Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Election Analysts Are Missing One Huge Indicator That Could Predict a Trump Win
https://pjmedia.com ^ | 11/5/2024 | Rick Moran

Posted on 11/05/2024 8:54:58 AM PST by bitt

Despite what you hear from Democrats, voting in the United States is ridiculously easy. Mail-in ballots, absentee ballots, provisional ballots if you're not sure, and ranked-choice ballots if you want to confuse everyone.

But before all that, there's registering to vote. This, too, is ridiculously easy, although potential voters must make an effort to sign up.

The funny thing about voter registrations is that they supply a "tell" for how an election will go. This is especially true in states where voters register by party.

Alex Castellanos, senior aide to the campaigns of Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, told Fox News’s “Special Report” that the polls may have missed a "wavelet" of GOP enthusiasm.

“What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” the longtime strategist said late Sunday.

“I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?”

Castellanos believes that the failure of pollsters to recognize the huge boost in GOP registrations might be one of the most important undercurrents of this election.

“I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation,” Castellanos said.

New York Post:

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionanalyst; trumpwin
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-24 next last

1 posted on 11/05/2024 8:54:58 AM PST by bitt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; bitt; ...

p


2 posted on 11/05/2024 8:55:17 AM PST by bitt (<img src=' 'width=30%>)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bitt

What they refuse to see: Donald Dems.


3 posted on 11/05/2024 8:56:54 AM PST by mewzilla (Never give up; never surrender!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bitt

Two encouraging factors:
1. Thirty of the Thirty-one states that have voter registration by party have seen registration movement toward Republicans.
2. Massive increase in early voting and vote by mail. Republicans woke up to how Democrats steal elections and are adopting their tactics (be legally).


4 posted on 11/05/2024 9:01:27 AM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“President Trump sells out Madison Square Garden -- Kamala sells out America”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mewzilla

And cheating democrats. It’s ballots, not votes, that get counted.

Still, I think today will be too big to rig.


5 posted on 11/05/2024 9:01:52 AM PST by Alas Babylon! (Repeal the Patriot Act; Abolish the DHS; reform FBI top to bottom!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: bitt
Election Analysts Are Missing One Huge Indicator That Could Predict a Trump Win

“What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” the longtime strategist said late Sunday.

This has been the topic of discussion for the last few weeks. Not really sure this indicator is being missed, maybe by the left because they choose not to look.

6 posted on 11/05/2024 9:07:24 AM PST by frogjerk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bitt

Stocks are up across the board today. IMHO Wall Street expecting Trump win.


7 posted on 11/05/2024 9:09:55 AM PST by Bobbyvotes (I already voted by mail for Trump/Vance in 2024. Hope they win.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bitt

Ya - common sense.


8 posted on 11/05/2024 9:19:26 AM PST by Mlheureux
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mewzilla

I’m not resting until I see the WIN.

I dont trust the desire that so many young women have to kill their babieas or future babies.

Barring that, we win.


9 posted on 11/05/2024 9:20:26 AM PST by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: bitt
“I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm ...

I've been praying for a tsunami of votes.

10 posted on 11/05/2024 9:20:38 AM PST by gitmo (If your theology doesn’t become your biography, what good is it?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: frogjerk

I keep thinking about all the Dems that registered as Republicans to vote for Haley in the primary. That is where a lot of these could be coming from. No need for them to vote in Democrat primaries anymore, because they will simply vote for whomever the party tells them to.


11 posted on 11/05/2024 9:21:35 AM PST by Codeflier (Don't worry....be happy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: ProtectOurFreedom

21 million illegal alien voters have been imported to offset the Republican increase


12 posted on 11/05/2024 9:29:17 AM PST by tinamina (Remember when Biden said “we have developed the most sophisticated voting fraud system ever”? )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: bitt
What it's like to live in a 1-party, totalitarian state:

In California, the tyrants have recently unilaterally changed the voter registration rule. Now, if you fail to the register by the deadline election officials advise that you should vote anyway; that they will hold your ballot until they update the voter roll, then apply your vote retroactively.

13 posted on 11/05/2024 9:30:08 AM PST by glennaro (2024: The Year of The Reckoning, lest our Republic succumb to the "progressive" disease of the Left)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bitt

Well my wife was denied her right as an expat to vote. I know it wouldn’t change anything in Democrat blue Colorado but still annoying.


14 posted on 11/05/2024 9:33:28 AM PST by Sam Gamgee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dp0622

I’ve never understood why abortion would be the top priority for voting for someone. Of all the things wrong with this government, a free abortion wouldn’t be my top priority.


15 posted on 11/05/2024 9:37:31 AM PST by abbastanza (Oh boy. Can’t wait. Go nuts kids)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Codeflier

I actually ran the numbers on registered Democrat Haley voters since this has come up before....

They are about one third of one percent of the vote nationwide.

Reasons:

—Many states had caucuses
—Many states had “closed” Republican primaries
—Registered Democrats were one quarter of Haley votes in actual primaries
—In most states Haley got crushed by huge margins

The only “swing” state where this could be a factor (imho) is New Hampshire.


16 posted on 11/05/2024 9:37:35 AM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Codeflier
I keep thinking about all the Dems that registered as Republicans to vote for Haley in the primary. That is where a lot of these could be coming from.

It depends. I don't think the big push for the GOP to register new voters was until the convention was over. I'd like to see the registration numbers pre and post convention

17 posted on 11/05/2024 9:43:59 AM PST by frogjerk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Codeflier

Just saw this - see post #16


18 posted on 11/05/2024 9:45:46 AM PST by frogjerk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: abbastanza

It’s all about “Fighting The Patriarchy”, or something.


19 posted on 11/05/2024 9:49:27 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Bobbyvotes

“Stocks are up across the board today. IMHO Wall Street expecting Trump win.”

Stocks are up today because they were down the last three days.


20 posted on 11/05/2024 9:53:55 AM PST by TexasGator (I l I l)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-24 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson