Posted on 11/04/2024 7:04:23 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
Readers of my Post piece predicting Donald Trump will win and Republicans will have a good night in congressional contests may wonder how I derived the numbers underlying those calls.
Here I examine that in detail and show why getting the balance between Democrats and Republicans among voters — partisan preference — is the key unlocking the polls.
Polling’s theoretical accuracy relies on the statistics underlying the relation between a random sample and the broader population it’s drawn from. But surveyors can no longer get truly random samples because cellphones and the Internet have changed how people live.
Pollsters have reacted to this in a variety of ways, but they all rely on something called weighting the sample. That means they use different ways to get their sample — calling a mixture of cellphones and landlines, for example, or using online samples. It also means taking those raw data and assigning different values — “weights” — to each respondent based on what share of the likely electorate that person possesses.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Glad to be done with all the frickin ads!
I will be glad when the onslaught of texts stops - I am missing important texts because of it.
BTW: Neither I, nor anyone else I know, has ever been called by a pollsters. Not that I’d ever speak to them, phone would be slammed down.
Witch doctors use more accurate measures than pollsters—goat entrails are a better measure than pollsters “hunches” on “weighting”.
My mom is getting a lot of calls
Over the years a couple of pollsters tried to talk to me.
I hung up in a nanosecond.
My business is my business.
All straws in the wind, but we have to acknowledge they’re blowing in the right direction. This guy is a pal of Andrew Klavan and last time I chose to disbelieve his analysis that there wasn’t going to be a big wave. So, no one is psychic, but this guy has credibility with me at least
All straws in the wind, but we have to acknowledge they’re blowing in the right direction. This guy is a pal of Andrew Klavan and last time I chose to disbelieve his analysis that there wasn’t going to be a big wave. So, no one is psychic, but this guy has credibility with me at least
“But surveyors can no longer get truly random samples because cellphones and the Internet have changed how people live.
Pollsters have reacted to this in a variety of ways, but they all rely on something called weighting the sample. “
Ah ... fudge factor ... which means they haven’t a clue who is going to win this thing.
p
If the methodology is suspect—and this article shows that it is and must be—why would we trust any pollster?
At the end of the day they are guessing—and not even based on actual data.
This is a profession that is a disgrace.
That said—polling can be useful for things like consumer production evaluation or other areas where the bias of the pollster is out of the picture.
“Process” polls are probably fine as well—like “When will you vote” where sampling issues probably won’t mess up the numbers too badly.
In the business world bad polling has real consequences—can cost corporations many millions if they launch a dud new product as an example.
In the political world the bad pollsters keep coming back from the dead—like a horror movie.
NB: Nothing to do with wives and girlfriends.
It's Wild Ass Guess and Scientigic Wild Ass Guess
I hung up in a nanosecond.
________
That’s why the pollsters are confused. I believe Reps are more likely to hung up. Welfare queens have all the time available to talk their preferences.
Interesting, isn’t it? We’re in a dumpster fire of issues, but we’re supposedly tied up between polar opposite campaigns. One side literally caused all the dumpster fire issues and the other side has been proven to put out the dumpster fires. And we are tied between the two options?
Somehow the very real concerns of the economy, illegal aliens, drugs and crime, international instability and governmental corruption are falling to the wayside by half of the voting public because that half of the voting public thinks that the fake issues of abortion/women’s rights and the “threat to democracy” along with electing the “first female/black” (regardless of how this moron lies) are more important.
If that is true, than this country (thanks to a completely corrupt media, government and Democrat party) is irreversibly gone . . .
post of the day
I wonder how much “weighting” the pollster use to determine a Trump voter if the person refuses to talk to them....
Polls are all bullshit. Some people just can’t understand this simple fact.
The Polls are fantasy and in bed with MSM narrative. My grown daughter wouldn’t even admit to voting for DJT because our youth has been demonized for having conservative values. She eventually told me but it was like pulling teeth. The silent majority is alive and stronger than ever.
Does she have a landline?
My mother had a landline up until the day she died a few years ago - she never had pollster call. Not sure if they can access cell phones or not. Doesn’t matter - I don’t answer phone calls unless I can see who it is.
They call her cell
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