but he don't have the best record for personnel choices.

On a related note, though, Matt Gatz is an excellent, smart choice, whether Trump is playing 4D chess or really wants to see Gatz in that spot. Either way, he probably wins.

[anton]

The Gaetz thing is vintage Trump. Chaos ensues.

As for the Neocons, Trump knows that World peace (at least no new wars) is a promise he cannot afford to fail on. His approach was to starve the belligerents such that it was too costly for them to undertake it. Frankly, it is the best approach now that it is really China and Iran that pose the greatest likelihood to new wars.

The old approach of parking 50,000 US soldiers in Taiwan and daring China to annihilate them is not going to work in today’s environment. And, as others have pointed out, the development of hypersonic missiles makes our carrier based military deterrent a risky reliance.

He will starve China into peace and rreturn Iran to the poverty of 2018.

[PGalt]

HOORAY President Trump! HOORAY Elon Musk! HOORAY Pete Hegseth!

[bert]

Winning

[texas booster]

Ping! Out to the Victor Davis Hanson list

Yet Trump will likely have to rely on drones, missiles, and air strikes and not on major engagements, to deter enemies from aggression—and his domestic critics from claiming he turned into a globalist interventionist.

Endless wars? A look into the future, with Prof Hanson.

FR Index of his articles: Victor Davis Hanson on FR

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American Greatness: Victor Davis Hanson on American Greatness

His website: Victor Davis Hanson

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[Taxman]

ping

[BroJoeK]

anton: "The Zalensky debacle proves this."

Phrases like "the Zelensky debacle" are pure Russian propaganda, nothing else.

How Democrats end wars:

anton: "Biden eased into the conflict and slowy escalated out role in order to keep Russia engaged."

No, Biden is a typical Democrat, similar to LBJ in the 1960s with Vietnam, and to Harry Truman in 1950 with Korea -- they easily bungle into wars without serious plans for how to fight, much less win, them.
Then, when the going gets tough, our Democrats are just as quick to abandon the effort and our allies, and naturally blame Republicans for Democrats' defeat.
That's where we are now in Ukraine.

anton: "There was never any chance of Ukraine winning the war short of WWIII with the US and Russia."

Ukraine already won the invasion Putin began in February 2022, Putin just won't admit it without a major loss of Russian lives and military assets.
That's why Putin keeps launching dozens of "meat wave" assaults every day, with catastrophic losses to Russia for daily gains of a square mile or two of Ukrainian territory.

anton: "Now, Ukraine can cede a trillion dollars of natural resources to Putin..."

Ukrainians will never officially "cede" any of its 2013 borders to Russia, period.
How much coal, oil and gas Russians can extract from the Donbas region under wartime conditions is anybody's guess right now.

Vietnam 1975
Forced by Democrats in Congress:

anton: "Zalensky can take his billion dollars of graft to Switzerland,"

That is pure fact-free Russian propaganda.
The truth is that when the war ends, then Zelensky can run for reelection as president.
Whether Ukrainians will chose to reelect him is 100% up to them, nobody else.
But one historical precedent is Winston Churchill being voted out of office in 1945 because the Brits wanted leadership more focused on their own well-being than international issues.

anton: "citizens can go back to their families, and Russia can increase the EU dependence on Russian energy."

Vlad the Invader has amply demonstrated his malicious intentions and hostile actions.
The Western World would be super-foolish to ever again treat Vlad as if he were a civilized human being.
He's not.

Ukraine's natural resources are largely but not entirely in the eastern oblasts:

[anton]

I see Zalensky’s propaganda team is still active her eon FR. Are you getting paid?

[icclearly]

He will starve China into peace and rreturn Iran to the poverty of 2018.

We probably agree more than we disagree.

Where we may disagree is that we are being led down the primrose path by constant propaganda and lies to "get our thinking right." Been going on for many years.

How about the facts? Why is China a threat? Is it because any news we read tells us that China is a threat? We read it every day and many times a day.

As a country, they've developed into a powerhouse economy in 20 years. That's a miracle considering where they came from, under Mao. The threat to us is economic. As a country, what invasions have they undertaken in recent history that show them to be a kinetic threat? They are both an economic threat and have been a low-cost provider to us for at least the last ten years.

Who really cares what form of government and society they have as long as they mind their own business -- and not ours?

Stop and think about it. The propaganda, supported by the government and a complicit media, has first created monsters out of any country we disagree with and set the stage for military action. You know, like....

-Russia, Russia, Russia
-Iran
-Iraq
-Afghanistan
-Libya
-Syria
-...and many more evil axis little countries

Well, many believe that we've about run the course on that little scheme. It's past time we stopped this craziness, and focus on the huge problems we have at home, and let the rest of the world take care of itself.

Even if we want to solve the world's problems, how can we afford it when we can't pay our own bills?

[anton]

I think I would be an isolationist if external forces made it possible. I don’t belive in urban growth for example. I think cities with no growth are far more livable.

Anyway, you said:

“How about the facts? Why is China a threat? Is it because any news we read tells us that China is a threat? We read it every day and many times a day.”

Frankly, I think the Covid episode was a Chinese prank gone out of control. They turned it loose on the World for a purpose.

[icclearly]

Frankly, I think the Covid episode was a Chinese prank gone out of control. They turned it loose on the World for a purpose.

We agree it was very nefarious! Insanely nefarious.

We probably disagree on who was behind it. I think Rand Paul would agree with me :-).